The Real Economy Blog

Joseph Brusuelas, Chief Economist, RSM US LLP

@JoeBrusuelas

Joe Brusuelas, “chief economist to the middle market,” is the preeminent voice championing issues and policies facing midsize companies in the United States and around the world. An award-winning economist, Brusuelas has more than 20 years’ experience analyzing U.S. monetary policy, labor markets, fiscal policy, international finance, economic indicators and the condition of the U.S. consumer.

A member of the Wall Street Journal’s forecasting panel, Brusuelas regularly briefs members of Congress and other senior officials regarding the impacts of federal policy on the middle market and the factors by which middle market executives make business decisions. He also frequently offers his insights on the U.S., Canadian and global economies in the financial media. In 2020, he was named one of the 100 most influential economists by Richtopia.

Before joining RSM in 2014, Brusuelas spent four years as a senior economist at Bloomberg L.P. and the Bloomberg Briefs newsletter group, where he co-founded the award-winning Bloomberg Economic Brief. Earlier in his career, he was a director at Moody's Analytics covering the U.S. and global economies for the Dismal Scientist website. He also served as chief economist at Merk Investments L.L.C. and chief U.S. economist at IDEAglobal.

CHART OF THE DAY: Unemployment insurance claims continue to fall

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First-time claims for unemployment insurance benefits continue to move in the right direction, falling during the week ending May 8 to 473,000, or a drop of 34,000 in seasonally adjusted terms, according to government data released Thursday. Over the past 13 weeks, initial claims have dropped in eight of those weeks and have increased in five weeks as ... READ MORE >

CHART OF THE DAY: A do-over year for the Consumer Price Index

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The inflation numbers for April released on Wednesday show the Consumer Price Index rising by 4.2% compared to April 2020, higher than the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 3.6%. The core CPI, which excludes the volatile food and energy components, rose 3.0%, up from the 1.6% year-over-year rate of increase in March. This marks the first time since ... READ MORE >

CHART OF THE DAY: Job openings rose in the first quarter

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The number of job openings and those who quit increased in the first three months of the year, pointing to a healthy demand for labor despite the subsequent disappointing employment report for April, according to government data released on Tuesday. There were more than 8.1 million U.S. job openings in March, a 20% increase over the number of openings ... READ MORE >

CHART OF THE DAY: Estimating unemployment during the pandemic

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Friday’s headline U3 unemployment rate of 6.1% for April is probably an undercount of the number of out-of-work people in the United States, not by design, but by the peculiar circumstances of the pandemic. An analysis of the labor report suggests that the unemployment rate, accounting for the effects of the pandemic, is substantially higher. By ... READ MORE >

Jobless claims: More good news from the labor market

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First-time jobless claims declined to 498,000 for the week of May 1 from an upwardly revised 590,000 during the previous week, as continuing claims remained elevated at 3.69 million, according to government data released Thursday. This data will not affect Friday’s employment report, which is now expected to show a gain of more than 1 million new jobs for ... READ MORE >

RSM UK Financial Conditions Index: Setting the stage for recovery

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The U.K.’s vaccination and shutdown programs are an apparent success. The percentage of the most vulnerable people, ages 50 and over, who have received at least one dose of the vaccine ranges from 87% in London to 98% in Scotland, and the results speak for themselves. Newly reported COVID-19 cases have dropped from 60,000 a day in January to 2,000 in ... READ MORE >