The Real Economy Blog

Joseph Brusuelas, Chief Economist, RSM US LLP

@JoeBrusuelas

Joe Brusuelas, “chief economist to the middle market,” is the preeminent voice championing issues and policies facing midsize companies in the United States and around the world. An award-winning economist, Brusuelas has more than 20 years’ experience analyzing U.S. monetary policy, labor markets, fiscal policy, international finance, economic indicators and the condition of the U.S. consumer.

A member of the Wall Street Journal’s forecasting panel, Brusuelas regularly briefs members of Congress and other senior officials regarding the impacts of federal policy on the middle market and the factors by which middle market executives make business decisions. He also frequently offers his insights on the U.S., Canadian and global economies in the financial media. In 2020, he was named one of the 100 most influential economists by Richtopia.

Before joining RSM in 2014, Brusuelas spent four years as a senior economist at Bloomberg L.P. and the Bloomberg Briefs newsletter group, where he co-founded the award-winning Bloomberg Economic Brief. Earlier in his career, he was a director at Moody's Analytics covering the U.S. and global economies for the Dismal Scientist website. He also served as chief economist at Merk Investments L.L.C. and chief U.S. economist at IDEAglobal.

U.S. inflation outlook: Don’t believe the hype

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The reflation of the American economy following the debilitating effects of the pandemic has begun. Recent increases in growth forecasts, the January jump in retail sales, trillions of dollars in fiscal aid and stimulus, as well as the prospect of a household-led boom over the next two years, have spurred a debate around the prospects for inflation and ... READ MORE >

CHART OF THE DAY: Closing out the gap year

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A recent study by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis found sharp downturns last year in enrollments of freshman at four-year and two-year public colleges, and a moderate downturn at private four-year nonprofit colleges. There were fewer returning students (upper classes), but the decline was not different from other recession periods when household ... READ MORE >

Government transfers fuel robust income and spending: Incomes ex-transfers illustrate need for additional stimulus

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Government transfers from the end-of-year $908 billion fiscal aid package were the primary catalyst for the 10% increase in income and the 2.4% jump in spending, a robust kickoff to what is going to be one of the more memorable years in economic activity in decades. The personal savings rate increased to 20% in January from 13.7% in December. The amount of ... READ MORE >

Initial jobless claims: Only cold comfort for those out of work

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Seasonal distortions caused a larger-than-expected decline in first-time jobless claims to 730,000 for the week ending Feb. 20, which significantly understates the true pace of first-time firings across the economy. We would urge policymakers to approach the decline with a grain of salt, which is generally more than was available for the roads in ... READ MORE >

CHART OF THE DAY: Leading indicator points toward economic reflation

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The Conference Board’s leading economic indicator continues to point toward a reflation of the economy from the shock of the pandemic. The board's Leading Economic Index, released on Monday, showed a monthly gain of 0.5% in January to 110.3, continuing a string of increases. We expect a 6.1% rate of growth in the American economy this year. But even with ... READ MORE >

CHART OF THE DAY: The 10-year Treasury yield goes its own way

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The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds rose above 1.3% four times on Wednesday before closing just below 1.28%. The securities continued to trade in that range on Thursday. This comes despite the Federal Reserve’s efforts to suppress the cost of borrowing. Fixed-income investors are clearly pricing in a general reflation of the economy this year that will ... READ MORE >