The RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index rose for the second month in a row in September as economic conditions continued to improve. The index, which is based on surveys of manufacturing activity and sentiment by regional Federal Reserve banks, came in at 0.7 standard deviations above expectations, up from 0.4 standard deviations recorded in August. The ... READ MORE >
Covid-19
Managed care organizations weather the coronavirus storm
It’s no mystery that major parts of the health care sector took a significant hit to the bottom line this year as hospitals and other providers postponed elective procedures to make way for the influx of coronavirus patients. But one area of the health care sector -- managed care organizations -- has weathered the storm quite well. Generally, many managed ... READ MORE >
Tracking the spread of coronavirus: Prelude to the cooler months
There has been a 20% increase in the number of states reporting a rise in coronavirus cases since a week ago – an unfortunate but not unexpected trend. We are entering the colder months – when infections are expected to rise as people move inside – and we have yet to lower the rate of infection to the insignificant levels that might allow for the return ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: New home sales continue to surge
Sales of new homes have continued to reach new heights, increasing by 4.8% to a seasonally adjusted rate of a little more than 1 million for August – the first time new home sales had eclipsed that mark since 2006. Compared to the same period a year earlier, sales surged 43.2%, according to data released from the U.S. Census Bureau on ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims: No meaningful improvement in the pace of firings
The pace of first-time jobless claims over the past few weeks denotes some slowing in the easing of firings across the economy. The stalling out suggests that the easy gains of the recovery’s early stages are likely in the rear-view mirror and the hard work of digging out of the economic abyss lies ahead. One gets the sense that the reality of an ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Manufacturers signaled acceleration in September
Manufacturers in September reported the fastest improvement in operating conditions since January 2019, according to the U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers’ index released by IHS Markit on Wednesday. The index posted a reading of 53.5 in September, up from 53.1 in August. This month’s reading was ahead of economists’ forecasts, which called for the ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Resurgence of pandemic in the U.K.
The sharp sell-off across financial markets on Monday is linked to fears about a global resurgence of the pandemic. Nowhere is that more evident than in the U.K., where R – the reproduction rate of COVID-19 – is approaching 1.7. That is akin to a nuclear event in terms of public health. An R at that reading could conceivably result in another round of ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Consumer sentiment continues its climb back
The index of U.S. consumer sentiment index continued to climb back from the depths of the economic shutdown in April, the University of Michigan reported Friday. The index reached 78.9 in September, which was up from 74.1 in August and 71.8 in April. It was the second month in a row that the index had exceeded the consensus estimate, which was 75. The ... READ MORE >
Tracking the spread of COVID-19: A resurgent virus, and a grim milestone
Following a late-summer lull in the coronavirus pandemic, the rate of infections has resumed its increase in the United States and is poised to intensify in the coming weeks, RSM’s modeling shows. This comes as the number of coronavirus deaths will soon pass a grim milestone: 200,000 in the United States since the first death was recorded in February. ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Housing starts decline 5.1%
Housing starts declined 5.1% month over month in August, while forward-looking building permits held steady with a slight decline of .9%, the Commerce Department reported on Thursday. This brings the seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts to 1.4 million and permits to nearly 1.5 million. Fueled by low interest rates and the recent migration to ... READ MORE >