Retailer expectations about the start of the holiday spending season appear to have shifted earlier. About half of the retailers surveyed by the National Retail Federation said they anticipated that consumers have already started their holiday spending in October, while 62% of retailers said they expected to have a majority of their merchandise in stock. ... READ MORE >
Economics
The middle market economy—often overlooked in the wake of large public companies and emerging Wall Street darlings—is the backbone of U.S. economic growth, accounting for the majority of new U.S. jobs and some 40 percent of the nation’s GDP.
Holiday sales to limp forward as pandemic weighs on economy
Holiday spending is likely to advance at a tepid 0.5% pace as households still reeling from the pandemic pull back on traditional and experiential holiday outlays. This forecast is optimistic compared to the 4.6% decline in 2008, the last holiday season that took place during a recession. And it is analogous to the 2009 spending season, when purchases ... READ MORE >
Agriculture sector gets a reprieve with rising foodstuff prices
Foodstuff commodity prices have recovered lost ground, returning to January levels after five straight months of declines from March to July, according to an analysis of Commodity Research Bureau data. The drop in prices during the height of the pandemic shutdown is attributed to the sudden drop in demand by schools and restaurants, which left farmers ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Retail sales surge, but for how long?
Consumers opened their wallets in September as retail sales showed unexpected strength, rising by 1.9% over August for the fifth straight monthly gain, the Commerce Department reported on Friday. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg had expected a gain of 0.8% after the 0.6% increase in August. But this strength faces headwinds with the critical holiday ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Rising optimism among small businesses
The small business optimism index rose 3.8 points to 104 in September, the highest reading since February, according to a report by the National Federation of Independent Business. The index includes data on plans for hiring and capital outlays, and expectations for the economy to improve. In a reflection of this increased optimism, the NFIB found that a ... READ MORE >
Jobless claims continue to rise to highest level since August
U.S. labor market dynamics are clearly in an unusual place. The four-week moving average of first-time claims for unemployment insurance stands at 866,250, well above the monthly hiring pace of 661,000 posted in September and the highest since August. It will most likely be well above the top-line hiring number in October. With claims increasing to ... READ MORE >
Coronavirus update: Regarding immunity and the severity of infection
Early in the pandemic, public health officials warned that there is no prior immunity from the novel coronavirus. The global data on infections has backed that up and is a grim reminder of how little is known about the disease. In only nine months, more than a million lives have been taken among the 37 million who have been infected. Now, signs of a ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Glory days for used car salesmen
A confluence of trends linked to the pandemic – including the fleeing of millennials to the suburbs and a rising preference for private transportation – has driven the price of used automobiles up by the quickest monthly gain since 1969, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. While inflation on a year-ago basis can’t crack 1.4%, the ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Pandemic economics, in 14 charts
The bond market, and not the equity market, provides perhaps the best assessment of the future of the economy. And these days, no matter how you parse the data, the bond market is telling a clear story: The corporate sector and the broader economy remain at risk. This stress is bleeding into state and local governments, which face a decreasing ability to ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims: If you’re not confused, you’re not paying attention
Pandemic economics has brought about an interesting conundrum: The pace of firings in the economy remains above the monthly hiring data as the unemployment rate falls. Over the past six weeks, first-time claims for unemployment insurance have averaged 867,000, which clearly points to a stalling out of improvement as claims remain at elevated ... READ MORE >