While U.S. core and headline inflation came in below expectations, according to the latest Consumer Price Index release, it will be well into next year before consumers see this inflation slowdown in their grocery bills and restaurant tickets. Retailers and distributors are continuing to feel the pinch of rising costs throughout the supply chain. The CPI ... READ MORE >
Consumer Price Index
Consumer Price Index: Inflation eased in August, but it’s too soon to declare victory
Score a victory for team transitory in the inflation wars. The Consumer Price Index eased in August, reaffirming our view that inflation most likely formed a peak in the summer following the historic supply shock that defined pandemic economics starting last year. Top-line inflation eased to 5.3% on a year-ago basis, while increasing by a much more ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Apparel goods pricing takes a mid-summer slide
The Consumer Price Index—which has indicated elevated pricing on apparel goods earlier this summer—appears to be declining on a year-over-year basis, according to Department of Labor data released Aug. 11. While topline CPI remained static at 5.4%, year-over-year CPI on apparel goods continued a downward trajectory in July to 4.2%, compared with 4.9% in ... READ MORE >
July Consumer Price Index: Inflation moderates and likely posts cyclical peak at 5.4%
The five-month surge in inflation has most likely resulted in a cyclical peak, reaching 5.4% in July on the back of a 0.5% increase on the month. The core Consumer Price Index excluding the more volatile food and energy components increased by 0.3% on the month and by 4.3% on a year-ago basis, according to government data released Wednesday. Like ... READ MORE >
Consumer Price Index surges 5.4% in June as the economy reopens
The recent surge in domestic prices continued as consumer prices increased by 0.9% on a monthly basis and by 5.4% on a year-ago basis, according to Labor Department data released on Tuesday. While the increase in prices requires close monitoring by policymakers, the gains continue to be driven by a cluster of items -- energy, transportation (used car ... READ MORE >
May CPI: Prices surge on strong base effects and economic reopening
Prices continue to rise as demand outstrips supply across a robust economic reopening in the United States. Supply chain constraints and bottlenecks are still disrupting the flow of inputs used at earlier stages of production and intermediate goods. These disruptions underscore the imbalance between supply and demand that, in addition to comparisons ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: What caused the increase in consumer prices in April?
The debate of the moment in financial markets and regarding the direction of monetary policy centers around inflation: Is it a risk to the economy? The data and our forecast imply that while prices are rising in a cluster of industrial ecosystems that make up roughly 20% of the economy, we do not expect a sustained increase in overall prices. We agree ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: A do-over year for the Consumer Price Index
The inflation numbers for April released on Wednesday show the Consumer Price Index rising by 4.2% compared to April 2020, higher than the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 3.6%. The core CPI, which excludes the volatile food and energy components, rose 3.0%, up from the 1.6% year-over-year rate of increase in March. This marks the first time since ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: U.S. food prices likely past pandemic peak
Early in the pandemic, one concern for U.S. households was the rising price of food amid widespread job losses, a reduction in hours worked and declining incomes. Now, one year later, that concern has eased as we gain some perspective on the trajectory of overall prices in general and food prices in particular. While many global supply chains, including ... READ MORE >
Consumer Price Index: Inflation begins its temporary march upward
Increases in energy and transportation costs that were magnified by comparisons to last year’s economic downturn helped push the Consumer Price Index higher at an annual rate of 2.6% in March, according to government data released on Tuesday. The increase in the CPI, which was 0.6% on a monthly basis, was widely expected because of the base effects of a ... READ MORE >