There were increases in the number of newly filed claims for unemployment benefits in 25 states during the week ending June 27. Thirteen of those states reported increases that were significantly above normal levels. We should also note that 10 states reported significant decreases in newly filed claims, which is a drop from the 12 states last week. ... READ MORE >
Economics
The middle market economy—often overlooked in the wake of large public companies and emerging Wall Street darlings—is the backbone of U.S. economic growth, accounting for the majority of new U.S. jobs and some 40 percent of the nation’s GDP.
June U.S. employment report: Encouragement, concern and outright skepticism
Total employment increased by an encouraging 4.8 million workers in June as the U.S. economy continues what will be a multiyear period of recovery in the American labor market. The major takeaway from the array of labor market data published Thursday morning is that despite the decline of 7.5 million people on temporary layoff in May and June, through ... READ MORE >
The Paycheck Protection Program still has legs after Congress approves extension
The $659 billion Paycheck Protection Program, which was scheduled to stop accepting new applications on Tuesday even though it had more than $134 billion left to distribute as of June 27, could now be extended through Aug. 8, after the Senate and the House approved the measure. The program has been a central pillar of the $2.39 trillion CARES Act, ... READ MORE >
The worst may be over for the manufacturing sector, but industry remains cautious
The RSM Manufacturing Outlook Index is reporting a remarkable rebound of sentiment in the U.S. manufacturing industry. But while the worst might be behind us, the index remains slightly negative at nearly 0.3 standard deviations below normal conditions, which suggests that a national recovery has yet to materialize. Moreover, damage to the manufacturing ... READ MORE >
U.S. jobs report: Will June data already be out of date by the time it’s published?
We expect an increase of 3.1 million in total employment, led by workers who have been called back to their jobs, and a decrease to 12.2% in the unemployment rate when the jobs data for June is released on Thursday. But those figures should be looked at with a skeptical eye. Pandemic economics is now organized around near real-time economic data that ... READ MORE >
Houston we have a problem: A rising curve of coronavirus infections
Notions of an easing pandemic ought to be gently dismissed as the pace of newly reported coronavirus cases appears ready to breach the April peak amid the accelerating spread of the virus in the South, Southwest and the vast interior of the country. The sustained issues in California and the emerging hot spots of Arizona, Florida and Texas imply a ... READ MORE >
May U.S. personal income and spending: Impaired households in view
Income dynamics in May suggest that policymakers need to act sooner rather than later to support struggling American workers to avoid a quickly approaching fiscal cliff on July 31. On a year-ago basis, personal income excluding government transfers declined 6% following a revised 7.2% drop in April, the Commerce Department reported on Friday. While ... READ MORE >
Nine states report significant increases in jobless claims
Nine states reported significant increases in first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the week ending June 20 -- a sobering reminder of the ongoing economic toll of the coronavirus. Nationally, there were an additional 1.5 million people who woke up without a job during the week of June 20, which is magnitudes above normal ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims: Why the wait for further aid?
In the war film “Tora! Tora! Tora!” U.S. Navy Captain John Earle refused to act in defense of Pearl Harbor until he received confirmation of an attack even as American naval assets exploded all around him. As such, some important policymakers appear to be waiting on confirmation that the U.S. economy needs further emergency aid even as jobless claims ... READ MORE >
RSM monthly GDP index: Negative real growth continues into the second quarter
The RSM monthly index of real GDP growth that turned negative in March has now dropped below levels recorded during the financial crisis and Great Recession of 2007-9. We anticipate that the decline in second-quarter U.S. gross domestic product will be the largest single decline in the modern economic era. Based solely on domestic consumption and ... READ MORE >