A slowing global economy and declining bond yields across the developed world—some negative—portend a deteriorating business climate ahead. To combat this broad slowdown, global central banks are shifting monetary policy toward more accommodative stances that include real negative rates, nominal negative rates, large-scale asset purchases and possibly ... READ MORE >
The RSM Brexit Stress Index: Global growth and the bond market
The RSM Brexit Stress Index moved higher this week, as the currency, equity and bond markets reacted to the political posturing around a hard exit from Europe’s common market and the impact of what looks to be a slowdown in global growth. The composite index, which measures economic stress surrounding Britain’s impending departure from the European Union, ... READ MORE >
Retail sales boom in June, industrial production flat
Today’s data comes close to wrapping up data collection for the second quarter of 2019, and imply that the consumer sector has robustly rebounded from a weak first three months of the year, while overall industrial production remains tepid at best. Based on the 0.4% increase on the month and a 1.8% increase on a year-ago basis in retail sales, we are ... READ MORE >
The RSM Brexit Stress Index: Adding to the list of unintended consequences
The RSM Brexit Stress Index moved higher again this week, as the market processed conflicting central banking trends: global equities pushed higher on an expected U.S. rate cut by the Federal Reserve and a quick turnaround in the U.K. bond market as the slim probability of a base rate cut by the Bank of England grew even smaller. The composite index, ... READ MORE >
Jobs rebound likely to fade in second half of year
The U.S. economy generated 224,000 jobs in June driven by solid increases in education and health, business services, good producing and construction jobs. After accounting for downward revisions to previous estimates the net result for June was a total change of 213,000 jobs. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate increased to 3.7 percent as the household ... READ MORE >
Tug-of-(Trade)-War: RSM Brexit Stress Index eases for week
The RSM Brexit Stress Index eased this week, as global equity markets pushed higher on news of a rapprochement among the parties in the U.S.-China trade war and anticipation of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The composite index—which measures economic stress surrounding Britain’s impending departure from the European Union—fell to 0.16 at ... READ MORE >
June US employment preview–slower pace of growth expected for Q2
We expect the labor market will reflect a slower pace of growth through the second quarter, resulting in a below-consensus estimate (165,000) net increase in total employment of 147,000 jobs and an increase in the unemployment rate to 3.7%. In our estimation, the primary narrative emerging from the June report will be sustained deceleration of hiring in the ... READ MORE >
The RSM Brexit Stress Index: Lower highs and lower lows
The RSM Brexit Stress Index closed slightly higher this week, as political talk centers on whether Boris Johnson, the Conservative Party front runner favored to take over as U.K. Prime Minister, can make good on his promise of removing Britain from the European Union with or without a deal. The index edged up to 0.26 on Friday from 0.23 a week earlier, ... READ MORE >
Calculating the likelihood of recession–RSM partners with UCLA Anderson Forecast
RSM recently entered into a strategic partnership with the UCLA Anderson Forecast, a longstanding and well-respected barometer of the economies of California and the United States issued by UCLA Anderson School of Management, based on GDP data and other economic indicators. Earlier in June, the Anderson School put on a conference that featured a ... READ MORE >
The RSM Brexit Stress Index: A respite, but for how long?
The RSM Brexit Stress Index closed lower for the third week in a row, as the British economy contends with an uncertain political future nearly a month after Prime Minister Theresa May’s announced resignation. The composite index—which measures economic stress surrounding Britain’s pending departure from the European Union—moderated to 0.23 on Friday from ... READ MORE >