The Real Economy Blog

Joseph Brusuelas, Chief Economist, RSM US LLP

@JoeBrusuelas

Joe Brusuelas, “chief economist to the middle market,” is the preeminent voice championing issues and policies facing midsize companies in the United States and around the world. An award-winning economist, Brusuelas has more than 20 years’ experience analyzing U.S. monetary policy, labor markets, fiscal policy, international finance, economic indicators and the condition of the U.S. consumer.

A member of the Wall Street Journal’s forecasting panel, Brusuelas regularly briefs members of Congress and other senior officials regarding the impacts of federal policy on the middle market and the factors by which middle market executives make business decisions. He also frequently offers his insights on the U.S., Canadian and global economies in the financial media. In 2020, he was named one of the 100 most influential economists by Richtopia.

Before joining RSM in 2014, Brusuelas spent four years as a senior economist at Bloomberg L.P. and the Bloomberg Briefs newsletter group, where he co-founded the award-winning Bloomberg Economic Brief. Earlier in his career, he was a director at Moody's Analytics covering the U.S. and global economies for the Dismal Scientist website. He also served as chief economist at Merk Investments L.L.C. and chief U.S. economist at IDEAglobal.

RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index rises for second month in a row

by

The RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index rose for the second month in a row in September as economic conditions continued to improve. The index, which is based on surveys of manufacturing activity and sentiment by regional Federal Reserve banks, came in at 0.7 standard deviations above expectations, up from 0.4 standard deviations recorded in August. The ... READ MORE >

CHART OF THE DAY: Junk bonds are the canary in the coal mine

by

The recent surge in coronavirus infections is causing renewed concerns about economic growth and is likely exerting an indirect effect on the bond market, increasing the yield on low-rated/high-yield corporate bonds relative to the guaranteed yield of U.S. Treasury bonds. When the market becomes concerned about the growth and viability of ... READ MORE >

Tracking the spread of coronavirus: Prelude to the cooler months

by

There has been a 20% increase in the number of states reporting a rise in coronavirus cases since a week ago – an unfortunate but not unexpected trend. We are entering the colder months – when infections are expected to rise as people move inside – and we have yet to lower the rate of infection to the insignificant levels that might allow for the return ... READ MORE >

In the long run, U.S. needs a productivity miracle

by

The Congressional Budget Office this week published its long-term budget outlook for 2020. Not surprisingly, its forecast of a 107% debt-to-GDP ratio in 2023 rising to 195% in 2050 garnered all of the attention. But beneath the headline are significant policy challenges facing the U.S. economy. Once one looks at the baseline assumptions, it’s clear ... READ MORE >

CHART OF THE DAY: Resurgence of pandemic in the U.K.

by

The sharp sell-off across financial markets on Monday is linked to fears about a global resurgence of the pandemic. Nowhere is that more evident than in the U.K., where R – the reproduction rate of COVID-19 – is approaching 1.7. That is akin to a nuclear event in terms of public health. An R at that reading could conceivably result in another round of ... READ MORE >

Initial jobless claims remain elevated at 860,000

by

The pace of firings in the U.S. economy remains well above anything observed during the Great Financial Crisis as 860,000 workers filed for first-time jobless claims for the week ending Sept. 12, a reflection of the deep scarring in the domestic labor market and economy. An additional 658,737 filed for federal Pandemic Unemployment Assistance, bringing ... READ MORE >

Monetary policy and inflation in the modern era

by

The Fed is embarking on a new era in monetary policy, switching from its point target of 2% inflation to a target range of 1% to 3%. This change is predicated on longer-run structural changes in the economy that are inherently disinflationary, a real neutral interest rate near zero and much slower growth in the economy, all of which have reduced the ... READ MORE >

FOMC comment: Fed follows through on its policy shift

by

The Federal Reserve followed through on its update of its long-run monetary framework, stating quite transparently on Wednesday that the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee “will aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2% for some time so that inflation averages 2% over time and longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2%. The ... READ MORE >