Based on recent political developments, we are reducing our fourth-quarter forecast for gross domestic product to 2.25% growth. … READ MORE >
Covid-19
Tracking the coronavirus: Preparing for the deluge
Given that many states do not report on weekends, these figures likely understate the true level of infection. At the current rate of spread, and unless the public adheres to strict social distancing practices, the RSM model looks for the total number of U.S. cases to surpass 7.8 million by the second week of October. … READ MORE >
Permanent job losses mount as pandemic endures
The number of people who have lost either a permanent or a temporary job increased for the seventh consecutive month in September, another indication that hopes for a quick recovery are misplaced. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: The prime working age of discontent
While women have joined the workforce en masse in recent decades, men — and their sons who could once rely on factory jobs to support a family — have seen those jobs disappear as corporate profits increased. … READ MORE >
U.S. employment report: Rehiring slows as permanent job losses pile up
While the U.S. economy has rebounded and a nascent recovery is underway, the pace of workers being recalled is slowing and gains in the labor market are likely to become more difficult to come by. … READ MORE >
Trump tests positive: Assessing its impact on the economy via financial markets
At this point, we think that any impact on the economy can be measured through the financial channel, the confidence channel and through consumer spending, with a lag. … READ MORE >
U.S. personal income dropped 2.7% as income supplements faded
The U.S. August personal income and spending report partially captured the loss of roughly $60 billion in income supplements as personal income declined 2.7%. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims: Improvement stalls at elevated levels
There were 837,000 initial jobless claims for the week ending Sept. 26, and 1.487 million if one includes the 650,000 first-time claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance, the Labor Department reported on Thursday. … READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index rises for second month in a row
The RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index rose for the second month in a row in September as economic conditions continued to improve. … READ MORE >
Managed care organizations weather the coronavirus storm
It’s no mystery that major parts of the health care sector took a significant hit to the bottom line this year as hospitals postponed elective procedures to make way for coronavirus patients. But one area of the health care sector — managed care organizations — has weathered the storm quite well. … READ MORE >