If there were any remaining doubts that the pandemic was real or that it would suddenly disappear into the warm summer air, the recent headlines should have dispelled them. … READ MORE >
Managing expectations of dollar strength during and after the pandemic
The greenback has increased 3.89% this year using the Fed’s broad trade-weighted index as our benchmark. Because of growing risks around the domestic management of the pandemic and increasing uncertainty around U.S. fiscal policy, we think that strength is at risk. … READ MORE >
FOMC preview: Coming attractions at the Fed
The Federal Reserve’s rate decisions on July 29 will likely be remembered not for what is stated inside the policy communique. Rather, it will be long noted by what Fed Chairman Jerome Powell says at his news conference afterward regarding policy change. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims, by state: Texas passes 3 million
Texas became the fifth state to have processed 3 million initial filings for unemployment benefits since the onset of the novel coronavirus and the shutdown of local economies on March 7. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims: Slowing economy pushes claims higher
A series of alternative and near real-time data show that the economy began to slow on or around June 24. First-time jobless claims, which increased by 1.416 million for the week ending July 18, affirm the evolution of that data and point to risks around a slower pace of workers being recalled to their pre-pandemic jobs. … READ MORE >
Policy cliffs approaching as economy slows
While we anticipate that Congress will approve a fifth round of fiscal aid to support the economy as the pandemic intensifies, it is now clear that this aid will not be put in place in time to prevent an “air pocket” in the economy later this summer. … READ MORE >
No vaccine, no recovery: The long road back
It is becoming quite clear that absent an accessible and widely distributed vaccine, that there will be no complete economic recovery. What originally was thought to be a 15 week problem has quickly evolved into something that looks more like a 15-month challenge. The premature reopening of the U.S. economy has resulted in an intensification of the pandemic, which is now causing growth in the economy to slow. The spread of the disease has resulted in a rollback of normal social and economic activity that poses significant risk to already subdued utilization of the full capacity to produce around the economy. Thus, any discussion of a full reopening and recovery of the domestic economy must be discussed within the context of a viable timetable that includes a vaccine. … READ MORE >
A national pandemic shifts to the South and Southwest
The intensified spread of the coronavirus in states outside the major metropolitan areas that were hardest hit early on poses significant risk to growth in the second half of 2020. … READ MORE >
Jobless claims, state by state: 19 show significant increases
The spread of the coronavirus across the South and Southwest and into the Plains became apparent in states with statistically significant increases in initial jobless claims during the week ending July 11. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims: 17 straight weeks above 1 million
Initial jobless claims remain stubbornly elevated, which implies persistent weakness in the domestic labor market as the economy absorbs further intensification of the coronavirus pandemic. … READ MORE >