Expansionary fiscal policies in Germany and the U.S., as well as the prospect of greater government spending in Japan, have pushed long-dated yields higher in global fixed-income markets. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Threatened tariffs and market complacency
If one is wondering why investors have shrugged off tariff threats out of Washington, look no further than the United States’ five biggest trading partners excluding China. … READ MORE >
U.S. consumer price index creeps higher in June
Inflation has started a slow climb as signs of tariff-induced inflation are now evident within durable and nondurable imports. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Copper prices spike in response to tariff threats
Futures contracts for copper increased by more than 31% since the start of the year, including a 9.5% spike during the week ending July 11. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Demand-side inflation implies Fed still has work to do
When the consumer price index for June is released on Tuesday, we expect a top-line monthly increase of 0.3% and 0.2% on the core, which will translate to 2.6% year-over-year increase and 2.9% on the core. … READ MORE >
U.S. economic outlook: Stagflation lite to describe second half
We now expect growth to slow to 1.1% this year, inflation to rise above 3% and a 4.4% unemployment rate. … READ MORE >
Financial markets in 2025: Setting the stage for more volatility
Volatility in the first half of the year has the stage for more of the same as investors continue to wrestle with U.S. trade and fiscal policies. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Our year-end 10-year rate forecast
We expect the 10-year yield to remain in a range between 4% and 4.5% amid of elevated volatility and now expect it to finish the year near 4.35% with risk of a lower rate. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Supply and demand for gas at equilibrium
National average prices that were over $5 per gallon in early 2022 at the start of the Ukraine war dropped to $3.30 in May. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Extend and pretend is a feature, not a bug of trade policy
The extend-and-pretend deadlines on tariffs have turned into a never-ending moving of the goal posts that investors now discount. … READ MORE >