A cumulative 33.5 million claims of newly unemployed people have been processed by the state agencies in the seven weeks since the economies of most states were shut down to prevent the spread of the coronavirus. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims continue to rise to extreme levels
The increase of 3.2 million in jobless claims for the week ending May 2 brings the cumulative total to 33.5 million during the past seven weeks. … READ MORE >
U.S. April employment report preview: A magnitude complete in itself
When the jobs report is released on Friday, we expect that there will be roughly 22 million jobs lost and that the unemployment rate will increase to 17%, both of which will understate the labor dynamics at play across the economy. … READ MORE >
ISM service sector index: More pain ahead
The Institute of Supply Management’s April report on the service sector, like its manufacturing cousin, implies that the domestic economy has not yet troughed. The ISM said on Tuesday that the forward-looking new orders and business activity components of its Non-Manufacturing Index declined to 32.9 and 26, well below the 41.8 top line. … READ MORE >
ISM Manufacturing Index points to more damage ahead
The top-line ISM Manufacturing Index declined to 41.5 from 49.1, confirming that the economy sank into recession in March. The forward-looking new orders component declined to 27.1 from 42.2 and the employment sub-index collapsed to 27.5 from 43.8. … READ MORE >
New data on spread of coronavirus shows need for caution on relaxing restrictions
After a two-week period of fewer cases of the coronavirus, Americans are moving gingerly toward a resumption of normal social and professional activity. The next few weeks will be instructive as to the logic of reopening the economy, new infections and rising deaths. … READ MORE >
Federal Reserve expands Main Street Lending Program: Changing market and financial structure for middle market firms
The Federal Reserve on Thursday updated the terms of its soon-to-be-launched Main Street Lending Program targeted at middle market companies, expanding eligibility for lending to a broader group. The Fed said businesses with annual revenues of up to $5 billion and staff of up to 15,000 employees may be eligible, up from a prior $2.5 billion in revenue, and 10,000 employees, respectively. The minimum loan size has been dropped to $500,000 from $1 million. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims, state by state: Washington, Oregon, Nevada and Georgia report significant increases
While most states showed significant decreases in claims, four states — Washington, Oregon, Nevada and Georgia – reported significant increases. Jobless claims in Iowa also increased, which matches up with the news of the disease spreading through employees at meatpacking plants. … READ MORE >
American Badlands: 30 million unemployed in six weeks
In just over six weeks, 30.2 million Americans have joined the ranks of the unemployed, which implies a near real-time unemployment rate of 23.8%. For the week ending April 25, approximately 3.83 million individuals filed for first-time unemployment claims. … READ MORE >
FOMC meeting: Prelude to policy innovation ahead
In our estimation, the Fed is caught in the interstitial between its current rate, forward guidance polices and what we think will be a policy of yield curve control that will need to be put in place in 2021. … READ MORE >