Jobless claims and housing starts blew past forecasts in the most recent reports released Thursday, both showing stronger-than-expected results amid a looming economic downturn. New jobless claims fell by 20,000 last week to 192,000 following an unexpected spike in the previous week, ... READ MORE >
Real Estate
Real estate and the middle market go hand in hand. Developers in commercial, residential and industrial markets provide the economic fuel to transform local economies, building infrastructure that leads to new business and job creation.
Generative AI: Disruptive or flawed innovation for real estate?
It’s hard to imagine the passage above is a direct output of innovative technology, ChatGPT. We were intrigued by what the chatbot driven by generative artificial intelligence could tell us about digital transformation in real estate, and it took only seconds for it to come back with the ... READ MORE >
Fed’s survey of loan officers points to caution in the middle market
Even as financial conditions have eased in recent months, helping to spur a rally in equity markets, one area of America’s real economy has been flashing warning signs: the commercial and industrial loan market. Demand for these loans, an important engine of growth, plunged last year as lending ... READ MORE >
Real estate dealmaking adjusts amid fears of a frozen market
Dealmaking was supposed to be the name of the game at Information Management Network’s recent investment conference. The reality is that there are few deals to be made, despite an abundance of dry powder in the market. One industry veteran who co-led a panel at the event, IMN’s 19th Annual Winter ... READ MORE >
Home sales dropped by 17.8% last year in biggest drop since 2008
Sales of existing homes fell for the 11th straight month in December, finishing their worst year since 2008, the National Association of Realtors reported on Friday. Still, there is some room left for sales to fall further as the Federal Reserve has signaled that it will continue to tighten monetary ... READ MORE >
Housing starts fell last year for the first time since 2009
The housing market continued to show little sign of reaching a bottom in December as housing starts and permits fell again to cap off the first year of decline since 2009. Housing starts dropped by 1.4% on an annualized month-ago basis, while building permits fell by 1.6%. For all of last year, housing ... READ MORE >
Housing starts and permits fall as the correction continues
Housing starts dropped for the third month in a row in November as the housing market continued to be in correction mode, the Commerce Department reported on Tuesday. There were 1.4 million residential starts on an annualized basis, falling short of the 1.7 million that we estimate are needed to meet ... READ MORE >
U.S. economic outlook: Recession on the horizon
Our baseline forecast for the American economy next year calls for a mild recession by the second half of the year as the impact of higher interest rates sets in. For some time, our forecast has included a 65% probability of recession over the next 12 months. Next year, we expect a 0.1% decline in ... READ MORE >
When will inflation slow? Pay attention to housing.
A correction in the housing market as mortgage rates reach 20-year highs is underway. While overall price growth has cooled, though, the housing components inside the two inflation reports—the Consumer Price Index and the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index—have shown no signs of ... READ MORE >
What’s behind the slowdown in construction hiring?
Changes in construction employment are often viewed as an indicator of economic activity. Before a recession, the construction industry typically sheds workers, as developers slow their projects amid a slowing economy. From this perspective, the October jobs report would seem to represent a peak, as ... READ MORE >