The prospect of Britain’s departure from the European Union has created uncertainty in the economy and volatility in financial markets. Disruptions to the UK supply chain—a system built over decades within a European common market—will ultimately create losses for consumers through higher prices and diminished consumption choices. In this issue of The Real Economy, we assess the impact of Brexit on the UK economy, via our new Brexit Stress Index. The index is composed of six financial variables whose weekly performance indicates the market’s assessment of Brexit’s effect on trade, wealth, the business cycle and corporate profits.
In addition, we provide a first glimpse of new data about cybersecurity from the first-quarter RSM US Middle Market Business Index survey. For middle market companies, data breaches are creeping upward, according to the MMBI report. We also offer our monthly update on growth using our new real GDP index. Download the full report.