Joe Brusuelas, chief economist of RSM US, sees unemployment increasing to 5.75% in the April report and eventually rising to as high as 10.5% in midsummer. … READ MORE >
Pricing in the end of the current British business cycle
The RSM U.K. Financial Conditions Index — which measures the degree of financial accommodation built into British financial asset prices – plummeted from normal conditions just four weeks ago to 3.9 standard deviations below normal levels of implied market risk. … READ MORE >
For states struggling with coronavirus, stimulus package is likely not enough
All states – with the exception of Utah – reported significant numbers of workers filing for unemployment benefits as state and local authorities and businesses took the lead in slowing the virus by shutting down the normal flow of interaction. … READ MORE >
New jobless claims surge, signaling hardship for working America
This week’s initial claims increased to 3.283 million from last week’s 282,000, suggesting a substantial drop in income and household spending in the coming weeks and months, and the increased likelihood of the economy falling into recession. … READ MORE >
Why shutting down the economy makes the most sense
In our estimation, sending the public back to work at this time would be premature, put far more individuals at risk and run the risk of another series of economic shutdowns should there be a second or third wave this fall and next winter. … READ MORE >
Expect initial jobless claims to surge this week as coronavirus spreads
When the new figures for initial jobless claims are announced this week, they will jump above the cyclical high of 665,000 set during the recovery from the Great Recession and the all-time high of 695,000 set in October 1982. … READ MORE >
Fed takes robust action to backstop the economy and financial markets
The Federal Reserve moved aggressively on Monday to mitigate what is going to be a severe disruption in the American economy by committing to an open-ended quantitative easing program and the construction of the Main Street Business Lending Program to support small and medium-sized firms. … READ MORE >
Saving small and medium-size business: temporary lending facility needed now
If the fiscal and monetary authority do not act with temporary lending relief for small and midsize companies, soon a disaster will encompass Main Street businesses through no fault of their own—this disaster is entirely preventable. … READ MORE >
Just how deep is the supply shock? West Coast ports tell the story.
West Coast port activity implies that the supply shock affecting the domestic economy is broad and deep. This strongly suggests a sharp decline in consumption and industrial activity as firms struggle to acquire supplies to make final goods and consumers pull back because of a lack of finished goods on the shelves. … READ MORE >
Jump in initial jobless claims signals an impending recession
The data is likely the first sign of the catastrophic disruption to normal life and an impending economic recession caused by the spread of the coronavirus. … READ MORE >









