Rising energy prices will weigh on consumer spending and gross domestic product growth in the U.K. next year. At its meeting on Thursday, the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee should be more concerned about the negative impact on the economic recovery from soaring energy prices than about the upward impact on headline inflation. The committee ... READ MORE >
United Kingdom
RSM UK Financial Conditions Index: Gimme shelter
Financial conditions in the U.K. have settled into a groove that would be rivaled only by the late Charlie Watts. As a result of this stability, the RSM UK Financial Conditions Index in August moved to its highest level since 2014, reaching 1.1 standard deviations above levels of risk that are normally priced into financial assets. Volatility in ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Shipping costs reach 11-year high
The rise of the delta variant in Asia combined with surging demand around the world have sent shipping costs higher, which will show up in higher costs of imported goods as supply chain problems persist. The Baltic Dry Index, a metric of shipping costs, has reached an 11-year high as the resurgence of the coronavirus has impeded the movement of goods from ... READ MORE >
RSM UK Financial Conditions Index remains stout despite risk of virus resurgence
The Bank of England maintained its accommodative policy stance in its announcement on Aug. 5, keeping short-term interest rates at the zero-bound while continuing to put downward pressure on long-term interest rates through purchases and holdings of fixed-income securities. As a result, our RSM UK Financial Conditions Index stands just below one ... READ MORE >
RSM UK Financial Conditions Index: A milestone after 7 years of stress
Financial markets continue to signal little to no unease over the spread of the delta variant in the latest manifestation of the global pandemic as the United Kingdom moves toward a wider reopening on July 19. Despite the public health risks around the variant, financial conditions imply rising risk appetite and are supportive of growth as the economy enters ... READ MORE >
UK economic chartbook: Consumers gain more confidence
Mass vaccinations have stimulated a revitalization of the domestic U.K. economy in recent months, which is resulting in a rapid normalization of consumer behavior. The manufacturing sector had already begun recouping losses during the pandemic, and the increased consumer spending will aid in sustaining a recovery. This underscores our expectation that ... READ MORE >
RSM UK Financial Conditions Index: A third month of stability in May
The British financial sector and economy are showing signs of entering a new phase in the business cycle. We have consistently made the case that V stood for vaccine and not the shape of the recovery. Thanks to the life sciences community and National Institutes of Health, there is now a vaccine, and we can focus on economic recovery and expansion in the ... READ MORE >
RSM UK Financial Conditions Index: Setting the stage for recovery
The U.K.’s vaccination and shutdown programs are an apparent success. The percentage of the most vulnerable people, ages 50 and over, who have received at least one dose of the vaccine ranges from 87% in London to 98% in Scotland, and the results speak for themselves. Newly reported COVID-19 cases have dropped from 60,000 a day in January to 2,000 in ... READ MORE >
Global economy to expand by 6% as vaccinations accelerate
The events that shook the global economy to its core last year—policy errors and a pandemic occurring at the end of a decade-long business cycle—finally appear to be bottoming out. Although those events are still running their course, the rapid response by the scientific community and by policymakers has created the basis for a public health and ... READ MORE >
Globalization and the failure of the Super League
The collapse of the European Super League on Tuesday, less than 48 hours after it was announced, should provide a valuable lesson for those who support the movement of ideas, capital and people across borders to expand opportunity and prosperity. Not everything needs to be globalized, and when something is, it must occur in a legitimate fashion and ... READ MORE >