The standoff over raising the federal government’s debt ceiling is not the first time that members of Congress have threatened to default on payments of existing U.S. public debt. During past episodes, the policy brinksmanship has pushed up the cost of financing, caused a selloff in equity markets and ... READ MORE >
FOMC preview: Fed to slow pace of rate hikes to 25 basis points
The easing of inflationary pressures, a slower pace of consumer spending and hiring, and the moderation of wage increases are coalescing in such a fashion that the Federal Open Market Committee next week should be comfortable slowing its rate increases. We anticipate that the FOMC will increase its ... READ MORE >
U.S. GDP: Resilient growth closes out a challenging year
A resilient American economy grew by 2.9% during the final three months of last year because of a strong increase in demand for services by consumers, fixed business investment and inventory restocking. Overall gross domestic product for the full year increased by 2.1% on an annualized basis and by ... READ MORE >
The pandemic response: Improving policies in future crises
This is the third article in a series examining major economic policy responses to the pandemic that targeted small and midsize businesses. The first article looks at the Paycheck Protection Program, and the second looks at the Main Street Lending Program. The economic collapse that accompanied the ... READ MORE >
The pandemic response: Assessing the Main Street Lending Program
This is the second article in a series examining major economic policy responses to the pandemic that targeted small and midsize businesses. The first article looks at the Paycheck Protection Program, and the third offers policy recommendations for responding to future crises. The inability of small ... READ MORE >
The pandemic response: Assessing the Paycheck Protection Program
This is the first article in a series this week examining major economic policy responses to the pandemic that targeted small and midsize businesses. The second article will look at the Main Street Lending Program, and the third will offer policy recommendations for responding to future ... READ MORE >
Shipping costs from China plunge, helping ease inflation
Moderating inflation across the global and domestic economies has been driven by declining costs of goods, which through December fell by 4.8% on a three-month average annualized basis. While there are risks around further disruptions to global supply chains linked to the surge in ... READ MORE >
U.S. inflation eases in December, supporting a moderation in Fed rate hikes
A third straight month of improvement in top-line inflation data implies that conditions are moving in the direction where the Federal Reserve can consider further moderation in the pace of its rate hike campaign to restore price stability. The tone and tenor of the data imply an underlying ... READ MORE >
U.S. financial markets in the new year
Financial markets have started the year facing a host of challenges, including the prospect of a stand-off over the debt ceiling in a divided Congress and the possibility of a recession later this year. At the same time, businesses are contending with higher costs associated with the ... READ MORE >
U.S. economy generates 4.5 million jobs in 2022 as labor market remains hot
If one would have asked a year ago if the economy would expand at above a 2.5% clip and produce 4.52 million jobs by the end of the year, all while the Federal Reserve raised its policy rate by 450 basis points, the answer would probably have been no. But that is just where the economy stands ... READ MORE >