President-elect Joe Biden put forward an ambitious $1.9 trillion fiscal aid plan to address the public health crisis, the damage caused to the economy by the pandemic and the rollout of a national vaccination program. If enacted as proposed, which is highly unlikely, the plan would imply $2.9 trillion in aid pumped into the economy in the near term, ... READ MORE >
Covid-19
5 things to know this week in life sciences: Week of Jan. 11
In this week’s roundup, we take a look at life sciences fundraising totals from 2020, which was a record year for the industry in the capital markets. Silicon Valley Bank provides a detailed look at the numbers and provides insights into what to expect this year. Other news this week included Bluebird Bio’s announcement about splitting into two companies, ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: OPEC’s response to a drop in demand
The price of gas continued to decline in December, falling 15.5% lower than a year earlier. According to recent data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, gas prices for consumers peaked in late 2018 as the global manufacturing recession took hold and as Americans began to feel the effects of a slowing economy. As shown in the figure below, Americans' ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims: Long shadow of the pandemic hangs over labor market
Initial jobless claims surged by 965,000 for the week ending Jan. 9, which almost surely captures the 498,000 individuals in the leisure and hospitality sector who lost their jobs in December and the remarkable churn in the labor market amid lockdowns by state and local governments. The increase, reported by the Labor Department on Thursday, was most ... READ MORE >
Updating U.S. GDP forecast: Fiscal firepower to bolster growth
A confluence of recent events has set the stage for a significant increase in fiscal outlays this year that will boost growth in the American economy to 5.4% for the year, with risk to the upside. The upward revision comes after the Democrats captured control of the Senate by winning two runoff elections in Georgia, which has increased the freedom of ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Inflation poses little risk to the U.S. economic outlook
The inflation rate ticked up to 1.4% in December and the yield on 10-year Treasuries remained above 1% for the sixth straight day on Wednesday. These levels should be considered small victories in the normalization of the economy after a rough nine months of the pandemic. At this point, rent for shelter continues to deflate and a variety of core metrics ... READ MORE >
This year may be the busiest ever for health care and life sciences deal volume
The annual JP Morgan Healthcare Conference kicks off virtually this week. In years past, the event has heralded announcements of large partnerships, joint ventures and mergers and acquisitions. This year, the health care sector could not even wait until the second full week of January to kick off an acquisition announcement spree. The quick start is an early ... READ MORE >
The case for assistance to state and local governments
More than 1.3 million state and local government jobs have been lost since December 2019. While this is the result of a broader economic shock across industrial sectors, we expect additional furloughs in state and local governments unless federal aid is quickly put in place to offset the collapse in tax revenues. Although a windfall from capital gains ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Longer-term stagnation in the labor force
The December labor report and the overall decrease of 140,000 jobs was, by most accounts, a pause in the progress made during the past six months. The composition of the report released on Friday was almost all determined by the loss of 498,000 employees in the leisure and hospitality sector, with a majority of sectors experiencing modest to strong ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: As vaccination begins, health care remains underemployed
The pandemic brought about a rare reduction in health care jobs at a time when they are most needed, for both patient care and for the effort to vaccinate millions of Americans against COVID-19. Hospitals reduced headcount by 126,200 jobs last April, which was the largest reduction since the Bureau of Labor Statistics began tracking the figure in 1989. The ... READ MORE >