Conversations at the recent ICR Conference 2026, one of the restaurant industry’s premier investor gatherings, underscored that the restaurant industry is navigating a more discerning, more demanding consumer. Against a backdrop of persistent inflation, geopolitical uncertainty and fragmented artificial intelligence adoption, attendees repeatedly returned to five themes shaping the year ahead.
1. Consumers seek strategic value
Over the last few years, dining-out costs have risen faster than grocery-store prices. Over the past year, the cost of eating out increased 4% year over year, while food at home increased 2.1% year over year, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Value has become a primary decision driver for restaurant guests, but not in a one-size-fits-all way. Operators are increasingly competing on how effectively they deliver everyday affordability without compromising food quality or the dining experience. Rather than chasing deep discounts, which can erode margins and devalue their brand, savvy operators are refining menu design, portion strategy, and promotional cadence to make guests feel confident they’re getting their money’s worth.
This shift has fundamentally changed consumer behavior. When eating out becomes less habitual and more deliberate, the decision of where to eat becomes that much more intentional and selective. Every visit needs to feel justified, which means businesses need to deliver consistent quality every time.
When eating out typically costs two to three times more than cooking at home, restaurants must provide not just food, but a convenient, worthwhile experience that feels like a treat. Companies that deliver on this strategic value outperform their peers in traffic.
2. Operators compete on experience, not just price
The top-performing concepts understand that value extends beyond pricing and focuses on the entire guest experience. Guests now expect both consistency and care. This means reliable food quality, minimal friction and hospitality that feels genuine rather than scripted.
As dining out has become less frequent, tolerance for mediocrity has evaporated. Operators who consistently deliver on these fundamentals will capture market share, while those who have let the experience become purely transactional are losing ground.
3. Resilient brands build supply chain flexibility
Trade and regulatory unpredictability remain a significant strategic challenge for restaurant operators, as shifting trade policies, evolving tariffs and geopolitical tensions continue to disrupt supply chains. Operators increasingly recognize that even when conditions feel temporarily stable, rapid policy changes can re-emerge without warning, affecting ingredient sourcing, costs and operational planning.
The most resilient operators are building flexible supply chains, pre-qualifying backup vendors, maintaining rolling forecasts for critical ingredients, and deploying data-enabled risk management, positioning themselves to adapt quickly and maintain a consistent guest experience despite external shocks.
4. Leaders shift from buying AI tools to building AI capabilities
Artificial intelligence adoption in the restaurant industry is accelerating, but the maturity gap between operators is widening. Larger, digitally advanced restaurant brands are already embedding AI into customer journeys, pricing, staffing and inventory decisions, using data-driven insights to personalize experiences and streamline operations. Meanwhile, many middle market companies remain focused on building the foundational data infrastructure, governance and analytics capabilities necessary to unlock AI’s value.
If businesses aren’t actively transforming their data into a strategic asset, they’re already behind. In 2026, the winning restaurant brands will be those that shift from buying AI tools to building AI capabilities. Success depends on investing in data architects, governance frameworks and analytics talent to translate insights into action.
5. Smart operators outsource to unlock strategic capacity
As companies work to deliver value, elevate the guest experience and build resilience amid uncertainty, many are also rethinking where to focus strategic resources. As labor costs have risen amid a tighter labor market, a clear trend is the increased use of outsourced back-office operations to create capacity for what matters most. By shifting accounting, finance, payroll, compliance and other administrative functions to trusted third parties, restaurant leaders can remove operational distractions from customers and frontline teams.
What has changed is that outsourcing today is no longer just about labor arbitrage—it has become a gateway to technology and AI-enabled capabilities. Third-party providers offer proven tools, automation and data platforms that companies can leverage without managing vendor selection, implementation or maintenance. When executed with the right partners, this approach reduces complexity, accelerates access to modern capabilities and frees management teams to focus on delivering consistent experiences and long-term growth.
The takeaway
Success ahead hinges on focus and flexibility. Winning restaurant brands deliver compelling value without eroding the guest experience. Smart decisions on where technology, and AI in particular, delivers tangible returns will separate winners from laggards. Simplifying internal operations is a strategic advantage, freeing teams to concentrate on guests and growth rather than administrative complexity. In an environment defined by uncertainty and rising expectations, those who align operations with consumer priorities will win.
RSM US contributor: Chris Banse, National Restaurant Sector Lead
For more, check out our retail and restaurant outlook.
