Over the past 15 years, the United States has not built enough houses to keep up with growing demand. The problem intensified during the pandemic as demand skyrocketed because of the shift to working from home and historically low mortgage rates encouraged this move. We estimate that at the end of ... READ MORE >
Midyear update: An economy on knife’s edge as inflation bites
Gradually, then suddenly: That is how Mike Campbell, the protagonist in Ernest Hemingway’s “The Sun Also Rises,” answered the question on how he went bankrupt. It’s also an apt way to think about how the United States goes into a recession. While there are always signs of financial stress and ... READ MORE >
Fuel oil prices reach a tipping point
American households are consuming less gasoline compared to this time last year as fuel costs continue their relentless rise. Now, with the traditional summer driving season underway, these costs have reached a tipping point, forcing many households to reduce their spending on necessities and ... READ MORE >
Changes in Fed policy and their impact on the economy
After more than a decade of disinflation and the threat of deflation, the Federal Reserve is now dealing with persistent inflation resulting from a pandemic-induced supply chain shock, a surge in consumer demand and yet another oil shock. This has resulted in an abrupt shift in policy to restore price ... READ MORE >
Fed announces largest rate hike in nearly three decades as it seeks to restore price stability
The Federal Reserve lifted its federal funds policy rate to a range between 1.5% and 1.75% on Wednesday as it moves to restore price stability over the medium term. We now expect the Fed to hike the policy rate by 50 basis points in July and September and then by 25 basis points at each successive ... READ MORE >
Updated FOMC call: Fed to hike policy rate by 75 basis points
The economist John Maynard Keynes once famously quipped, “When the facts change, I change my mind.” And so it goes ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee’s policy meeting this week. Based on movements inside the rate markets, quickly changing inflation expectations and a rattled investor class, we ... READ MORE >
Bond market update: Inflation’s toll on returns, investment and growth
Inflation is now the most significant factor in investment decisions. Until the Federal Reserve creates the conditions approximating price stability—defined as the core personal consumption expenditures deflator averaging 2% over a defined period—the economy will remain at risk. This will almost ... READ MORE >
FOMC preview: 50-basis-point hikes through September
We expect that the Federal Open Market Committee this week will lift the federal funds policy rate by 50 basis points to a range between 1.25% and 1.5%, which the market has already priced in and should be of little surprise to investors, the public or other policymakers. What is of more interest is ... READ MORE >
U.S. May CPI: Inflation continues to broaden out on higher gas and housing costs
Inflation continued to broaden out across the American economy in May, rising by 8.6% annually and underscoring the urgency among central bankers to restore price stability through an increase in the federal funds rate and a drawdown in its $8.9 trillion balance sheet. Six months into the Federal ... READ MORE >
Oil prices and price gouging: Deconstructing the price of gas
Rising energy prices have stimulated a fierce debate around inflation and what is behind the surge in gas prices. Are companies taking advantage of a stressful time in the economy and raising prices more than they need to? Accusations of price gouging and corporate greed now permeate the public ... READ MORE >