Despite expectations for a decline in weekly unemployment numbers, jobless claims for the week ended Sept. 5 held steady, signaling that the climb toward economic recovery remains volatile amid the ongoing impact on the COVID-19 pandemic. … READ MORE >
Kevin Depew
CHART OF THE DAY: Americans with no job for 27 weeks or more rises sharply
Labor market studies by the Federal Reserve show that individuals who experience joblessness for more than 26 weeks face increasing risk of becoming permanently detached from the labor force, contributing to structural unemployment in the economy. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Mixed picture for initial jobless claims in week ended Aug. 29
The number of initial jobless claims fell in the week ended Aug. 29 to a seasonally adjusted 881,000 from 1.01 million in the prior week. But data from the Labor Department, which announced changes to its methodology on Thursday to factor out pandemic distortions, doesn’t tell the whole picture. Despite the week over week decline in claims, the number of people seeking relief from other programs, including a government-sponsored pandemic relief program, were up. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Weekly initial jobless claims higher than expected
In a sobering surprise, the Labor Department reported on Thursday that initial jobless claims for the week ended Aug. 15 reached a higher-than-expected 1.1 million, a sign the road to economic recovery will be bumpy and volatile as the country struggles to gain footing amid the COVID-19 pandemic. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Pipeline pressures remain muted amid inflation fears
Headline consumer and producer prices in July both exceeded consensus expectations, prompting worry about rising prices. Meanwhile, a look closer at price pressures along the production chain suggests there is less near-term inflation fear than meets the eye. Year-over-year core producer prices and final demand are both negative, reflecting diminished pricing power for firms. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Continuing jobless claims data point to cracks in labor market
As we enter week 22 of pandemic-induced job losses, the increase in the duration of unemployment is becoming worrisome. The insured unemployment rate increased to 10.6% for the week ending Aug. 1, which is above the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ July estimate of 10.2%, implying August nonfarm payrolls may be less robust than expected. … READ MORE >
Closer look at monthly jobs data shows the glass only half full
The monthly change in non-farm payrolls is closely followed by financial markets and is often the catalyst for outsized market moves. Analysis of the payroll data outside of the traditional focus on the latest monthly number shows some cracks in the decade-long recovery from the 2007-09 Great Recession, pointing to long-term issues that will likely need to be addressed by monetary and fiscal policymakers. … READ MORE >
Think China is paying for tariffs? Guess again
So far in 2019, the U.S. Customs and Border Patrol is on pace to collect more than $72 billion in import duties as a result of U.S. tariffs. An oft-repeated claim is that China is paying the cost of the tariffs. But we have data showing exactly who is paying for the tariffs: U.S. businesses and households. … READ MORE >
RSM Deputy Chief Economist Kevin Depew decodes tariffs, tech changes and labor in this ACG podcast
Kevin Depew, RSM deputy chief economist and industry eminence program leader, discusses the firm’s proprietary second quarter Middle Market Business Index results with Kathryn Mulligan, editor-in-chief of ACG Global’s Middle Market Growth magazine, in a podcast taped on June 19. … READ MORE >