Joe Brusuelas, RSM US chief economist, discusses the effect of the coronavirus on the labor market and the economy: https://youtu.be/rgvCtk_kF9g ... READ MORE >
Pricing in the end of the current British business cycle
The coronavirus has caused economies across to globe to adopt self-distancing as the de-facto public health policy to mitigate the spread of the disease. Nothing highlights the dangers of the virus and its spread more than the announcement that British Prime Minister Boris Johnson had tested positive for the disease. But the policy of self-distancing ... READ MORE >
For states struggling with coronavirus, stimulus package is likely not enough
The increase in out-of-work Americans became a tsunami of household distress as municipalities and states took action to stop the spread of the coronavirus. All states – with the exception of Utah – reported significant numbers of workers filing for unemployment benefits as state and local authorities and businesses took the lead in slowing the virus by ... READ MORE >
New jobless claims surge, signaling hardship for working America
Initial claims for unemployment insurance soared in the past week, as the spread of the coronavirus multiplies and the first tranche of service-sector layoffs floods state unemployment offices. This week’s initial claims increased to 3.283 million from last week’s 282,000, suggesting a substantial drop in income and household spending in the coming weeks and ... READ MORE >
Why shutting down the economy makes the most sense
Just when social distancing gained broad adoption to stem the spread of the coronavirus, some are now urging that the American economy be restarted even before the virus has yet to be fully mitigated. This stands in contrast with stronger measures taken in Europe and England, which on Tuesday announced that its entire population should shelter in place ... READ MORE >
Expect initial jobless claims to surge this week as coronavirus spreads
As municipalities and states take action to stop the spread of the coronavirus -- and as businesses begin to shed labor – we expect the number of claims for unemployment benefits to mount. Because of the scope and scale of the human tragedy before us, we are not going to make a point forecast on the claims data this week. But it’s safe to say that, based ... READ MORE >
Fed takes robust action to backstop the economy and financial markets
The Federal Reserve moved aggressively on Monday to mitigate what is going to be a severe disruption in the American economy by committing to an open-ended quantitative easing program and the construction of the Main Street Business Lending Program to support small and medium-sized firms. That disruption will take the form of a depression-like set of ... READ MORE >
Saving small and medium-size business: temporary lending facility needed now
This week U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told a group of Republican senators they need to act to prevent an increase in the unemployment rate to 20%. While some would say that is political hyperbole, it is not. Policymakers, investors and company managers will observe a jump in first-time jobless claims next week likely to be in the millions and an ... READ MORE >
Just how deep is the supply shock? West Coast ports tell the story.
West Coast port activity implies that the supply shock affecting the domestic economy is broad and deep. This strongly suggests a sharp decline in consumption and industrial activity as firms struggle to acquire supplies to make final goods and consumers pull back because of a lack of finished goods on the shelves. Without a doubt, this also ... READ MORE >
Jump in initial jobless claims signals an impending recession
Weekly claims for unemployment benefits jumped to 281,000 for the week ending March 14, likely the first sign of the catastrophic disruption to normal life and an impending economic recession caused by the spread of the coronavirus. The only real question now is if the damage caused by the shocks cascading throughout the economy will surpass the cyclical ... READ MORE >