Labor market dynamics set off by the coronavirus crisis are moving faster than economists can capture with our linear models inside what is a profoundly nonlinear, disease-induced change in the economy. Humility and not hubris is the order of the day for what will be another turbulent week and for the foreseeable future as economic data capture the ... READ MORE >
Economics
The middle market economy—often overlooked in the wake of large public companies and emerging Wall Street darlings—is the backbone of U.S. economic growth, accounting for the majority of new U.S. jobs and some 40 percent of the nation’s GDP.
The swift and significant monetary and fiscal policy responses to the coronavirus
March has been a month for the ages – one that fiscal and monetary policymakers will never forget. Congress put forward roughly $2.2 trillion, or equal to 11.4% of gross domestic product, in fiscal aid to address current and coming economic difficulties around the country. That boost will most likely show up later in the year. Based on past stimulus and ... READ MORE >
RSM Manufacturing Outlook Index gives another sign of recession
It’s time to talk about the elephant in the room. The RSM Manufacturing Outlook Index took a nosedive in March, to levels ordinarily reserved for recessions. The index reversed the gains of the first two months of the year and dropped more than two standard deviations below levels associated with normal manufacturing conditions. This bolsters our call ... READ MORE >
CARES Act expands access to loans for small and midsize businesses
The Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security (CARES) Act signed into law on Friday provides various options for small and midsize businesses facing liquidity challenges from the COVID-19 crisis. Three options are available: Option one The Coronavirus Preparedness and Response Supplemental Appropriations Act enacted on March 6 expanded the U.S. ... READ MORE >
RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas unpacks unemployment amid pandemic
Joe Brusuelas, RSM US chief economist, discusses the effect of the coronavirus on the labor market and the economy: https://youtu.be/rgvCtk_kF9g ... READ MORE >
Pricing in the end of the current British business cycle
The coronavirus has caused economies across to globe to adopt self-distancing as the de-facto public health policy to mitigate the spread of the disease. Nothing highlights the dangers of the virus and its spread more than the announcement that British Prime Minister Boris Johnson had tested positive for the disease. But the policy of self-distancing ... READ MORE >
For states struggling with coronavirus, stimulus package is likely not enough
The increase in out-of-work Americans became a tsunami of household distress as municipalities and states took action to stop the spread of the coronavirus. All states – with the exception of Utah – reported significant numbers of workers filing for unemployment benefits as state and local authorities and businesses took the lead in slowing the virus by ... READ MORE >
New jobless claims surge, signaling hardship for working America
Initial claims for unemployment insurance soared in the past week, as the spread of the coronavirus multiplies and the first tranche of service-sector layoffs floods state unemployment offices. This week’s initial claims increased to 3.283 million from last week’s 282,000, suggesting a substantial drop in income and household spending in the coming weeks and ... READ MORE >
Coronavirus pandemic hinders global automotive supply chains
With the recent passage of “phase one” of a trade agreement between the United States and China and the ratification of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), 2020 was supposed to be a transitional year for the global auto industry. Analysts had expectations that sales in the sector had bottomed out and that growth in China would support the ... READ MORE >
March Federal Reserve data signals more challenges ahead for manufacturers
Survey data released this month from the Federal Reserve Bank’s New York and Philadelphia districts shows the greatest manufacturing index drop ever recorded in those regions for the month of March, with overall readings well below earlier estimates and in negative territory. The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond’s survey of manufacturing activity remained ... READ MORE >