The health crisis caused by COVID-19 is entering its third year and is taking an ever-increasing human toll. This latest wave—attributed to the omicron variant—has infected around 814,000 people per day, which is 4.85 times greater than the peak of the wave attributed to the delta variant. The variant ... READ MORE >
gross domestic product
Our economic outlook for Canada in 2022
Canada’s economy had a bumpy ride in the past year, as the promise of mass vaccinations was followed by supply chain disruptions, a global energy crisis and rising inflation. Looking ahead to next year, we see a Canadian economy continuing to recover, even as businesses and consumers contend with ... READ MORE >
Looking ahead to 2022 and what to expect in the economy
Nearly two years into the pandemic, there are signs that the worst of a once-in-a-century shock to the global economy is beginning to fade. As the economy approaches a full reopening, we expect growth in 2022 will exceed 4%, the unemployment rate will fall to 3.5% and job growth will average ... READ MORE >
Enhanced child tax credit was a game-changer for families, and the economy
Even as the economy slowed in the third quarter as the delta variant took hold, that slowdown would have been far worse if not for the enhanced child tax credit that was introduced on July 15. By our estimate, the enhanced child tax credit, which provided direct payments to about 35 ... READ MORE >
GDP grows 2% as delta variant, supply chains and inflation take their toll
The delta variant, disruptions to global supply chains and inflation all took a powerful toll on U.S. gross domestic product in the third quarter as the pace of growth slowed to 2% from 6.7% in the prior quarter. On a year-ago basis, GDP increased by 4.9%, while on a nominal basis, GDP expanded at ... READ MORE >
GDP preview: Look for 2.9% growth in third quarter
Economic growth in the third quarter will capture the impact of the delta variant on the economy as disruptions to supply chains and rising inflation have dampened household consumption and fixed investment by businesses. We expect that U.S. gross domestic product in the third quarter will arrive at ... READ MORE >
Honey, I shrunk the output gap: Four quarters of investment growth begin to heal the economy
The gap between the actual and potential gross domestic product narrowed dramatically during the second quarter of the year. Real GDP grew by more than 12% on a year-over-year basis while nominal GDP in current dollar terms grew at a nearly 17% yearly rate. That was enough to reduce the already ... READ MORE >
GDP expands by 6.5% in second quarter as expansion takes hold
A global public health crisis resulting in a 31.4% decline in gross domestic product in the second quarter of last year has turned to expansion because of sustained robust fiscal aid and unorthodox monetary policy. The U.S. economy grew by 6.5% in the second quarter, marking the start of the current ... READ MORE >
Economic update: GDP to grow above 7% this year as expansion takes hold
The American economy will continue to boom in the second half of the year following what we expect will be 7.8% growth through the first six months. While growth will almost certainly peak in the second quarter at our revised 9.2% forecast, rising wages among workers down the income ladder will ... READ MORE >
First-quarter GDP: Growth improves as the recovery accelerates
An improved public health outlook linked to mass vaccinations and a flood of fiscal aid coursing through the American economy boosted gross domestic product by 6.4% during the first three months of the year. The composition of growth was rock solid as American households increased spending by ... READ MORE >