The U.K.’s vaccination and shutdown programs are an apparent success. The percentage of the most vulnerable people, ages 50 and over, who have received at least one dose of the vaccine ranges from 87% in London to 98% in Scotland, and the results speak for themselves. Newly reported COVID-19 cases have dropped from 60,000 a day in January to 2,000 in ... READ MORE >
United Kingdom
Global economy to expand by 6% as vaccinations accelerate
The events that shook the global economy to its core last year—policy errors and a pandemic occurring at the end of a decade-long business cycle—finally appear to be bottoming out. Although those events are still running their course, the rapid response by the scientific community and by policymakers has created the basis for a public health and ... READ MORE >
Globalization and the failure of the Super League
The collapse of the European Super League on Tuesday, less than 48 hours after it was announced, should provide a valuable lesson for those who support the movement of ideas, capital and people across borders to expand opportunity and prosperity. Not everything needs to be globalized, and when something is, it must occur in a legitimate fashion and ... READ MORE >
RSM UK Financial Conditions Index improves even as the economy lags behind
The U.K. public appears to be winning its race with the pandemic. Newly reported cases of COVID-19 infections have plunged since January’s post-holiday surge and are now averaging 5,200 per day. The number of deaths has dipped as well, to 62 per day. These are encouraging signs that the public has taken safety measures to heart. The decline in cases ... READ MORE >
RSM UK Financial Conditions Index is positive as budget is introduced
While the medical and life sciences communities were doing the remarkable work of developing three effective coronavirus vaccines over the past year, global monetary and fiscal authorities have been laying the groundwork for an economic recovery. With the introduction of the latest U.K. budget, we anticipate that financial conditions are conducive to a ... READ MORE >
Private equity and venture capital stay resilient in the EU and UK
After a year of upheaval, private equity and venture capital dealmaking ended last year on a strong note in the European Union and the U.K., and that momentum is poised to continue. Consider where the industry stood at the beginning of 2020. After the Conservative Party’s decisive victory in late 2019 and the promise of a deal on Brexit, private ... READ MORE >
With negative real interest rates, the time for U.K. firms to invest in their future is now
A confluence of events and policy shifts has coalesced into a unique opportunity for the U.K. government and U.K. firms to make long-term strategic investments. The cost of new debt – when taken on at today's extremely low interest rates and then adjusted for inflation – will be negative over the life of the debt. This implies that fiscal and monetary ... READ MORE >
RSM UK Financial Conditions Index reaches neutral – a platform for growth
Despite the dark winter caused by the global pandemic, financial conditions in England have moved in a constructive direction that can support a near-term economic recovery and expansion in 2022. Volatility in the U.K. financial markets is subsiding, and performance among the markets appears to suggest a platform upon which the economy can begin the ... READ MORE >
Bank of England policy rate decision: reduced economic outlook, negative interest rate policy not imminent
Reduced growth amid a more optimistic outlook later this year is the primary takeaway from the February rate decision by the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee. This implies a slower pace of growth near 5% in 2021 followed by a rapid rebound closer to 7% in 2022. Moreover, the central bank does not intend to tighten policy until there is significant ... READ MORE >
Bank of England: Deteriorating economic outlook and negative interest rates
The Bank of England at its meeting on Thursday is expected to keep its policy matrix unchanged as it downgrades its economic outlook and publishes its view on the use of negative interest rates. We expect the central bank to keep its policy rate at 0.1% and the total asset purchase program -- an important tool to stimulate the economy and ensure that ... READ MORE >