The sharp increase, which comes as higher tariffs are about to take hold, heightens the risk that the Federal Reserve is losing control of what until recently were well-anchored expectations and, consequently, price stability. … READ MORE >
Economics
Market Minute: Strategic autonomy, India and the U.S. trade relationship
While there is ample room for India to lower its tariffs, it is doubtful that India will give much on its oil imports or any framework that restricts efforts to move up the value chain in the global economy. … READ MORE >
Cracks in spending and manufacturing begin to form
April retail sales showed a sharp turn in consumer spending at retail stores and restaurants, following months of stockpiling ahead of tariffs. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: The bond market is not buying it
Fixed-income investors are sniffing out the logic of economic populism amid a move toward trade protectionism, which strongly implies higher inflation and rising long-term yields. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Household stress evident in rising delinquencies
The U.S. Household Debt and Credit Report, published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, shows growing signs of stress, particularly when it comes to credit cards and student loans. … READ MORE >
In April CPI report, scant evidence of tariff-induced inflation
We think it probable that the pervasive uncertainty around trade policy caused businesses to simply remain in place until they had more information about the tariffs. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Canada’s trade diversification away from U.S. as tariff pain remains
Canada’s latest trade data provides an indicator of the diversification away from U.S. dollar-denominated assets as tariff tensions continue to simmer between the longtime trade partners. In March, Canada’s merchandise exports to countries other than the U.S. surged by 24.8 per cent on a month-over-month basis—the second-largest increase in recorded … … READ MORE >
With trade truce, U.S. and China avoid a decoupling, but devil is in the details
The bottom line is that American firms can now prepare for a significant increase in the cost of imports, which will then be passed along to consumers. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: CPI will start to reflect tariffs, especially in used autos
The April consumer price index will provide insight in the early days of the current trade conflict when it is released Wednesday as signs of rising prices for apparel, autos, shoes and toys will begin to appear. … READ MORE >
Canada’s unemployment rate rises as U.S. tariffs strain key industries
Canada’s latest jobs report showcased the impact of U.S. tariffs as key industries saw high job losses while the overall unemployment rate rose. … READ MORE >