Despite expectations for a decline in weekly unemployment numbers, jobless claims for the week ended Sept. 5 held steady, signaling that the climb toward economic recovery remains volatile amid the ongoing impact on the COVID-19 pandemic. Millions of Americans are unemployed and face longstanding ... READ MORE >
Kevin Depew
CHART OF THE DAY: Americans with no job for 27 weeks or more rises sharply
The number of Americans without a job for 27 weeks or more rose in August to the highest level in three years. The reason this matters? Labor market studies by the Federal Reserve show that individuals who experience joblessness for more than 26 weeks face increasing risk of becoming permanently detached ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Mixed picture for initial jobless claims in week ended Aug. 29
The number of initial jobless claims fell in the week ended Aug. 29 to a seasonally adjusted 881,000 from 1.01 million in the prior week. But data from the Labor Department, which announced changes to its methodology on Thursday to factor out pandemic distortions, doesn't tell the whole picture. Despite ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Weekly initial jobless claims higher than expected
In a sobering surprise, the Labor Department reported on Thursday that initial jobless claims for the week ended Aug. 15 reached a higher-than-expected 1.1 million, a sign the road to economic recovery will be bumpy and volatile as the country struggles to gain footing amid the COVID-19 pandemic. The ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Pipeline pressures remain muted amid inflation fears
Headline consumer and producer prices in July both exceeded consensus expectations, prompting worry about rising prices. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey of five-10-year inflation expectations is at 3%, the highest level since 2016 as the global pandemic has impacted a wide array of ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Continuing jobless claims data point to cracks in labor market
The insured unemployment rate increased to 10.6% for the week ending Aug. 1, which is above the Bureau of Labor Statistics' July estimate of 10.2%, implying August nonfarm payrolls may be less robust than expected. The insured unemployment rate represents the number of people currently receiving ... READ MORE >
Closer look at monthly jobs data shows the glass only half full
The decade-long recovery from the Great Recession reveals some cracks in the glass. The monthly change in non-farm payrolls is closely followed by financial markets and is often the catalyst for outsized market moves. We say that because the payroll series is volatile, with a 1960-2020 average change of ... READ MORE >
Think China is paying for tariffs? Guess again
The U.S. Customs and Border Patrol is on pace to collect more than $72 billion in import duties as a result of U.S. tariffs so far this year. An oft-repeated claim is that China is paying the cost of these new duties. But we have data showing exactly who is paying--U.S. businesses and ... READ MORE >
RSM Deputy Chief Economist Kevin Depew decodes tariffs, tech changes and labor in this ACG podcast
Kevin Depew, RSM deputy chief economist and industry eminence program leader, discusses RSM's proprietary second quarter Middle Market Business Index results with Kathryn Mulligan, editor-in-chief of ACG Global's Middle Market Growth magazine, in a podcast taped on June 19. Besides the MMBI's Q2 ... READ MORE >