Our baseline forecast for the American economy next year calls for a mild recession by the second half of the year as the impact of higher interest rates sets in. For some time, our forecast has included a 65% probability of recession over the next 12 months. Next year, we expect a 0.1% decline in ... READ MORE >
Real Estate
Real estate and the middle market go hand in hand. Developers in commercial, residential and industrial markets provide the economic fuel to transform local economies, building infrastructure that leads to new business and job creation.
When will inflation slow? Pay attention to housing.
A correction in the housing market as mortgage rates reach 20-year highs is underway. While overall price growth has cooled, though, the housing components inside the two inflation reports—the Consumer Price Index and the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index—have shown no signs of ... READ MORE >
What’s behind the slowdown in construction hiring?
Changes in construction employment are often viewed as an indicator of economic activity. Before a recession, the construction industry typically sheds workers, as developers slow their projects amid a slowing economy. From this perspective, the October jobs report would seem to represent a peak, as ... READ MORE >
U.S. new home sales fell 10.9% in September
New home sales dropped 10.9% to 603,000 in September from August, continuing the downtrend since a recent high in late 2020, according to data from the Census Bureau. Since the start of the year, U.S. sales have dropped more than 28% in total as housing demand has slumped. The steep rise in mortgage ... READ MORE >
Concerns over Canada’s housing market weigh on real estate investors
The growing uncertainty facing Canada's housing market was the focus of the 6th Annual Real Estate Canada Forum held on Oct. 6 in Toronto. The closed-door forum brought together real estate investors amid concerns over continued interest rate hikes and the resulting market cool-down. A key takeaway was ... READ MORE >
Electric vehicle infrastructure creates opportunities for real estate
The adoption of electric vehicles has grown tremendously over the past year and a half. The trend will accelerate as consumer demand, which is being fueled by higher gasoline prices, tax incentives, funding from the Inflation Reduction Act, and the increased desire for environmental sustainability, ... READ MORE >
U.S. housing starts continue to fall amid rate hikes
New housing starts fell by 8.1% in September as the impact of rising mortgage rates worked through the housing market, the Census Bureau reported on Wednesday. There were 1.4 million housing starts on an annualized basis in September, significantly lower than the 1.7 million that we see as needed to ... READ MORE >
Accounting for climate risks in business decisions
After a slow start, hurricane season has taken a significant toll in North America this year. Hurricane Fiona devastated Canada’s Atlantic provinces, leaving hundreds of thousands of people without power. Less than a week later, Hurricane Ian laid waste to vast areas of Florida and the Southeastern United ... READ MORE >
Pending home sales fall to their lowest level since April 2020
Pending home sales in the United States fell by 2% in August, the third straight monthly decline amid a steep rise in mortgage rates, according to data released Wednesday by the National Association of Realtors. On a year-ago basis, pending sales fell by a whopping 22.6%, continuing to signal more room ... READ MORE >
Canada housing starts fall amid rising rates
Canada’s housing starts fell to 267,443 in August, a 3% drop from July, continuing the decline in the housing sector because of rising interest rates, according to data released on Friday by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation. The drop, which stemmed entirely from starts of multiunit ... READ MORE >