Trade shock has turned into financial shock in the form of a rising term premium as investors unwind risk and diversify away from dollar-denominated assets. … READ MORE >
Economics
Housing starts plunge in March as builder sentiment sours
Housing starts fell by 11.4% in March to 1.3 million on an annualized basis, well below the equilibrium level between supply and demand. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Inventories increase again in February as tariffs loom
Businesses continued to brace for the imposition of tariffs, with total inventories increasing by 0.2% in February after rising by 0.6% in January. … READ MORE >
U.S. retail sales surge as consumers race to beat tariffs
Headline retail sales rose by 1.4% in March, matching lofty market expectations. The increase was largely fueled by strong demand for autos and construction materials. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Real income expectations plummet
March retail sales will see a pop of greater than 1% when the Census Bureau releases the data on Thursday as households pull forward consumption in advance of higher tariffs. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Housing units under construction easing
Cost curves associated with housing construction are rising, margins are thinning and it would logically follow that construction unemployment will increase later this year. … READ MORE >
Requiem for the dollar?
The United States’ attempt to rebalance the global economy to better serve its interests has resulted in the flight of capital out of the country, harming American businesses and consumers. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Rising inflation expectations could send yields higher today
The New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations, to be released on Monday, carries the risk of sending yields higher across the curve. … READ MORE >
Consumer sentiment plunges amid sweeping tariffs
The consumer sentiment index in April fell to its lowest level since 2022, plunging to 50.8 from 57.0 in March. At the same time, inflation expectations rose to their highest levels since the 1980s. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Dollar tumbles as investors exit U.S. assets
A loss of credibility and confidence in the policy to disrupt patterns of trade has spread from domestic financial investors to global fiscal and monetary authorities. … READ MORE >