Financial markets continue to signal little to no unease over the spread of the delta variant in the latest manifestation of the global pandemic as the United Kingdom moves toward a wider reopening on July 19. Despite the public health risks around the variant, financial conditions imply rising risk appetite and are supportive of growth as the economy enters ... READ MORE >
United Kingdom
UK economic chartbook: Consumers gain more confidence
Mass vaccinations have stimulated a revitalization of the domestic U.K. economy in recent months, which is resulting in a rapid normalization of consumer behavior. The manufacturing sector had already begun recouping losses during the pandemic, and the increased consumer spending will aid in sustaining a recovery. This underscores our expectation that ... READ MORE >
RSM UK Financial Conditions Index: A third month of stability in May
The British financial sector and economy are showing signs of entering a new phase in the business cycle. We have consistently made the case that V stood for vaccine and not the shape of the recovery. Thanks to the life sciences community and National Institutes of Health, there is now a vaccine, and we can focus on economic recovery and expansion in the ... READ MORE >
RSM UK Financial Conditions Index: Setting the stage for recovery
The U.K.’s vaccination and shutdown programs are an apparent success. The percentage of the most vulnerable people, ages 50 and over, who have received at least one dose of the vaccine ranges from 87% in London to 98% in Scotland, and the results speak for themselves. Newly reported COVID-19 cases have dropped from 60,000 a day in January to 2,000 in ... READ MORE >
Global economy to expand by 6% as vaccinations accelerate
The events that shook the global economy to its core last year—policy errors and a pandemic occurring at the end of a decade-long business cycle—finally appear to be bottoming out. Although those events are still running their course, the rapid response by the scientific community and by policymakers has created the basis for a public health and ... READ MORE >
Globalization and the failure of the Super League
The collapse of the European Super League on Tuesday, less than 48 hours after it was announced, should provide a valuable lesson for those who support the movement of ideas, capital and people across borders to expand opportunity and prosperity. Not everything needs to be globalized, and when something is, it must occur in a legitimate fashion and ... READ MORE >
RSM UK Financial Conditions Index improves even as the economy lags behind
The U.K. public appears to be winning its race with the pandemic. Newly reported cases of COVID-19 infections have plunged since January’s post-holiday surge and are now averaging 5,200 per day. The number of deaths has dipped as well, to 62 per day. These are encouraging signs that the public has taken safety measures to heart. The decline in cases ... READ MORE >
RSM UK Financial Conditions Index is positive as budget is introduced
While the medical and life sciences communities were doing the remarkable work of developing three effective coronavirus vaccines over the past year, global monetary and fiscal authorities have been laying the groundwork for an economic recovery. With the introduction of the latest U.K. budget, we anticipate that financial conditions are conducive to a ... READ MORE >
Private equity and venture capital stay resilient in the EU and UK
After a year of upheaval, private equity and venture capital dealmaking ended last year on a strong note in the European Union and the U.K., and that momentum is poised to continue. Consider where the industry stood at the beginning of 2020. After the Conservative Party’s decisive victory in late 2019 and the promise of a deal on Brexit, private ... READ MORE >
With negative real interest rates, the time for U.K. firms to invest in their future is now
A confluence of events and policy shifts has coalesced into a unique opportunity for the U.K. government and U.K. firms to make long-term strategic investments. The cost of new debt – when taken on at today's extremely low interest rates and then adjusted for inflation – will be negative over the life of the debt. This implies that fiscal and monetary ... READ MORE >