Initial claims for jobless benefits for the week ending March 30 show that American workers continue to have remarkable job security. First-time claims increased to 221,000 from an upwardly revised 212,000 during the previous week, which was modestly above our preferred metric, the 13-week moving average, ... READ MORE >
Full employment, low inflation and a virtuous cycle in the American economy
Until recently, the idea that economy could simultaneously have low levels of unemployment and low inflation seemed to be a fantasy. Conventional wisdom, after all, holds that when unemployment is low, businesses need to pay higher wages to attract workers, which pushes up the cost of goods and services, ... READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: The Boeing effect takes a toll
The RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index declined in March to 1.8 standard deviations below the levels of activity that would normally be expected, reflecting sluggish activity across the production sector in general and the problems at Boeing in particular. Only the Philadelphia region offered signs ... READ MORE >
Federal Reserve’s policy path points to a rate cut in June
Our modified Taylor Rule implies that the federal funds policy rate should be reduced to a range between 4.75% and 5% in the near term which underscores our call for the Federal Reserve to reduce its policy rate at the June meeting. Given our forecast of a modest 2.1% pace of growth this year, a cut in ... READ MORE >
Fed holds rates steady as it implies three rate cuts in 2024
The Federal Reserve is looking to cut its policy rate three times this year, according to information inferred from the Summary of Economic Projections and policy statement released on Wednesday. The cuts would reduce the policy rate by 75 basis points, from the current range between 5.25% and 5.5% ... READ MORE >
FOMC preview: A status quo meeting
We anticipate that the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on March 19 and 20 will maintain the status quo in its policies. Our forecast implies no change in the federal funds rate, which will remain in a range between 5.25% and 5.5%. The FOMC’s median projection for interest rates in its dot ... READ MORE >
Should the U.S. ban imports of Chinese electric vehicles?
The Biden administration recently ordered an investigation into the national security threat posed by Chinese connected-vehicle technology. The outcome, if taken to an extreme, could result in a ban on the import of Chinese vehicles into the United States. But there is much more driving the ... READ MORE >
U.S. employment report: Robust hiring continued in February
Sustained demand for labor in the American economy was on vivid display on Friday as the Labor Department reported that 275,000 jobs were created in February. The Bureau of Labor Statistics revised down its initial estimate of the January jobs report from 353,000 jobs created to 229,000 and the ... READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: Soft sentiment in an uneven recovery
The slowdown in manufacturing continued into February, but at a slower pace, according to surveys conducted by regional Federal Reserve banks. In fact, two of the five regions used in our analysis of regional manufacturing (Philadelphia and Dallas) reported overall positive responses. Three regions ... READ MORE >
How real is the wealth effect in a bull market?
Despite what you might read or hear, the stock market is not the economy. But that does not mean you should ignore the effect that the stock market has on household income and spending, the labor market, overall financial conditions and economic growth. A 2021 paper in the American Economic Review ... READ MORE >