Executive commentary ran the gamut in 2023 first-quarter earnings calls for defense technology and government contracting companies, underscoring uncertainty, pressure and excitement.
The possibility of a national debt default increased doubt about near-term and long-term spending trends. Mounting geopolitical tension intensified companies’ urgency to serve the U.S. government and allies quickly and effectively. In response, government contractors leaned into cutting-edge, innovative solutions to modernize the nation’s capabilities.
These interconnected themes emerged from the earnings calls, transcripts of which were provided by Bloomberg.
Debt ceiling debacle
Though government services businesses are generally protected from broader macroeconomic downturns, the U.S. debt ceiling debate prompted executives to consider the impact of the fallout on their work, their clients and future federal spending levels.
Horacio Rozanski, chief executive officer of Booz Allen Hamilton Inc., said debt ceiling discussions created a heightened level of uncertainty for his company’s clients, as it further pushed the timeline of the fiscal year 2024 U.S. federal spending bill.
Others commented on being insulated from spending cuts and caps due to the mission-critical nature of their offerings for national security.
The recent agreement, which had not yet been approved by Congress at the time of the earnings calls (but would be shortly thereafter), proposed caps on discretionary federal spending in fiscal years 2024 and 2025.
While the U.S. avoided default, government contractors continue to keep a close eye on federal budget negotiations, looking for both cuts and opportunities for growth through spending shifts and reallocation.
Geopolitical pressure cooker
Geopolitical tensions are increasing in complexity across the globe.
Booz Allen Hamilton’s Rozanski highlighted the convergence of geopolitical escalation with the rapidly accelerating pace of technological change. Rozanski acknowledged that this convergence creates increasingly complex mission challenges. Executive discussions highlighted this change within two primary geographies: China and Europe.
The Department of Defense’s plan to enhance and modernize its presence in the Indo-Pacific region is no secret. John S. Mengucci, chief executive officer of CACI International Inc., said his company has focused on maintaining leadership of the foundation of electronic warfare in the Pacific region as one of the largest providers of sensing systems. Mengucci said CACI focuses its strategy on software-defined technology that can evolve quickly and with agility.
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Outpacing China’s development of artificial intelligence is also a crucial reality facing the U.S. national security environment, according to Rozanski. Palantir Technologies followed suit, as CEO Alexander Karp announced the launch of its latest AI platform, known as AIP. Karp joined the chorus of those who believe that AI will provide transformational opportunities for the U.S., its allies and commercial businesses.
As armed conflict continues in Europe, mission success for foreign allies is also critical. U.S. allies have accelerated their readiness strategies as war wages closer to home and new battlegrounds in space become more contested. As national security concerns increase, so does the necessity to provide cutting-edge, effective and efficient solutions to ensure mission success.
A modern response
How has the ecosystem responded to uncertainty and global insecurity? By pioneering modern technological advancements. Yes, this includes championing artificial intelligence, but it also means so much more. Every corner of the ecosystem is ripe for modernization—both defense and civilian and at home and abroad.
To Roger Krone, chief executive officer of Leidos, this means investing in improving technologies strategic to the industry and its customers, including cybersecurity, zero-trust architecture, generative AI, supply-chain modernization and digital transformation.
Contract IT spending at federal agencies came in at record levels for 2023, according to Bloomberg. Many government services businesses focus on capturing a specific niche within the broader modernization wave that is sweeping across federal agencies. Such specialization is a way for industry players to obtain competitive advantage on new contract awards—provided each business can outpace the technological advancement of its peers. Others flex their system integrator muscle and help the government navigate complex systems with a growing number of stakeholders.
Whether such advancements occur in the back office or the battlefield, the rapid pace at which innovation is occurring ensures that there will be ample modernization opportunities.
The takeaway
Pressure from near-peer adversaries and an increased focus on supporting allied nations ensure that the U.S. modernization wave will persist. While funding levels are always under the microscope, contractors focused on the mission-critical needs of the government will find pockets of opportunity to advance the nation’s technical abilities and help U.S. allies do the same.
