The carnage in the American labor market continued unabated for the week ending April 4 as first-time jobless claims soared to 6.6 million, which implies a real-time U.S. unemployment rate of 14.6% at a minimum. … READ MORE >
Federal Reserve backstops Paycheck Protection Program
The Federal Reserve today put forward another in a series of lending facilities intended to fortify the economy as it absorbs three large shocks that are cascading across the U.S. economic landscape. … READ MORE >
RSM introduces coronavirus projection model
This forward-looking model we think will capture curve dynamics in near real time and provide an informative and useful metric around which to begin planning on a return to full production and provision of services. … READ MORE >
U.S. economy shed 701,000 jobs in March as shutdown takes hold
Following 113 straight months of job gains, the U.S. economy shed 701,000 jobs in March, providing a glimpse of things to come. The internal dynamics inside the report are a sober, clear-eyed precursor to what is going to be the largest bloodletting in the labor market since the 1929-1933 period of the Great Depression. … READ MORE >
The state-by-state toll of the coronavirus shutdown on the labor market
The widespread layoffs of American workers worsened in the third week of the coronavirus shutdown, with all states (with the exception of the Virgin Islands) now having reported a significant increase in initial jobless claims at some point during the three-week period. … READ MORE >
Tectonic shift in initial jobless claims implies 10.1% unemployment rate
The tectonic shifts in the American labor market continued during the week ending March 28 as first-time jobless claims increased by 6.64 million. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims preview: Expect another big increase
We expect that for the week ending March 28, 2020, initial jobless claims will show an increase of 3.1 million when the figures are announced on Thursday. This would imply a two-week total of 6.4 million. … READ MORE >
The swift and significant monetary and fiscal policy responses to the coronavirus
March 2020 has been a month for the ages – one that fiscal and monetary policymakers will never forget. Congress put forward roughly $2.2 trillion, or equal to 11.4% of gross domestic product, in fiscal aid to address current and coming economic difficulties around the country. … READ MORE >
RSM Manufacturing Outlook Index gives another sign of recession
The RSM Manufacturing Outlook Index took a nosedive in March, to levels ordinarily reserved for recessions. The index reversed the gains of the first two months of the year and dropped two standard deviations below levels associated with normal manufacturing conditions. … READ MORE >
RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas unpacks unemployment amid pandemic
Joe Brusuelas, chief economist of RSM US, sees unemployment increasing to 5.75% in the April report and eventually rising to as high as 10.5% in midsummer. … READ MORE >









