U.S. financial conditions have deteriorated in recent days as investors have pulled back on riskier assets, causing the S&P 500 to shed 4.3%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average to drop 3.32% and the NASDAQ to fall 6.1% over the past three trading sessions. As these conditions have eased, the risk to the economy has grown. … READ MORE >
U.S. financial conditions tightening due to equities rout
U.S. financial conditions have tightened in recent days as investors have pulled back on riskier assets, a decline that if it continues implies a risk to the nascent U.S. economic rebound. … READ MORE >
August U.S. employment report: Strong hiring continues for fourth month
The return of workers to their jobs continued at a strong pace in August, with 1.371 million jobs added, including 238,000 temporary census workers. … READ MORE >
Methodological changes to jobless claims data are behind their slower pace
First-time jobless claims declined to a seasonally adjusted rate of 881,000 for the week ending Aug. 29, with non-seasonally adjusted claims falling to 833,000 as the Department of Labor introduced a new way to estimate the pace of firings in the domestic labor market. … READ MORE >
Major policy shift at the Federal Reserve: average inflation targeting
Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell on Wednesday announced a significant shift in the central bank policy regime that moves away from its long held Phillips Curve-based trade-off between employment and inflation. This will provide the Federal Reserve more room for accommodation in an era of zero interest rate policy and position the central bank to support maximum sustainable employment without running the risk of higher inflation expectations and actual inflation. … READ MORE >
Small and medium size firms in crisis: A message from the real economy
The condition of small and medium-size firms implies a potential inflection point in the nascent economic rebound following the near shutdown of the economy last spring. Without further reform and support of the signature Paycheck Protection Program (PPP)—which provided a vital lifeline to those firms during the worst of the pandemic—there will be an increase in bankruptcies, followed by another round of job losses, this time tilted toward the permanent elimination of jobs that support the bulk of the American middle and working classes. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims fall below 1 million
For the first time in five months, first-time jobless claims fell below one million to 963,000 for the week ending Aug. 8, while continuing claims eased to 15.5 million, Labor Department data shows. … READ MORE >
The pandemic, health care access and the economy
The outbreak of the novel coronavirus has highlighted the massive inequality of access that continues to plague the richest country in the world. … READ MORE >
U.S. employment report: Recall of workers slows in July
The recall of workers to their jobs slowed in July as evidence of a much greater problem in the domestic labor force mounts. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims: Potential inflection point
Initial jobless claims for the month of July point to a potential inflection point in the American labor market. July’s data perfectly captured the flattening out of consumer demand and slowing of overall growth in the economy. … READ MORE >