The Real Economy Blog

Joseph Brusuelas, Chief Economist, RSM US LLP

@JoeBrusuelas

Joe Brusuelas, “chief economist to the middle market,” is the preeminent voice championing issues and policies facing midsize companies in the United States and around the world. An award-winning economist, Brusuelas has more than 20 years’ experience analyzing U.S. monetary policy, labor markets, fiscal policy, international finance, economic indicators and the condition of the U.S. consumer.

A member of the Wall Street Journal’s forecasting panel, Brusuelas regularly briefs members of Congress and other senior officials regarding the impacts of federal policy on the middle market and the factors by which middle market executives make business decisions. He also frequently offers his insights on the U.S., Canadian and global economies in the financial media. In 2020, he was named one of the 100 most influential economists by Richtopia.

Before joining RSM in 2014, Brusuelas spent four years as a senior economist at Bloomberg L.P. and the Bloomberg Briefs newsletter group, where he co-founded the award-winning Bloomberg Economic Brief. Earlier in his career, he was a director at Moody's Analytics covering the U.S. and global economies for the Dismal Scientist website. He also served as chief economist at Merk Investments L.L.C. and chief U.S. economist at IDEAglobal.

CHART OF THE DAY: Yield spread flattens as inflation trade unwinds

by

The Federal Open Market Committee unleashed a sharp change in market expectations following its Wednesday meeting, helping to curtail inflation fears. The idea of the first rate hike being pulled forward into 2023 with a possibility of 2022 elicited a change in the inflation trade and a resetting of market expectations of inflation. While the initial ... READ MORE >

A 2021 ‘taper tantrum’? Not likely, but requires monitoring

by

Over the past month, there has been much speculation by financial market participants that the Federal Reserve is preparing to pare back or change the outright composition of its $120 billion in monthly asset purchases—$80 billion in treasuries and $40 billion in mortgage-backed securities—that have damped rates along the entire maturity spectrum as well as ... READ MORE >

FOMC comment: Fed creates context to end pandemic policy efforts

by

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday took another step in the long road to policy normalization in the post-pandemic economy. At the monthly meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, the central bank kept its policy rate unchanged in a range between 0 and 25 basis points. But it is clear that given the accelerating economy, a forecast of higher inflation ... READ MORE >

FOMC preview: Growth and inflation and tapering, oh my!

by

The Federal Open Market Committee will leave its policy rate unchanged at its meeting this week, but that decision will mask an underlying shift in its economic projections and policies. Consider three areas where this shift is occurring: The dot plot, which shows committee members’ projections for the federal funds rate, will most likely pull forward ... READ MORE >

What’s behind the recent decline in 10-year Treasury yields

by

The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds has dropped nearly 25 basis points to below 1.5%, touching 1.42% overnight on June 11 from its recent peak of 1.74% on March 31. If the initial move up to 1.74% can be rationalized as a response to the risks around higher growth and inflation, then this recent move below 1.5% in the midst of an economic recovery ... READ MORE >

CHART OF THE DAY: Initial jobless claims continue downward trend

by

Initial jobless claims continued to decelerate for the sixth straight week as the labor market slowly normalizes, according to government data released Thursday. State employment agencies reported 376,000 new claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending June 5, down from 800,000 claims per week earlier in the year. As claims decline, more ... READ MORE >