The Bank of Canada held its overnight interest rate at 1.75% on Wednesday as the central bank kept its powder dry ahead of an uncertain path of growth in the domestic economy in 2020. The tone of the policy statement would imply that the Bank of Canada stands ready to cut rates to bolster the domestic economy should growth slow. Given that the ... READ MORE >
USMCA is a solid opportunity for the middle market
The new North American trade agreement represents a solid opportunity for American middle market firms to expand their participation in the regional and global economies. The pact, called the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, includes a chapter dedicated to small and medium enterprises – a first for a multilateral trade agreement – and also adopts a ... READ MORE >
The Bank of Canada’s dilemma — stability versus rate cut
Canadian money markets imply that the Bank of Canada will remain on hold at 1.75% at the interest rate announcement on Jan. 22. The implied probability of a rate change that day is nearly zero, according to the futures market. But we do think that the decision is a close call. While maintaining the overnight rate at 1.75% would appear to be prudent at the ... READ MORE >
Retail sales close out year on a positive note
The health of the American consumer remains strong as outlays on retail sales closed out the year on a positive note with plenty of room for upward revisions. U.S. December advance retail sales increased 0.3% on a month-over-month basis and was up 6% on a year-ago basis. The control group that is used to estimate household spending inside the GDP ... READ MORE >
Women outnumber men in the workforce, and the middle market must adapt
Rarely are inflection points in the history of an economy or a nation observed in real time. Profound change is often only identified long after it has occurred. The December U.S. employment report provided a hint that the U.S. labor market, economy and the basic organization structure of the relationship between work and the individual has reached an ... READ MORE >
U.S. added 145,000 jobs in December as women now outnumber men in the workforce
Hiring in the economy closed out the year with a gain of 145,000 jobs in December, making for an overall increase of 2.1 million in 2019, the Labor Department reported on Friday. But most notable in the report was a milestone in the rise of women in the labor force. For the first time since 2010, women comprise the majority of workers, holding 50.04% of ... READ MORE >
Jobs report preview: Expect a cooler December
After a blowout jobs report in November, we expect things will have cooled off a bit when the December jobs figures are released on Friday. We expect a net gain of 145,000 in December hiring with downside risk linked to late-year seasonal adjustments and a slower pace of hiring. This slower pace is implied by the economic data within the ISM Service ... READ MORE >
RSM Brexit Stress Index remains subdued
Stress in the British financial markets has remained subdued over the four weeks since the general election. The RSM Brexit Stress Index, which measures financial and economic risk surrounding Britain’s impending departure from the European Union, started the new year at an insignificant 0.03 standard deviations above normal levels of implied stress, just ... READ MORE >
ISM Manufacturing report puts a dent in prospect of global re-acceleration
A narrative began to emerge among investors and policymakers in the last quarter of 2019 that a global economic re-acceleration was at hand, thanks to an expected rebound in manufacturing. But the December ISM Manufacturing report, released on Friday, coupled with the fallout from rising tensions in the Middle East, have put a significant dent in that ... READ MORE >
Increased shale production partially insulates American economy from Iran conflict
The reaction to the killing of Iranian Major General Qassim Suleimani, the commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps, across oil, energy and financial markets has been muted. For now, investors are focused on the supply component of the global oil equation. American shale oil production has changed significantly in just the past four years, ... READ MORE >