Though the looming government shutdown would likely only push a small portion of economic activity into 2024, it could have significant impact on middle market manufacturers. One reason for this is that October can be a critical time to manage supply chains, address any potential disruptions and get ... READ MORE >
Economics
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: Four months of improvements at risk
The RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index continues to improve, with September’s results the fourth month of a developing uptrend. Three of the five regional Federal Reserve surveys reported increased activity during the month, while the Philadelphia and Kansas City regions reported significant ... READ MORE >
Canada’s economy was unchanged in July
Canada’s gross domestic product in July remained unchanged, adding to the prospect that the economy can achieve a soft landing and avoid a recession. The data released by Statistics Canada on Friday offered a picture of an economy holding its own even as it cools. Services-producing industries grew by ... READ MORE >
American consumers remain resilient as shutdown looms
Despite a rise in overall inflation because of higher oil prices, core inflation and spending volume were softer in August, adding to the optimism projected by the Federal Reserve recently that the economy can achieve a soft landing. The personal consumption expenditures price index—the Fed's preferred ... READ MORE >
Jobless claims hold steady as pending home sales plunge
The labor market continued to show resilience even as higher interest rates took a further toll on pending home sales. Initial jobless claims inched up by only 2,000 last week to 204,000, remaining below the pre-pandemic average, while pending home sales plunged by 7.1% in August after July's number ... READ MORE >
Business equipment spending rebounds
Business orders for equipment rebounded in August after falling for two straight months, an encouraging sign for American businesses, which should look through the current economic headwinds to prepare for a soft-landing in the economy. Wednesday's data on the broader economy was in line with what our ... READ MORE >
Housing prices set a record as consumer confidence dips
Economic data released on Tuesday added more mixed signals on the housing market in the wake of the wide fluctuations in mortgage rates over the past two months. At the same time, consumer confidence fell to the lowest level in four months as expectations markedly deteriorated. To begin with, housing ... READ MORE >
The economics of another U.S. government shutdown
The impasse over funding the federal government involves a small group of 20 hardliners in the House of Representative majority who are making demands reminiscent of 2018, when the government shut down for approximately five weeks. The traditional 12 annual appropriations bills that account for ... READ MORE >
Don’t believe the hype: Student loan payments present modest drag on growth
The restarting of student loan repayments will not cause a large drag on overall spending or economic growth in the final quarter of the year. Despite the hype and scare tactics around a well-telegraphed restart date, we estimate that it will result in only a 0.3 percentage point drag on gross ... READ MORE >
Falling jobless claims, existing home sales offer mixed economic picture
Even as the labor market remains tight, signs of a slowdown continue to appear in different pockets of the economy. The mixed signals from Thursday's data on initial jobless claims and existing home sales added to an economic picture that resembles a soft landing when the economy bends but does not ... READ MORE >