Unfunded tax cuts, outlays on defense and infrastructure as well as rising inflation expectations are pushing global bond yields higher, which will put at risk private sector investment. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Estimating tariff revenues on EU exports to the U.S.
Using Penn-Wharton’s tariff simulator one can estimate the revenue generation linked to a large tariff on all imports to the U.S. from the EU. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Rising duration premium points to heightened risk in long-dated debt
The 30-year swap is pointing toward greater risk in U.S. Treasury funding as trade and fiscal policies suggest higher inflation, rising interest rates and growing government deficits to fund a large tax cut. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Financial conditions a modest drag on growth
We expect the cost of credit for businesses to be pressured higher as the risk of a slowdown increases. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: A widening U.S. 30-year/10-year spread points to long-term change
Now, as populist economics takes hold and globalization fades, nowhere is the new regime better illustrated than in the U.S. 30-year less 10-year Treasury spread in the bond market. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Something’s got to give in financial markets
Now, as the impact of tariffs begins to hit consumers, it would not be surprising if investors push yields higher and the dollar lower. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Fiscal policy in the spotlight after U.S. credit rating downgrade
Following the downgrade of the U.S. credit rating by Moody’s from Aaa to Aa1, we expect a rising risk premium across the Treasury curve. … READ MORE >
Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. credit rating and the rising term premium
Yields could very well rise in the near term with the 30-year Treasury note testing 5% and the 10-year approaching 4.5%. … READ MORE >
Inflation expectations surge as effective tariff rate hits 17.8%
The sharp increase, which comes as higher tariffs are about to take hold, heightens the risk that the Federal Reserve is losing control of what until recently were well-anchored expectations and, consequently, price stability. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Strategic autonomy, India and the U.S. trade relationship
While there is ample room for India to lower its tariffs, it is doubtful that India will give much on its oil imports or any framework that restricts efforts to move up the value chain in the global economy. … READ MORE >