The Real Economy Blog

Economics

The middle market economy—often overlooked in the wake of large public companies and emerging Wall Street darlings—is the backbone of U.S. economic growth, accounting for the majority of new U.S. jobs and some 40 percent of the nation’s GDP.

Central banks brace for economic slowdown as manufacturing reflects contraction

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A slowing global economy and declining bond yields across the developed world—some negative—portend a deteriorating business climate ahead. To combat this broad slowdown, global central banks are shifting monetary policy toward more accommodative stances that include real negative rates, nominal negative rates, large-scale asset purchases and possibly ... READ MORE >

The RSM Brexit Stress Index: Global growth and the bond market

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The RSM Brexit Stress Index moved higher this week, as the currency, equity and bond markets reacted to the political posturing around a hard exit from Europe’s common market and the impact of what looks to be a slowdown in global growth. The composite index, which measures economic stress surrounding Britain’s impending departure from the European Union, ... READ MORE >

Retail sales boom in June, industrial production flat

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Today’s data comes close to wrapping up data collection for the second quarter of 2019, and imply that the consumer sector has robustly rebounded from a weak first three months of the year, while overall industrial production remains tepid at best. Based on the 0.4% increase on the month and a 1.8% increase on a year-ago basis in retail sales, we are ... READ MORE >

Jobs rebound likely to fade in second half of year

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The U.S. economy generated 224,000 jobs in June driven by solid increases in education and health, business services, good producing and construction jobs. After accounting for downward revisions to previous estimates the net result for June was a total change of 213,000 jobs. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate increased to 3.7 percent as the household ... READ MORE >

Tug-of-(Trade)-War: RSM Brexit Stress Index eases for week

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The RSM Brexit Stress Index eased this week, as global equity markets pushed higher on news of a rapprochement among the parties in the U.S.-China trade war and anticipation of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The composite index—which measures economic stress surrounding Britain’s impending departure from the European Union—fell to 0.16 at ... READ MORE >

June US employment preview–slower pace of growth expected for Q2

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We expect the labor market will reflect a slower pace of growth through the second quarter, resulting in a below-consensus estimate (165,000) net increase in total employment of 147,000 jobs and an increase in the unemployment rate to 3.7%. In our estimation, the primary narrative emerging from the June report will be sustained deceleration of hiring in the ... READ MORE >

The RSM Brexit Stress Index: Lower highs and lower lows

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The RSM Brexit Stress Index closed slightly higher this week, as political talk centers on whether Boris Johnson, the Conservative Party front runner favored to take over as U.K. Prime Minister, can make good on his promise of removing Britain from the European Union with or without a deal. The index edged up to 0.26 on Friday from 0.23 a week earlier, ... READ MORE >

SCOTUS rejects challenge to administration’s steel tariffs

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The U.S. Supreme Court on Monday refused to hear a case seeking to deny the administration's power to impose more than $4 billion in steel tariffs, turning away an appeal that challenged its use of national security as the legal justification for the United States' trade agenda. The appeal, led by a steel industry trade group, was spurred by the ... READ MORE >