The American labor market rests at or near full employment. A 4.1% unemployment rate, a labor force increase of 683,000, and an advance of 162,000 in monthly hiring all point to a solid working definition of what that means in 2026. Once one adjusts for a two-month upward revision of … … READ MORE >
Market Minute: August U.S. jobs report preview
We are forecasting a 25,000-job increase and a 4.1% unemployment rate when the August jobs data is released on Friday. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Regime change in rates rolls higher
Investors are pushing up rates as inflation rises, nations add to their debt and as geopolitical risk continues unabated. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Diesel inventories near 20-year low as prices rise
Distillate inventories fell by 2.2 million barrels to 103.4 million for the week ending Aug. 26, according to the U.S. EIA. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: $40 trillion in debt and rising as free lunch expires
Even an artificial intelligence-driven boom over the next few years will not be sufficient to avoid hard budget choices in Washington. … READ MORE >
Inflation is not going gently into that good night
Both headline and core PCE inflation advanced by 0.2% on the month while on a year-ago basis prices advanced by 3.7% for the headline number and 3.3% for the core. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: U.S. deficits, fiscal consolidation and Treasury jawboning of bond market
The bond market remains unimpressed with the Treasury Department’s moves to reduce interest rates. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Treasury’s bond buybacks won’t work for long
The small quantity and short-term nature of the intervention will not alter curve dynamics and rates in any meaningful way. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Global investors are sounding the alarm on debt
Yields on 30-year notes in the United States and UK are at their highest levels in two decades. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: India’s inflation edges higher again
India’s consumer price index accelerated in July, climbing to 4.45% on an annual basis and exceeding the Reserve Bank of India’s 4% medium-term target for a second straight month. … READ MORE >









