The consumer price index increased by 0.9% in March and by 3.3% compared to a year ago as the energy shock began to be felt in the American economy. … READ MORE >
Economics
Market Minute: Ceasefire and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz
In economic terms, the two-week ceasefire in Iran will come down to the number of ships that sail through the Strait of Hormuz in either direction. … READ MORE >
PCE inflation data shows a deteriorating economy on edge of war
A mix of declining inflation-adjusted income growth, a reliance upon savings and credit to fund spending and a 3.7% increase on a three-month annualized pace in core inflation does not paint a flattering portrait of an economy in February, on the edge of war. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Allentown, hubris, urea and sulfur
One of the lessons of the effective shutdown in exports like sulfur and urea out of the Persian Gulf is the role that those commodities play in everyday economic life. … READ MORE >
RSM lowers GDP forecast for 2026 to 1.7%
We estimate that there is a 30% probability of a recession over the next 12 months, up from 20% before the war. … READ MORE >
What the ceasefire in Iran means for the UK economy
It reduces the risk of a further sharp rise in energy prices, should limit the rise in inflation, will reduce the impetus for rate hikes and reduces the risk of recession. However, another bout of stagflation for the UK still looks unavoidable. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Two inflation reports, one economy
We expect that the top-line CPI for March will increase by a minimum of 1% on the month, driven by higher fuel costs, and 3.5% from a year ago. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Price signals in the oil markets
Brent crude is now the primary price signal that investors are watching as the war in the Persian Gulf escalates. … READ MORE >
Reserve Bank of India set to hold rates steady
While the Indian economy entered the year with significant momentum, the shock resulting from the war in Iran has effectively closed the window for further monetary policy accommodation. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Don’t ignore short-term inflation expectations
Since the outbreak of the war in Iran, inflation expectations for the year ahead have spiked to 5%. … READ MORE >