The Federal Reserve on Wednesday signaled that it intends to use both conventional and unconventional tools to address risks to the economic outlook caused by inflation even as the economy remains short of full employment. The major changes to the Federal Open Market Committee statement released after the FOMC's meeting imply that policy normalization ... READ MORE >
Covid-19
Bank of Canada keeps rates steady but prepares for rate hikes ahead
The Bank of Canada kept its policy rate at 0.25% at its January meeting on Wednesday as it prepares to hike rates in March and subsequently draw down its balance sheet. In its announcement, the central bank has removed its exceptional forward guidance on its policy rate, saying that “the economic slack is now absorbed.” While the market has priced ... READ MORE >
Chart of the day: Omicron variant will extract a powerful economic toll
The health crisis caused by COVID-19 is entering its third year and is taking an ever-increasing human toll. This latest wave—attributed to the omicron variant—has infected around 814,000 people per day, which is 4.85 times greater than the peak of the wave attributed to the delta variant. The variant has caused many people to pull back on work and ... READ MORE >
Chart of the day: Existing home sales fall 4.6%
Existing home sales in the United States cooled off significantly in December, dropping 4.6% on the month to 6.18 million amid near-record housing prices and supply constraints, according to a report from the National Association of Realtors on Thursday. Still, 2021 was a record year for the housing market with 6.12 million existing homes sold—the highest ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims reach 13-week high amid omicron variant’s surge
New filings for jobless benefits last week jumped to 286,000, the second sharp increase in a row from 231,000 the week before as the surge in omicron cases led to temporary layoffs across the country, according to government data released Thursday. Despite a tight labor market where companies are fighting to retain their workers, the spread of the omicron ... READ MORE >
Canada inflation highest since 1991 as supply chain disruptions continue
Canada’s consumer price index hit 4.8% in December, the highest since 1991 as supply chain disruptions continued, according to data released by Statistics Canada on Wednesday. The inflation is driven by supply chain disruptions, pent-up demand and inflation expectations. While pent-up demand is expected to ease as pandemic spending winds down, supply ... READ MORE >
Chart of the day: Housing starts and permits end year with upside surprises
The housing market ended the year on a strong note as housing starts and permits rose unexpectedly in December, beating estimates of potential declines. Most of the monthly gains came from sharp increases in multifamily homes, a sign of strong confidence among builders—which was in line with data from the National Association of Home Builders released ... READ MORE >
RSM US Supply Chain Index: The worst may have passed, but choppy waters remain
The strength of the supply chain in the United States showed significant improvement for a second straight month in December after reaching a two-decade low in October, according to the newest data from the RSM US Supply Chain Index. The index rose 24% on the month to 3.12 standard deviations below long-term normal conditions, implying that while ... READ MORE >
Chart of the day: Industrial production inched down in December
The omicron variant’s spread put pressure on industrial production in December as production declined by 0.1%, missing the estimate of a 0.2% increase on the month, according to data from the Federal Reserve on Friday. The unexpected decline was mostly offset by an upward revision of 0.2 percentage points to November's reading, which now stands at a 0.7% ... READ MORE >
U.S. retail sales decline despite a strong holiday season
Price pressures and continued labor shortages magnified by the rapid spread of the omicron variant drove retail sales down by a disappointing 1.9% in December. The decline on the month came despite a strong holiday shopping season, when many consumers heeded warnings about depleted inventories and made their purchases earlier. Beyond the decline in ... READ MORE >