Solid consumer spending driven by real personal income gains and sustained private investment will underscore a steady pace of growth at or near the 1.8% long-run rate in the United States in 2024. We expect that policy tailwinds from both the fiscal and monetary authorities will set the stage for ... READ MORE >
gross domestic product
Potential impact of UAW strike would not be sufficient to cause recession
The threat of a strike among the 146,000 United Auto Workers at the so-called Big Three automakers of Ford, General Motors and Stellantis puts at risk half a billion dollars per day in an economy that generates more than $26.7 trillion in goods and services each year, or more than $73 billion per ... READ MORE >
U.S. second-half economic outlook: Muddling through
The resilient American economy refuses to go gentle into that good night. The evidence is growing stronger: A rapid decline in inflation amid robust hiring and an unemployment rate that stands at 3.6% despite a steep rise in interest rates. That reality, reflected by what looks to be ... READ MORE >
What would happen if the government defaults on its debt?
Another debt ceiling crisis is approaching, and it is in no one’s best interest. Policy brinksmanship over lifting the debt ceiling and the threat of default it brings is increasing the cost of doing business and carries far more risk than is commonly acknowledged. At its core, the stand-off ... READ MORE >
Business spending on equipment falls more than expected
Orders and shipments of core capital goods that exclude defense and aircraft spending, a key measure of private business investment, both fell by 0.4% in March, the Commerce Department reported on Wednesday. It is now clear that the nonresidential component of private investment has caught up ... READ MORE >
Jobless claims inch up while revised GDP shows softer growth
New filings for jobless benefits inched up to 198,000 last week from 191,000 the previous week, staying below the pre-pandemic level, according to government data released Thursday. Claims numbers have been consistently low recently, showing a resilient labor market where demand for labor ... READ MORE >
U.S. GDP: Resilient growth closes out a challenging year
A resilient American economy grew by 2.9% during the final three months of last year because of a strong increase in demand for services by consumers, fixed business investment and inventory restocking. Overall gross domestic product for the full year increased by 2.1% on an annualized basis and by ... READ MORE >
U.S. GDP declines by 1.4%: This is what an overheating economy looks like
This is what an overheating economy looks like. Growth in the first three months of the year contracted at a 1.4% pace as Americans turned to imports to meet torrid demand that is simply unsustainable. While the grim top-line number belies strong domestic productivity-enhancing business investment and ... READ MORE >
U.S. GDP increases 6.9% in fourth quarter
The American economy closed out last year on an upbeat note, finishing with a 6.9% growth rate in the fourth quarter on a seasonally adjusted annualized pace, according to Commerce Department data released on Thursday. For the full year, growth advanced by 5.7%, the strongest rate since 1984. The ... READ MORE >
Chart of the day: Omicron variant will extract a powerful economic toll
The health crisis caused by COVID-19 is entering its third year and is taking an ever-increasing human toll. This latest wave—attributed to the omicron variant—has infected around 814,000 people per day, which is 4.85 times greater than the peak of the wave attributed to the delta variant. The variant ... READ MORE >