With oil exceeding $100 a barrel over the weekend, it won’t be until the March CPI report is released in April that the impact of the conflict will become clear. … READ MORE >
Economics
Market Minute: Global financial conditions, one week into the Iran war
With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, the current shock is a problem of supply for the oil and natural gas that are critical to the global industrial base. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: The U.S. economy and markets after seven days of war
The economic imbalances among households across the American economy will become a searing focal point should this conflict endure. … READ MORE >
The economy lost 92,000 jobs in February amid strikes and residual weakness
The weak February employment data puts the first dent in the low-fire, low-hire framework that has defined the American labor market. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: China’s dependence on Middle Eastern oil
China’s stockpiling of crude and diversification of supply suggest the ability to weather an approximately four-month cut from oil moving through the Strait of Hormuz. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Qatar’s key role in the global energy supply chain
The ripple effect of the closing of Qatar’s LNG export hub, the world’s largest, shows just how important Qatar and its exports of LNG are to the global energy supply chain. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: How much pain can the U.S. economy absorb?
Today, with the price of gas at $3.10, we are still well below levels where one should begin talking about larger risks to economic expansion. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: U.S. February jobs report preview
We forecast a net increase in total employment of 70,000 positions, supported by sustained growth in health care and private education. … READ MORE >
Economic implications of war in Middle East
In today’s American economy, spikes in oil prices do not present significant downside risk to top-line economic growth or inflation that they did a half century ago. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: What, me worry? Investors’ risk appetite changes.
Investors are increasingly questioning whether the extraordinary investments in AI will pay off. … READ MORE >