The Real Economy Blog

Real Estate

Real estate and the middle market go hand in hand. Developers in commercial, residential and industrial markets provide the economic fuel to transform local economies, building infrastructure that leads to new business and job creation.

Is the next mortgage bubble imminent? Not so fast, the debt data tells us

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Residential mortgages totaled $9.4 trillion as of June 30 and overall consumer debt reached an all-time high of $13.86 trillion, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Residential mortgage debt eclipsed the 2008 peak of $9.29 trillion, fueling the belief among some market watchers that a housing crash apocalypse they’ve been counting on since the ... READ MORE >

Low treasury rate is a boost for home builders, neutral for commercial real estate

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Bonds have been declining in recent weeks following a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Federal Reserve and expectations of further cuts amid rising concerns over an impending recession.  Recession concerns were underscored Wednesday by the inversion of the U.S. and U.K. two- and 10-year yield curves and the fall of 30-year Treasury yields to 2.07%, a record ... READ MORE >

Homebuilder confidence indicators rise but still lag 2018

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The homebuilder confidence index rose to 65 in July, according to the National Association of Homebuilders, as a dovish Federal Reserve is expected to reduce interest rates later this month and potentially two more times by the end of 2019. But while confidence has increased, homebuilders are still facing headwinds related to land, labor and tariffs, all of ... READ MORE >

Cautious builders continue to mute housing supply

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Key government housing metrics continue to show year-over-year declines. Housing starts fell 11.2% in May, according to the Commerce Department, while permits declined 3.8%. These numbers strongly imply there will be a fall back toward 1.22 million housing completions on an annualized basis in the coming months. Ultimately the housing shortage is not ... READ MORE >

Homebuilder confidence supported by rise in housing starts

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There is good news for the U.S. housing market that saw a rough end to 2018. Domestic housing starts rose 5.7 percent to 1.235 million in April, while permits grew at a more modest 0.5 percent to 1.296 million. The growth was primarily driven in the Northeast and Midwest—drying out after a wet and soggy start to the 2019 building season—with month-over-month ... READ MORE >

Key construction index shows improvement, but builder cost hurdles remain

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The National Association of Homebuilders’ Housing Market Index rose 3 points to 66 in May—a seven month high—helped by lower mortgage rates and improved sales of new homes. The increase added momentum to this year’s upward trend following a low at the end of 2018. A reading above 50 indicates more builders see conditions as good than poor. While stable ... READ MORE >

Time to get real on GDP and gasoline prices–read The Real Economy

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In this issue of The Real Economy, RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas reviews leading indicators of economic activity as the United States heads into the late innings of this current business cycle. He also examines the impact of rising gasoline prices, which are pinching consumers' wallets just in time for the holiday driving season. And our new ... READ MORE >