Three of the largest bond issuers—Italy, the UK and the U.S.—have experienced the largest increases in yields since the Iran war began. … READ MORE >
Economics
Stagflation lite sets in as inflation surges in April
The consumer piece index rose at an annual rate of 3.8% in April, driven by the war in Iran and the supply shock that it triggered. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Drawing down oil reserves
In the first two months of the conflict, almost 100 million barrels of inventory were burned through. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Inflation swaps are underpricing risk of rising CPI
We expect April’s top-line CPI to increase by 0.7% on the month and by 3.7% from one year ago. … READ MORE >
In April jobs report, a solid, steady and stable labor market
The economy added 115,000 jobs in April while the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.3%. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Supply shock comes home to India
Two months into the U.S.-Iran war, India is experiencing a classic external supply shock that is depressing growth and elevating inflation. India enters FY27 with exceptional structural economic advantages: 7.6% growth in its economy, reduced U.S. tariffs, a strong services export base of $418 billion, and healthy foreign exchange reserves … … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Are you experienced?
Households in the U.S. and Canada, whose economies have become net exporters of oil, have not been spared the rising cost of gasoline and diesel. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: U.S. April jobs report preview
Our forecast for the U.S. employment report for April expects an increase of 60,000 jobs and the unemployment rate to stay at 4.3%. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Listen to what the bond market is saying
Both 30-year and 10-year bond yields are trading at the top of recent ranges, suggesting uncertainty and a greater risk in holding long-term securities. … READ MORE >
RSM’s Brusuelas and Nguyen again named among top forecasters
Brusuelas and Nguyen were rated fifth by Bloomberg in the overall accuracy of their economics forecasts for the first quarter of 2026, continuing their run among the elite forecasters. … READ MORE >