The main risk underlying the Canadian economy has shifted from high inflation to high unemployment and slowing growth. The government’s recent restrictions on immigration reflect its attempt to respond to these shifting dynamics. But while these restrictions could temporarily curb unemployment and ... READ MORE >
Canada unemployment
Bank of Canada reduces rate to 4.5 per cent amid disinflation
There was little surprise in the Bank of Canada’s announcement on Wednesday when the central bank reduced its policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.5 per cent. The tone of the central bank's statement was notably dovish and marked a departure from a hawkish or cautionary tone that persisted over the past ... READ MORE >
Canada’s jobs report offers mixed messages on rates
February’s jobs report for Canada did little to sway the Bank of Canada’s likelihood to begin cutting rates in June. The data released on Friday continues to send mixed messages to those who make monetary policy, a recurring theme for the past six months as the economy hangs on but does not ... READ MORE >
Canada’s job market exceeded expectations in January, adding 37,000 jobs
The Canadian economy refuses to go down without a fight. Nearly two years into a cycle of steep interest rate increases and after half a year with the policy rate at 5%, the economy added 37,000 jobs in January, far exceeding expectations. The unemployment rate fell for the first time in over a ... READ MORE >
Canada failed to add jobs in December
The Canadian economy is slipping into no-growth territory. In December, Canada lost 23,500 full-time jobs, replaced by a gain of 23,600 part-time positions. Still, the mixed signals that dominated the latter half of last year have not given way to more unanimous signs of a stalling economy. The ... READ MORE >
Canada’s unemployment rises to 5.8%, adding to case for rate cuts
Canada added 25,000 jobs in November as its unemployment rate climbed to 5.8%, its highest level since January 2022, Statistics Canada reported on Friday. Together with the weak third-quarter gross domestic product report on Thursday, November’s jobs data adds more evidence to the argument for the Bank ... READ MORE >
Canada’s unemployment rate rises to 5.7% as hiring slows
More than a year and a half since the Bank of Canada began raising interest rates to cool the economy and tame inflation, the job market is feeling the effects. The Canadian economy added 18,000 jobs in October, down from a gain of 63,800 in September, as the unemployment rate rose by 0.2% to 5.7%, ... READ MORE >
Canada’s job market remains resilient, adding 64,000 jobs
The Canadian economy remained resilient in September, adding 64,000 jobs as the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.5%, according to data released Friday by Statistics Canada. There were two reasons that the unemployment rate stayed the same despite the job gains: population growth and a slowdown in ... READ MORE >
Canadian economic outlook: Defying expectations
The Canadian economy has shown remarkable resilience this year, defying expectations of a downturn amid elevated inflation and rising interest rates. In our updated economic forecast, we have downgraded the probability of a recession in Canada over the next 12 months to 60%, from 75%. A 40% ... READ MORE >
Canada’s job market slows as unemployment rate hits 5.5%
Even though the number of jobs overall in Canada was little changed as the economy lost 6,000 positions in July, the labour market is showing signs of losing momentum. Canada’s unemployment rate rose to 5.5%, the third consecutive increase for the first time since March 2020, the onset of the ... READ MORE >