Yields could very well rise in the near term with the 30-year Treasury note testing 5% and the 10-year approaching 4.5%. … READ MORE >
Inflation expectations surge as effective tariff rate hits 17.8%
The sharp increase, which comes as higher tariffs are about to take hold, heightens the risk that the Federal Reserve is losing control of what until recently were well-anchored expectations and, consequently, price stability. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Strategic autonomy, India and the U.S. trade relationship
While there is ample room for India to lower its tariffs, it is doubtful that India will give much on its oil imports or any framework that restricts efforts to move up the value chain in the global economy. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: The bond market is not buying it
Fixed-income investors are sniffing out the logic of economic populism amid a move toward trade protectionism, which strongly implies higher inflation and rising long-term yields. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Household stress evident in rising delinquencies
The U.S. Household Debt and Credit Report, published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, shows growing signs of stress, particularly when it comes to credit cards and student loans. … READ MORE >
In April CPI report, scant evidence of tariff-induced inflation
We think it probable that the pervasive uncertainty around trade policy caused businesses to simply remain in place until they had more information about the tariffs. … READ MORE >
With trade truce, U.S. and China avoid a decoupling, but devil is in the details
The bottom line is that American firms can now prepare for a significant increase in the cost of imports, which will then be passed along to consumers. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: CPI will start to reflect tariffs, especially in used autos
The April consumer price index will provide insight in the early days of the current trade conflict when it is released Wednesday as signs of rising prices for apparel, autos, shoes and toys will begin to appear. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: New era for Asian currencies and the dollar?
Since the end of March, the U.S. dollar has lost 4.6% of its value versus the euro and 4.1% against the Japanese yen. As of May 7, the Taiwan dollar has gained a whopping 8.8% against the U.S. dollar. … READ MORE >
The U.S.-UK trade agreement that isn’t
A trade agreement where the details are still being negotiated is not an agreement. It’s a memorandum of understanding that over time may yield a productive framework for trade or not. … READ MORE >