This is what a soft landing looks like. Through November this year, the American economy has produced nearly 2.6 million jobs as inflation has eased from 6.4% to 3.2%, all while the unemployment rate has remained below 4%. This is not a recession but instead is a sustained expansion amid labor ... READ MORE >
FOMC preview and the logic of Fed rate cuts in 2024
After nearly two years of raising the federal funds rate to restore price stability, the Federal Reserve is poised to all but declare that campaign to be over at its meeting next week. While the Federal Open Market Committee is likely to keep its policy statement largely unchanged, that statement ... READ MORE >
U.S. economic outlook: Expansion continues into 2024
Solid consumer spending driven by real personal income gains and sustained private investment will underscore a steady pace of growth at or near the 1.8% long-run rate in the United States in 2024. We expect that policy tailwinds from both the fiscal and monetary authorities will set the stage for ... READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: Slowdown even as jobs recover
Manufacturing continued to pull back in November, with the RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index remaining at 1.3 standard deviations below the level that would be considered normal. Although we think that the manufacturing sector has bottomed, any signs of an improvement have abated. A turn toward ... READ MORE >
U.S. October consumer price index: Further evidence of disinflation
If one was looking for evidence of a soft landing and a sustained economic expansion, look no further than the October consumer price index. Disinflation inside the October consumer price index caused by falling commodity, oil and gasoline prices resulted in no increase in inflation on the month ... READ MORE >
U.S. October jobs report: Moderation in hiring as wage gains outpace inflation
Hiring in the American economy moderated in October, pointing to a cooler pace of growth and inflation that is a much-needed elixir following the torrid pace of hiring and expansion of recent months. The economy added 150,000 jobs in October with the unemployment rate at 3.9%, the Bureau of Labor ... READ MORE >
FOMC decision: Extended pause as Fed waits for economy and inflation to ease further
The Federal Reserve maintained its policy rate in a range between 5.25% to 5.5% at its November policy meeting on Wednesday. Given the recent backup in Treasury yields, with the 10-year increasing by 124 basis points from 3.74% on July 19 to 4.98% on Oct. 19, the Fed intends to create policy space to ... READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: Financing costs and UAW strike take toll
Rising yields and the strike by the United Auto Workers contributed to a pullback in manufacturing in the United States into October, with the RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index slipping to 1.3 standard deviations below normal. Although it appears the end of the UAW strike is at hand pending votes ... READ MORE >
Construction employment: Kickstarting the reindustrialization of the American economy
Growth rates in construction employment strongly support the emerging consensus around an economic soft landing. Public policy put in place in recent years—with $300 billion going to public infrastructure and clean energy in addition to $53 billion allocated to jumpstart a semiconductor supply ... READ MORE >
Dollar ascendant? Why the dollar’s dominance will not fade.
Following a decade-long rise in the dollar’s value, declarations of its end as the world’s reserve currency are in vogue. With the days of zero interest rates giving way to higher rates, elevated inflation and rapidly changing rules of trade, is there anything to this talk? Our answer is ... READ MORE >