Demands by market actors for accommodative policy linked to a diminished global and domestic economic outlook resulted in a reduction in the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range between 1.75% and 2%. In our estimation, this is likely not the final rate cut of 2019 by a central bank clearly concerned with the direction of trade policy, a modest ... READ MORE >
Modest supply shock to global oil to boost US retail gas prices
The attack on the Saudi oil production facility at Abqaiq over the weekend will temporarily remove roughly 5.7 million barrels of oil production per day, or about 5% of the total global supply. The price of global benchmark Brent Crude rose 14.25% on Monday, while West Texas Intermediate was up 14.38%. Saudi oil accounts for approximately 12% of global ... READ MORE >
Fed preview: Difficulty and divided FOMC
Monetary policy is difficult under the best of circumstances. The cross currents of the trade war, a modest exogenous supply shock in oil markets, political pressure from the executive branch to reduce interest rates and former colleagues suggesting the Federal Reserve get political make the rate decision resulting from the upcoming FOMC meeting one of the ... READ MORE >
The RSM Brexit Stress Index eases on moves to curtail abrupt withdrawal from EU
The RSM Brexit Stress Index eased again this week, as Parliament took additional steps to prevent a reckless exit from the European Union. The index fell to 1.24 standard deviations above normal levels of stress at market close on Friday, down from 1.42 a week earlier. Though still high, this suggests an improvement from the dire conditions of just two weeks ... READ MORE >
The RSM Brexit Stress Index: Reacting to a Parliamentary dose of recession prevention
The RSM Brexit Stress Index surged sharply during the week amid attempts by Boris Johnson, the Conservative Party prime minister, to curtail objections to a no-deal Brexit but eased at week’s end as Parliament regained control of government. The index rose as high as 1.97 standard deviations above normal at midweek, its highest level since the June 2016 ... READ MORE >
August hiring slows: Jobs report shows unflattering shape of things to come
August hiring slowed to 130,000 jobs, reflecting late-cycle business dynamics and the impact of the trade war that is now spilling over into the real economy. After adjusting for Census Bureau hiring, the top-line hiring increase was only 105,000 jobs, just above the 100,000 necessary to stabilize the unemployment rate. In short, Friday’s government report ... READ MORE >
US August employment preview: focus on goods producing and manufacturing jobs
Investor attention will be squarely focused on the pace of hiring in goods production and manufacturing in the August U.S. employment report released on Friday. The results will follow a decline in the August ISM manufacturing employment sub-index to 47.4, which implies contraction in hiring across those sectors. Amid heightened risk for industries linked ... READ MORE >
RSM Brexit Stress Index posts highest level since June 2016 referendum
The RSM Brexit Stress Index reached its highest level since the U.K.’s June 2016 referendum to leave the European Union, closing at 1.93, up 8 points on Tuesday from 1.85 a week earlier, amid instability in the U.K. government. Earlier in the day, Conservative Party Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who favors a stark separation from the EU by the deadline of ... READ MORE >
RSM Brexit Stress Index surges on likelihood of “no deal” Brexit
The RSM Brexit Stress Index surged on Wednesday, following news that the government of Prime Minister Boris Johnson had received the okay to suspend Parliament just weeks ahead of a deadline for the U.K. to chart its path for withdrawal from the European Union. The composite index, which measures economic stress surrounding Britain’s impending departure ... READ MORE >
RSM Brexit Stress Index: Factoring in longer-term issues
The RSM Brexit Stress Index ended higher again this week on increased volatility. The composite index, which measures economic stress surrounding Britain’s impending departure from the European Union, closed at 1.74 on Friday from 1.64 a week ago. The foreign exchange market remains focused on Germany’s manufacturing recession and the direction of ... READ MORE >