The RSM Brexit Stress Index finished the week at 0.36, virtually unchanged from last week’s close. Although the index remains within a range of normality in terms of asset price movement and volatility, there were nevertheless signs of increased stress in the majority of markets. The index measures UK financial sentiment surrounding Brexit and the impact ... READ MORE >
Economics
The middle market economy—often overlooked in the wake of large public companies and emerging Wall Street darlings—is the backbone of U.S. economic growth, accounting for the majority of new U.S. jobs and some 40 percent of the nation’s GDP.
Key construction index shows improvement, but builder cost hurdles remain
The National Association of Homebuilders’ Housing Market Index rose 3 points to 66 in May—a seven month high—helped by lower mortgage rates and improved sales of new homes. The increase added momentum to this year’s upward trend following a low at the end of 2018. A reading above 50 indicates more builders see conditions as good than poor. While stable ... READ MORE >
What constitutes a trade war? You’re looking at it
Many who have watched the growing trade dispute between the United States and China, the world's largest trading partners, have been fast and loose with terminology since tensions began to heat up in early 2018. While we have remained cautious, now there is no mistake: A trade spat initiated by the United States last year with the imposition of tariffs on ... READ MORE >
A pivot point for agriculture : Can agritech save farming?
The U.S. agriculture sector has been hard hit in recent years due to changing global demand and the onset of the Trump administration’s trade conflicts. Growth of real net farm income in 2019 dollars has been negative in nine of the past 19 years. Since 2011 the major agriculture states in the Midwest have experienced negative growth, while California—the ... READ MORE >
Counting the costs of trade
Recent scholarly research has validated concerns about the comprehensive absorption of costs associated with the number of trade spats in which the United States is now engaged. That research implies that American firms and households are paying a $3-billion-per-month increase in costs caused by trade policy, in addition to absorbing roughly $1.4 billion in ... READ MORE >
Financial crisis monitor: agriculture sector at risk
A little over a year ago we sat down with a senior Trump administration official to discuss a looming trade spat with a variety of U.S. trade partners. The discussion included a frank exchange about the ill logic of a policy pathway that included tariffs and quotas, optimal tariff theory by industry and, ultimately, the need to begin putting together a ... READ MORE >
RSM Brexit Stress Index shows increase in financial market stress
The RSM Brexit Stress Index finished the week at 0.34, up from last week’s close at 0.02. Although remaining within a range of normality in terms of asset price movement and volatility, financial market stress is nevertheless inching higher again. Until three weeks ago, the index, which measures UK economic sentiment surrounding Britain's pending ... READ MORE >
RSM Brexit Stress Index finishes week slightly up, signals normality
The RSM Brexit Stress Index finished the week at 0.02, slightly higher than last week’s value of -0.01, signaling a period of normality in terms of asset price movement and volatility. The index, which measures UK economic sentiment surrounding Brexit, suggests that stress has declined in 14 of the past 21 weeks since Prime Minister Theresa May barely ... READ MORE >
Time to get real on GDP and gasoline prices–read The Real Economy
In this issue of The Real Economy, RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas reviews leading indicators of economic activity as the United States heads into the late innings of this current business cycle. He also examines the impact of rising gasoline prices, which are pinching consumers' wallets just in time for the holiday driving season. And our new ... READ MORE >
US employment report–April springs ahead
A dynamic U.S. labor market did not disappoint in April as the private sector created 236,000 new jobs and government added 27,000 for a net gain of 263,000 on the month. The monthly report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics saw the unemployment rate decline to 3.6 percent, the lowest level since December 1969. Upward revisions to the previous two months ... READ MORE >