California is now in Stage 2 of its reopening program from the coronavirus lockdown. The crowds at Los Angeles beaches and the rise in newly reported cases in California should give the governors of New York and New Jersey something to consider as pressure mounts to reopen Jones Beach in New York and the Jersey shore. This will provide crucial ... READ MORE >
Covid-19
Bill would loosen restrictions in Paycheck Protection Program, making loan forgiveness easier
In a bipartisan vote, the House of Representatives passed the Paycheck Protection Program Flexibility Act on May 28, loosening some restrictions on borrowers and making it easier to qualify for loan forgiveness. Under the bill, businesses would be given more time to use the loans and greater flexibility to make needed expenditures and still qualify for ... READ MORE >
Main Street Lending Program details released; program expected to start soon
The Federal Reserve took an important step toward the launch of the long-awaited Main Street Lending Program (MSLP) on Wednesday with the release of details about how the program will work. Based on these new details, which were released by the Boston Federal Reserve, and recent comments from Eric Rosengren, its president, we believe the launch of the ... READ MORE >
First-quarter GDP is revised downward to a 5% contraction
A 10.5% decline in gross private investment was the primary driver of the downward revision to first-quarter gross domestic product to a 5% contraction, from a drop of 4.8%, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. Despite modest upward revisions to household consumption and robust residential investment, we are keeping our forecast of a 38.5% ... READ MORE >
Jobless claims: 40.7 million file first-time claims in 10 weeks
First-time jobless claims for the week ending May 23 increased by 2.123 million, bringing the total number of Americans who have filed for unemployment benefits to 40.76 million during the past 10 weeks. This data, released Thursday by the Department of Labor, strongly implies that the unemployment rate will most likely peak near 25% this year, with ... READ MORE >
The post-coronavirus economy: What to expect, and what is needed
We think that the U.S. economy has ended its pandemic-induced free fall. Tentative signs of the recession’s nadir are evident in near real-time data across the economy. It is now time to begin considering the shape of the post-pandemic economy: What it will look like, whose interests are given preference and how fiscal and monetary policy will drive ... READ MORE >
Economic free fall has ended, nontraditional data show
Over the past few weeks, an array of near real-time economic data implies that the economic free fall of the coronavirus has come to an end. While there will be some troubling data ahead – including employment, wages and bankruptcies -- we do expect that the data for May and June will show that the economy is contracting at a slower pace than ... READ MORE >
As private equity firms hold onto investments, investors get restless
The coronavirus pandemic hasn’t slowed interest by private equity firms putting their cash to work in distressed firms. Although deal activity was down from March to April, general partners in private equity firms are still searching for value wherever they can find it. And they have the means to do it. After years of solid fundraising – which ... READ MORE >
Modeling the spread of the coronavirus: A difference in approach among states, and outcome
All states may have begun their reopening process, but there is a notable difference between the six states that have already experienced the worst of the coronavirus pandemic and those states where the pandemic might just be beginning. It is clear that there are problems in the South and Midwest with rising infections and deaths -- especially in ... READ MORE >
Five states surpass 2 million initial jobless claims since the onset of the coronavirus
There are now five states -- California, New York, Florida, Texas and Georgia – that have processed more than 2 million initial claims for unemployment benefits since the outbreak of the coronavirus in March. Six states have registered 1 million or more newly unemployed people and 13 have added at least a half-million to their unemployed rolls. In all, a ... READ MORE >