The unemployment rate increased by 0.3 percentage points to 6.8 per cent — the highest since January 2017—as more people looked for work. … READ MORE >
inflation
The U.S. economic year ahead: Regime change, growth and rising interest rates
The American economy continues to undergo a regime change that will bring less volatility and greater resilience to shocks. … READ MORE >
Fed cuts rate by a quarter point ahead of a possible pause
Slowing inflation and strong productivity gains imply that the Fed has ample room to keep cutting rates next year. … READ MORE >
U.S. August CPI: Further signs of moderation as energy prices decline
Inflation inside the consumer price index continued to moderate in August as the top-line figure increased by 0.2% on the month and by 2.5% on a year-ago basis. … READ MORE >
Financial markets update: Front-running the Fed’s first cut, and our new call on rates
We are updating our year-end rate call to 3.7% on the 10-year yield with risk of a move lower as growth, inflation and hiring cool. … READ MORE >
Fed’s key inflation gauge shows price stability as consumers hit the accelerator
The American economy is poised to grow at or above the long-term 1.8% rate as the Fed begins its rate-cutting campaign, which should put a floor under growth and hiring. … READ MORE >
The TIPS bond market sees 2.1% inflation over the next 10 years
The recent drop in both Treasury yields and TIPS yields are adding credence to the success of the Federal Reserve’s campaign to squeeze inflation out of the economy. … READ MORE >
Seven reasons why the U.S. economy will not fall into recession
The American economy is not heading into a recession. The economy has shown resilience despite high interest rates and elevated inflation. … READ MORE >
US July CPI: Further moderation in inflation as Fed prepares policy pivot
Inflation continued to moderate in July as both topline and core inflation increased 0.2% while the former increased 2.9% from one year ago and the latter advanced 3.2%. The internals of the report tend to suggest that there will be further relief in the offing as housing and service inflation has plenty of room to ease further in the second half of the year. … READ MORE >
Producer prices grow slower than expected, adding evidence to support rate cut
Key inflation metrics reflect a more-than-tolerable range of inflation that requires no further tightening of monetary policy. … READ MORE >