Prime Minister Boris Johnson and the European Union reached a Brexit deal in last-minute talks on Thursday, giving reassurance to the foreign exchange market and a boost to the equity market. But its passage is far from assured, with several immediate hurdles still to be overcome, including what is expected to be a close vote in Parliament on ... READ MORE >
Economics
The middle market economy—often overlooked in the wake of large public companies and emerging Wall Street darlings—is the backbone of U.S. economic growth, accounting for the majority of new U.S. jobs and some 40 percent of the nation’s GDP.
RSM Brexit Stress Index eases amid progress over Northern Ireland
The RSM Brexit Stress Index moved substantially lower after talks between British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Ireland’s Prime Minister Leo Varadkar were reported to offer options for the transition of Northern Ireland from the common market into Britain’s single market. Though details were still to be worked out, the positive developments allowed ... READ MORE >
Start watching initial jobless claims as economy slows
Signals implying the slow demise of the decade-long economic recovery include the rising number of claims for unemployment insurance benefits. While we do not believe there is imminent risk of an explosion in demand for first-time benefits, once the pace of firings rises above 250,000 it likely marks an important turning point late in the business ... READ MORE >
RSM Brexit Stress Index higher as global uncertainty hits home
The RSM Brexit Stress Index jumped in a week that included the European Union’s stark criticism of Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s withdrawal proposal and the equity markets' recognition of the adverse effects of disruptions to trade. The composite index, which measures financial-market stress surrounding Britain’s impending departure from the European ... READ MORE >
September jobs report: Mixed hiring data with stagnant wages
The U.S. economy is slowing and job creation continues to ease along with overall economic activity. Given the recent readings of the manufacturing sector, which is in recession, and a service sector that has slowed noticeably, forward-looking investors, firm managers and policymakers should anticipate a march down toward 100,000 jobs per month by the end of ... READ MORE >
Hiring expected to slow in September jobs report
The labor market is expected to continue to lose steam in September, with the total change in employment likely increasing by 115,000 jobs on the month, and the unemployment rate likely rising to 3.8%. Given the slowdown in domestic manufacturing activity and goods production, we note there is downside risk to our top line forecast when the report is ... READ MORE >
Brexit stress gets reprieve due to Supreme Court ruling
The RSM Brexit Stress Index eased slightly during the week, as Britain’s Supreme Court ordered the resumption of Parliament and restored some sort of order to the Brexit chaos. The composite index, which measures financial-market stress surrounding Britain’s impending departure from the European Union, closed the week at 1.20 standard deviations above ... READ MORE >
Economic growth is running out of steam, RSM data shows
The U.S. economy likely grew at a 2.0% yearly rate in July and August, a drop from the 2.3% yearly rate of U.S. real GDP growth in the first quarter, according to the RSM US Real GDP Index (see chart below). (The index is based on a subset of indicators used by the National Bureau of Economic Research.) So far the domestic economy has absorbed two ... READ MORE >
RSM manufacturing outlook signals additional decline
The RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index continues to anticipate a decline in manufacturing, falling in September to -0.84 standard deviations below normal conditions for the manufacturing sector from -0.55 standard deviations in August (see Figure 1). It's the latest piece of data pointing to a slowdown in the economy, one that has been accelerating ... READ MORE >
Brexit stress rises amid Bank of England’s caution
The RSM Brexit Stress Index rose slightly during a week that included conciliatory tones regarding proposals for a Northern Ireland economic zone, the High Court’s hearings over the suspension of Parliament and the Bank of England's warning that continuing anxiety over Brexit and global trade disputes are taking their toll on the economy. The composite ... READ MORE >