The Institute for Supply Management's purchasing managers' index for manufacturing activities dipped to 50.9 in September, its lowest level since May 2020, amid an economic slowdown in the United States as well as globally. Inflation and a tighter monetary policy by central banks have pushed the global ... READ MORE >
Economics
The middle market economy—often overlooked in the wake of large public companies and emerging Wall Street darlings—is the backbone of U.S. economic growth, accounting for the majority of new U.S. jobs and some 40 percent of the nation’s GDP.
Spending grows, even with higher-than-expected inflation
Despite a sharp drop in energy prices, August's personal consumption expenditures price index—the Federal Reserve's key gauge for inflation—rose by 0.3% after falling by 0.1% in July. The price increases ate into spending, bringing spending growth from a 0.4% increase in dollar terms to only a 0.1% ... READ MORE >
New jobless claims fall to lowest level since April amid tight labor market
New claims for unemployment benefits fell by a sharp 16,000 last week to 193,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis, the fewest since April and well below the market's forecast, according to government data released Thursday. The decline comes amid a debate over how many jobs will be sacrificed to tame ... READ MORE >
Pending home sales fall to their lowest level since April 2020
Pending home sales in the United States fell by 2% in August, the third straight monthly decline amid a steep rise in mortgage rates, according to data released Wednesday by the National Association of Realtors. On a year-ago basis, pending sales fell by a whopping 22.6%, continuing to signal more room ... READ MORE >
Consumer confidence and core investment grow despite recession fear
American consumers and private businesses showed improved confidence in the economy despite recession concerns, according to economic data released on Tuesday. The data reaffirmed our forecast of a solid economic rebound toward the end of the year, pushing our recession call to next year. The ... READ MORE >
RSM US Supply Chain Index back to normal for second straight month
The RSM US Supply Chain Index improved to 0.19 standard deviations above neutral in August as inventories and industrial capacity utilization continued to rebound. That marked the second month in a row of supply chain efficiency after nearly three years of being underwater. While it remains too early ... READ MORE >
Amid global economic turmoil, stress grips fixed-income markets
Regime change in the global financial markets and the international economy is in play. Investor and policy expectations around globalization, growth and liquidity are all rapidly changing as central banks lift interest rates to put inflation back in the box. It is highly likely that the American ... READ MORE >
Canada’s supply chain healthy as demand slows
The RSM Canada Supply Chain Index reached 2.31 in August, one of the highest readings since 2000, thanks to improvements across delivery time, prices, and inventory levels, signaling sufficient health of the supply chain. This sharp increase represents a dramatic shift from just a few months ago; in ... READ MORE >
Japan intervenes in the currency market
With the yen in freefall, Japan on Thursday took the unusual step of intervening in currency markets to prop up the yen's value. For the first time in 24 years, the government began selling dollars to buy yen. The move came soon after the Bank of Japan held its policy rate at sub-zero levels, bucking ... READ MORE >
Fed raises its policy rate by 75 basis points and sees more increases
In the face of growing pressure from policymakers and investors to pause, pivot or even cut its policy rate, the Federal Reserve on Wednesday demonstrated why its independence is the sine qua non of monetary policy. The Fed raised its policy rate by three quarters of a percentage point, to a range of ... READ MORE >