Prices continue to rise as demand outstrips supply across a robust economic reopening in the United States. Supply chain constraints and bottlenecks are still disrupting the flow of inputs used at earlier stages of production and intermediate goods. These disruptions underscore the imbalance between supply and demand that, in addition to comparisons ... READ MORE >
Consumer Price Index
CHART OF THE DAY: What caused the increase in consumer prices in April?
The debate of the moment in financial markets and regarding the direction of monetary policy centers around inflation: Is it a risk to the economy? The data and our forecast imply that while prices are rising in a cluster of industrial ecosystems that make up roughly 20% of the economy, we do not expect a sustained increase in overall prices. We agree ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: A do-over year for the Consumer Price Index
The inflation numbers for April released on Wednesday show the Consumer Price Index rising by 4.2% compared to April 2020, higher than the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 3.6%. The core CPI, which excludes the volatile food and energy components, rose 3.0%, up from the 1.6% year-over-year rate of increase in March. This marks the first time since ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: U.S. food prices likely past pandemic peak
Early in the pandemic, one concern for U.S. households was the rising price of food amid widespread job losses, a reduction in hours worked and declining incomes. Now, one year later, that concern has eased as we gain some perspective on the trajectory of overall prices in general and food prices in particular. While many global supply chains, including ... READ MORE >
Consumer Price Index: Inflation begins its temporary march upward
Increases in energy and transportation costs that were magnified by comparisons to last year’s economic downturn helped push the Consumer Price Index higher at an annual rate of 2.6% in March, according to government data released on Tuesday. The increase in the CPI, which was 0.6% on a monthly basis, was widely expected because of the base effects of a ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Rising food costs catch up with grocers
During the pandemic, despite all of the challenges it presented, grocers gained some relief from the margin pressures that had been steadily building. Not only did demand from consumers increase as they ate at home more, but grocers were also able to pass along higher costs created by production and supply chain uptions. The result was higher operating ... READ MORE >
U.S. February Consumer Price Index: Inflation to rise from a low base
Much of the recent discussion around risks to the domestic economic outlook revolves around inflation or the ghost of something that has not materially haunted the American economy during the past four decades. While year-ago base effects will cause top-line estimates of pricing to rise in the coming months, we expect a midyear peak in the CPI of 3.1% ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Consumer Price Index shows little risk of inflation
The long shadow of the pandemic-induced shock continues to hang on the economy. The tone and tenor of the data continue to imply that the central bank and the fiscal authority have enormous space to sustain accommodative monetary policy and address the intensification of the pandemic in the near term, not to mention addressing the modernization of the ... READ MORE >
Consumer Price Index: Modest increase in prices, inflation expectations well anchored
Strong demand for transportation and energy, which increased by 1.3% and 0.9% in August, were the primary catalysts for the 0.4% increase in the Consumer Price Index. The all-important core CPI excluding food and energy rose by a similar amount. On a year-ago basis, prices climbed a muted 1.3% and are up 1.7% in the core metric, according to data ... READ MORE >
June Consumer Price Index: Inflation not a risk to near-term economic outlook
Rising energy and gasoline prices accounted for roughly half of the 0.6% increase month over month inside the June Consumer Price Index report and should prove transient due to easing demand on the back of an intensifying pandemic. That increase, for the most part, is the recovery in oil and gasoline prices following the pandemic-induced collapse in ... READ MORE >