The Real Economy Blog

Economics

The middle market economy—often overlooked in the wake of large public companies and emerging Wall Street darlings—is the backbone of U.S. economic growth, accounting for the majority of new U.S. jobs and some 40 percent of the nation’s GDP.

Closer look at monthly jobs data shows the glass only half full

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The decade-long recovery from the Great Recession reveals some cracks in the glass. The monthly change in non-farm payrolls is closely followed by financial markets and is often the catalyst for outsized market moves. We say that because the payroll series is volatile, with a 1960-2020 average change of 184,000 jobs per month (when the economy is not in ... READ MORE >

Monitoring financial risk during pandemics

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Global market participants have priced in the imminent reopening of the Chinese economy, while the World Health Organization has cautioned that it is too early to declare that the virus is at its peak. It is clear based on news flow over the weekend and into Monday's early-morning session that it will be one to two more weeks at the least before the ... READ MORE >

RSM Brexit Stress Index: Traders hedge their bets

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One week into Brexit, the foreign exchange and fixed-income markets are showing signs of doubt and perhaps the beginning of a hedge on a bet that the government can quickly renegotiate its trade agreements with the world and that the British economy will be left better off. The RSM Brexit Stress Index -- which measures financial and economic risk ... READ MORE >

As coronavirus spreads, so do risks to the global supply chain

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As the potential for the coronavirus to become a pandemic looms, the outbreak is starting to affect the supply chains of critical industries across the globe. Since the first confirmed case in Wuhan, the virus has spread to manufacturing hubs including Shanghai, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Guangdong and Chongqing, according to data released by Chinese ... READ MORE >

Jobs report preview: Expect slightly slower hiring in January

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Labor market dynamics this year will most likely reflect a general slowing in monthly hiring that can be expected late in the business cycle. For this reason, we expect the economy to generate 155,000 new jobs in the January 2020 employment report, somewhat slower than the 176,000 monthly average observed in 2019. In addition, the Bureau of Labor ... READ MORE >

Hospitality industry braces for the worst as coronavirus spreads

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As the human and economic toll of the coronavirus continues to mount, the hospitality industry is bracing for the worst. On Jan. 30, the World Health Organization cautioned against non-essential travel to China after declaring the outbreak a public health emergency. Major airlines quickly responded, as British Airways, United, Delta and American, among ... READ MORE >

Economics of a global health crisis

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Global economic markets' reaction to China’s coronavirus has been severe, resulting  in a significant safe-haven move into U.S. government securities by international investors. Whether the virus has a lasting impact on the broader global economy depends largely on the ability of the world’s major governments to effectively deploy resources to contain the ... READ MORE >

U.S. Q4’19 GDP: slow and steady

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The U.S. growth picture on Thursday arrived spot on with the 2.1% economic consensus driven by solid but slowing personal consumption and strong government spending. The large drop in imports, along with the noticeable easing of spending in the fourth quarter, does denote some caution on the growth picture in light of growing domestic and global ... READ MORE >