In an acknowledgment of the economy's surprise contraction in the third quarter, the Bank of Canada on Wednesday shifted its tone on monetary policy from hawkish to neutral as it held its policy rate steady at 5 per cent. A series of gradual rate cuts from the current 5% is in order starting in April ... READ MORE >
Economics
Job openings fall to lowest level since 2021, signaling Fed pivot
Job openings came in much lower than expected in October, continuing the declining trend that began early last year. Along with a downward revision to September's data, the labor market is now the most balanced it has been since 2021. With 8.7 million job openings in October, the ... READ MORE >
U.S. economic outlook: Expansion continues into 2024
Solid consumer spending driven by real personal income gains and sustained private investment will underscore a steady pace of growth at or near the 1.8% long-run rate in the United States in 2024. We expect that policy tailwinds from both the fiscal and monetary authorities will set the stage for ... READ MORE >
Manufacturing sector in U.S. contracts in November
The manufacturing sector contracted for the second month in a row in November as lower overall demand and persistent labor shortages took their toll, the Institute for Supply Management reported on Friday. The overall index stayed unchanged at 46.7%, implying a decline. Any figure below 48.7% indicates ... READ MORE >
Canada’s unemployment rises to 5.8%, adding to case for rate cuts
Canada added 25,000 jobs in November as its unemployment rate climbed to 5.8%, its highest level since January 2022, Statistics Canada reported on Friday. Together with the weak third-quarter gross domestic product report on Thursday, November’s jobs data adds more evidence to the argument for the Bank ... READ MORE >
Canada’s economy contracted more than expected, suggesting a pivot on rates
Canada’s economy contracted more than expected in the third quarter, suggesting that the Bank of Canada might soon pivot to cutting rates, as early as April, to avoid a deeper recession than needed. Canada’s gross domestic product declined by 0.3 per cent in the third quarter and by 1.1 per cent on an ... READ MORE >
Inflation slows again, pointing to another rate pause
Inflation in October fell to its slowest pace in more than a year, solidifying the case for the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady at its next meeting in two weeks. The personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation metric, was unchanged on the month, ... READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: Slowdown even as jobs recover
Manufacturing continued to pull back in November, with the RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index remaining at 1.3 standard deviations below the level that would be considered normal. Although we think that the manufacturing sector has bottomed, any signs of an improvement have abated. A turn toward ... READ MORE >
As Canada pledges to restrain spending, it confronts a housing crisis
With Canada’s debt and interest payments rising, the federal government pledged this week to exercise restraint in spending. The announcement, which came Tuesday in the government's Fall Economic Statement, comes amid rising pressure for Canada to avoid fueling inflation with more spending, especially ... READ MORE >
Durable goods and jobless claims offer a mixed picture of the economy
The impact of elevated interest rates continued to show up in the business equipment spending data, which came in lower than expected in the Commerce Department's data released on Wednesday. Overall orders for durable goods fell by 5.4% in October, led by a 49.6% decline in nondefense aircraft because ... READ MORE >