Stress in the British financial markets plummeted as voters handed the Conservatives and Prime Minister Boris Johnson a clear victory on Thursday, signaling years of gridlock over Brexit … READ MORE >
Fed leaves rates unchanged and points to shift on inflation target
The Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday said it had retained its accommodative policy stance by keeping the federal funds rate in a range between 1.5% and 1.75%. … READ MORE >
Expect the Fed to stick to the script
We expect the Federal Reserve will keep its policy rate in a range between 1.50% and 1.75% at the December FOMC meeting. The major interest of investors and policymakers will naturally be the movement in the dot plot, which we expect to move into alignment with the current policy rate, with 2020 to the midpoint of the current target range near 1.62%. … READ MORE >
RSM Brexit Stress Index eases as general election draws closer
The RSM Brexit Stress Index closed the week at 0.29 standard deviations above normal levels of implied stress. It marked the lowest level of risk in what seems like an eternity since former Prime Minister Theresa May stepped down and current PM Boris Johnson moved in. … READ MORE >
November employment: a boomer of a jobs report
Even after adjusting for striking GM workers returning to the workforce, labor market dynamics remain robust as the private sector generated 254,000 new jobs in November, fueled by a gain of 206,000 private service sector jobs. Total jobs gains in the month were 266,000; the unemployment rate was 3.5%, a 50-year low. … READ MORE >
Expect a solid jobs report on Friday, despite manufacturing’s weakness
The November nonfarm payrolls report will be released Friday, and despite early reports of softness in manufacturing, we still expect a net increase in total employment of 165,000 jobs and the unemployment rate to hold at 3.6%, thanks to a healthier service sector. … READ MORE >
RSM Brexit Stress Index continues to ease
Stress in the British financial markets has been easing in the three weeks since the election announcement, continuing a holding pattern of sorts until there is more clarity on the political and economic fronts. … READ MORE >
Early signals show continued decline for the leading indicator
Analysts are forecasting that Thursday’s release of the Conference Board’s leading economic indicator of U.S. growth will show a 0.2% decline for October, the third month in a row of negative growth. … READ MORE >
Looking to 2020: Consumer is king amid slowing growth
The American economy will continue to slow toward a growth rate of 1.5% in 2020, below its long-term average of 1.8%, as sturdy consumer spending compensates for financial volatility and erratic trade policy. That consumption, though, increasingly depends on rising asset prices that help boost confidence, and solid job growth. … READ MORE >
U.S. industrial production falls a sharp 0.8% in October
While auto production will undoubtedly rebound in November, the problems at Boeing surrounding the 737 Max and the uncertainty tax imposed on firms caused by the trade conflict with China have knocked the air out of domestic industrial production. … READ MORE >