The Real Economy Blog

Economics

The middle market economy—often overlooked in the wake of large public companies and emerging Wall Street darlings—is the backbone of U.S. economic growth, accounting for the majority of new U.S. jobs and some 40 percent of the nation’s GDP.

A bumpy path toward a net-zero future

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As world energy leaders prepare to kick off a major United Nations conference on climate change on Sunday, the global energy crunch has added a new wrinkle to their ambitions: Nations, to keep their economies on track, are turning back to high-emissions coal as natural gas falls into short supply. But as severe as the energy squeeze has become, it is ... READ MORE >

GDP preview: Look for 2.9% growth in third quarter

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Economic growth in the third quarter will capture the impact of the delta variant on the economy as disruptions to supply chains and rising inflation have dampened household consumption and fixed investment by businesses. We expect that U.S. gross domestic product in the third quarter will arrive at 2.9%, less than half of the better than 6% pace of ... READ MORE >

Inflation in Canada persists amid shortages

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Inflation is proving to be persistent in Canada, with the Consumer Price Index increasing at an annual pace of 4.4% in September amid shortages of workers and supplies. Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, the index rose by a more moderate 3.3% on a year-over-year basis, but it was still the fastest rate since 2003, according to data ... READ MORE >

Chart of the day: U.S. housing starts and permits slowed amid shortages

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Housing starts and permits stayed below expectations in September, signaling a supply slowdown because of shortages of materials and labor. The headline figure for housing starts fell by 1.6% on the month to 1.555 million units annualized because of a drop in multifamily units while single-family starts—the more important series—remained unchanged, ... READ MORE >

Housing starts in Canada fall for the fourth consecutive month

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Housing starts in Canada fell 4.42% to 251,151 in September, another sign of the continuing shortages of raw materials and labor that have gripped the economy. The drop, the fourth monthly decline in a row, was led by dramatic decreases in Ontario (9,380 units), Alberta (4,730 units) and most notably British Columbia (11,164 units), according to data ... READ MORE >

Hispanic ascendant: challenges, opportunities and the real economy

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Given the growth and economic power of the Hispanic community in the United States, we believe it will strengthen the backbone of the real economy, helping the country solve a range of issues in the post-pandemic world, such as labor shortages, dampened population growth, and structural economic changes. As National Hispanic Heritage Month comes to a ... READ MORE >

Chart of the day: Consumer sentiment eases

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The headline consumer sentiment index inched down to 71.4 in October from 72.8 in September because of an uptick in short-term inflation expectations and higher gas prices, according to data released by the University of Michigan on Friday. At the same time, consumer expectations for inflation in the next 12 months rose to 4.8% from 4.6%, which suggests ... READ MORE >