The condition of small and medium-size firms implies a potential inflection point in the nascent economic rebound following the near shutdown of the economy last spring. Without further reform and support of the signature Paycheck Protection Program (PPP)—which provided a vital lifeline to those firms during the worst of the pandemic—there will be an increase in bankruptcies, followed by another round of job losses, this time tilted toward the permanent elimination of jobs that support the bulk of the American middle and working classes. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims fall below 1 million
For the first time in five months, first-time jobless claims fell below one million to 963,000 for the week ending Aug. 8, while continuing claims eased to 15.5 million, Labor Department data shows. … READ MORE >
The pandemic, health care access and the economy
The outbreak of the novel coronavirus has highlighted the massive inequality of access that continues to plague the richest country in the world. … READ MORE >
U.S. employment report: Recall of workers slows in July
The recall of workers to their jobs slowed in July as evidence of a much greater problem in the domestic labor force mounts. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims: Potential inflection point
Initial jobless claims for the month of July point to a potential inflection point in the American labor market. July’s data perfectly captured the flattening out of consumer demand and slowing of overall growth in the economy. … READ MORE >
US July employment report preview: Stagnation
We anticipate that there will be no increase in total employment for July following two strong months of worker recalls when the U.S. employment data is released on Friday. … READ MORE >
In anticipation of speedbumps (or roadblocks) to recovery
Even if a vaccine is developed, there is a question that looms over the economy and the chance for a full recovery: What if people refuse to take it? … READ MORE >
US June personal income and spending: Difficult days for the American household
The American household finds itself under extreme duress as loss of income and jobs caused by the pandemic is on vivid display inside the June U.S. Personal Income and Spending Report. Despite a robust increase in spending, based on income dynamics that are in play during the pandemic, it is quite clear that this is not sustainable and represents the zenith in the release of pent up demand following the reopening of the economy in May. … READ MORE >
Three states report significant increases in initial jobless claims
The grim news from the national increase in initial jobless claims, which are adjusted for seasonal effects, was mitigated somewhat by the state-by-state raw counting of first-time filings for unemployment benefits. … READ MORE >
US gross domestic product: Actual vs. potential output
The current Bloomberg consensus on third quarter growth in gross domestic product is 18% (RSM’s forecast is 14.2%), and that will likely be brought down noticeably in coming days. … READ MORE >









