Friday’s strong jobs report, which had a 4.3% unemployment rate and modest nominal wage growth, provided a fast-paced opening movement to that symphony that will be followed by a far more complex inflation report. … READ MORE >
Economics
Market Minute: Americans still have the travel bug
Despite surging air fares, airline demand remains on a solid trajectory that looks like the strong years of 2024 and 2025. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Expect hiring to edge higher amid soft wage growth
We are forecasting that the jobs report for May will show an increase of 95,000 new positions with risk of a quicker pace. … READ MORE >
Job openings rise to a two-year high
The sharp increase in the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey from the Bureau of Labor Statistics followed disappointing results in February and March. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Sticky service sector inflation
The increase in service sector prices pre-dated the recent supply shock and is part of a broader rise in inflation and interest rates., … READ MORE >
Manufacturing advanced at fastest pace in four years, ISM data shows
The manufacturing sector continued its recent run in May, growing significantly for the fifth consecutive month on the back of tariffs and the AI buildout, according data from the Institute for Supply Management. Demand was particularly strong in May, buoyed in part by the prospect of a resolution of the … … READ MORE >
Market Minute: The bond market starts to bite back
In the 13 weeks since the war in Iran began, the yields on 2-year and 5-year Treasury bonds have increased by 64 basis points, closing at 4.0% and 4.14% last Friday. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Four imbalances that pose a risk to the economy
Even as financial conditions remain a modest tailwind for the overall economy, there are imbalances that pose a risk to the outlook. … READ MORE >
Inflation heats up as stress on households grows
The personal consumption expenditures index arrived hot for the second straight month in April while inflation-adjusted spending cooled. … READ MORE >
Market minute: ECB to raise rates in June
Our assessment implies that, given the current global supply shock, the ECB’s monetary policy is too accommodative. … READ MORE >