The U.S. agriculture sector has been hard hit in recent years due to changing global demand and the onset of the Trump administration’s trade conflicts. Growth of real net farm income in 2019 dollars has been negative in nine of the past 19 years. Since 2011 the major agriculture states in the Midwest have experienced negative growth, while California—the ... READ MORE >
Consumer Products
From retail to restaurants, consumer products includes many sectors and subsectors. The industry includes many well-known brands with loyal customers and employees, and ownership structures ranging from family owned businesses to public and PE-backed companies.
Financial crisis monitor: agriculture sector at risk
A little over a year ago we sat down with a senior Trump administration official to discuss a looming trade spat with a variety of U.S. trade partners. The discussion included a frank exchange about the ill logic of a policy pathway that included tariffs and quotas, optimal tariff theory by industry and, ultimately, the need to begin putting together a ... READ MORE >
Wholesale gasoline prices point to 8% rise in retail costs in time for summer holidays
U.S. consumers are likely to feel a modest jolt in commuting costs, as wholesale gasoline futures now point to an 8 percent rise in retail gasoline prices in coming days, with risk of a much more pronounced increase to follow. The surge is due to non-market derived pricing action caused by a recent policy shift from Washington on waivers around imports of ... READ MORE >
Economic risk tied to closing the U.S.-Mexico border
A sustained hard closure of the U.S. border with Mexico would trigger a recession in both the United States and Mexico within six months. It’s important to note that the auto industry directly employs one million individuals and accounted for 0.7 percent of the real value added to the U.S. economy in 2017. Thus, the multiplier effects of a border shutdown ... READ MORE >
U.S. February retail sales point to weak Q1 household spending
Soft top-line and underlying core retail sales in February point to persistent weak household spending in the first quarter of the year. While retail sales make up roughly 23 percent of household spending, we are certain that if personal spending in February and March does not surge at least 0.5 percent in each month that overall household spending will ... READ MORE >
Retail sales: Fatigued consumer bounces back but will there be follow through?
January retail sales data indicated a modest rebound in spending after a weaker-than-expected close to 2018. The 0.2 percent month-over-month increase in retail sales and the 0.9 percent increase in the retail sales control group figure that feeds into estimates of gross domestic product both affirm that the United States did not fall into recession to kick ... READ MORE >
Fashion to get lift from spending, amid trade and labor challenges
Consumer confidence and spending created some momentum for the fashion sector in 2018. Continued strong consumer confidence, along with the threat of trade regulations and a tight labor market, will be dominant themes for the sector—and the broader retail space—heading into 2019. In 2018, apparel retailers saw sales rise 7.5 percent for the week of Black ... READ MORE >
Data to help food makers manage trends, boost transparency
The 2019 outlook for the food and beverage sector remains cautiously optimistic; however, macroeconomic trends and public policy headwinds make it increasingly important for middle market companies to pay close attention to consumer preferences, while leveraging technology to drive process improvements and optimization. Margin pressures remain front and ... READ MORE >