The Real Economy Blog

Economics

The middle market economy—often overlooked in the wake of large public companies and emerging Wall Street darlings—is the backbone of U.S. economic growth, accounting for the majority of new U.S. jobs and some 40 percent of the nation’s GDP.

RSM Brexit Stress Index eases as general election draws closer

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Stress in the UK financial markets continued to ease as the general election draws closer. The RSM Brexit Stress Index, which measures financial and economic risk surrounding Britain’s impending departure from the European Union, closed the week at 0.29 standard deviations above normal levels of implied stress. It marked the lowest level of risk in what ... READ MORE >

November employment: a boomer of a jobs report

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Even after adjusting for striking GM workers returning to the workforce, labor market dynamics remain robust as the private sector generated 254,000 new jobs in November, fueled by a gain of 206,000 private service sector jobs. Total jobs gains in the month were 266,000; the unemployment rate was 3.5%, a 50-year low. This is the twenty-first month in a ... READ MORE >

Private equity looks for recession-proof deals

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These are flush times for American private equity funds. Through November, they have raised more capital than any other fiscal year. But a good portion of that cash has not been put to use – yet. One reason is that many takeover targets have simply become too expensive, a dynamic reflected in the drop in deal activity for 2019. According to RSM Bloomberg, ... READ MORE >

As global economy slows, populism looms as long-term threat

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The global economy has been buffeted recently by trade tensions between the United States and China and slowing growth. But a greater risk looms around the world in the form of rising populism that threatens to unravel the postwar economic order, said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM at a recent conference held by the Ontario Securities Commission in ... READ MORE >

RSM Brexit Stress Index continues to ease

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Stress in the British financial markets has been easing in the three weeks since the election announcement, continuing a holding pattern of sorts until there is more clarity on the political and economic fronts. The RSM Brexit Stress Index, which measures financial and economic risk surrounding Britain’s impending departure from the European Union, closed ... READ MORE >

Early signals show continued decline for the leading indicator

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Analysts are forecasting that Thursday’s release of the Conference Board’s leading economic indicator of U.S. growth will show a 0.2% decline for October, the third month in a row of negative growth. As the chart below illustrates, the leading indicator has been decelerating since last October on a year-over-year basis, and it is now flirting with zero ... READ MORE >

Looking to 2020: Consumer is king amid slowing growth

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The American economy will continue to slow toward a growth rate of 1.5% in 2020, below its long-term average of 1.8%, as sturdy consumer spending compensates for financial volatility and erratic trade policy. That consumption, though, increasingly depends on rising asset prices that help boost confidence, and solid job growth. As long as consumers, ... READ MORE >

U.S. industrial production falls a sharp 0.8% in October

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Those who are making the case that U.S. industrial production has bottomed may want to rethink that overly optimistic statement. While auto production will undoubtedly rebound in November, the problems at Boeing surrounding the 737 Max and the uncertainty tax imposed on firms caused by the trade conflict with China have knocked the air out of domestic ... READ MORE >