First-time jobless claims remained remarkably stable at 213,000 as continuing claims increased to 1.9 million for the week ending Nov. 23. … READ MORE >
Trump tariff losers index: Manufacturing, metals, petroleum and many more
The Trump Tariff Losers Index captured the supply chain stress during the pandemic era and is poised to turn upward should the threats of new tariffs become policy action. … READ MORE >
China’s economic challenge: Elevated external debt and its dirty float
A Chinese economy caught in a debt and deleveraging trap is likely to face the additional strain of a sharp increase in tariffs on goods sold into the U.S. … READ MORE >
Capital flows into the U.S. to challenge global economy
The dollar is set to soar in the next year amid an expansionary fiscal policy and a new tariff regime, leading to more capital inflows to the United States. … READ MORE >
As European economy deteriorates, ECB needs to be more aggressive
The European Central Bank is clearly going to need to get far more aggressive in its easing campaign as the continental economy slips back into pull of recession’s gravity. … READ MORE >
The U.S. economic year ahead: Regime change, growth and rising interest rates
The American economy continues to undergo a regime change that will bring less volatility and greater resilience to shocks. … READ MORE >
Hurricanes and sticky service and housing prices propped up inflation in October
One-time special factors and ongoing sticky shelter and service prices combined to cause an increase of 2.6% in the consumer price index in October. … READ MORE >
To contend with higher tariffs, businesses need to act now
Higher tariffs are likely over the next few years. In our estimation, firms do not have the luxury to wait and see how the policy changes turn out. … READ MORE >
Fed cuts rate by a quarter point ahead of a possible pause
Slowing inflation and strong productivity gains imply that the Fed has ample room to keep cutting rates next year. … READ MORE >
The Trump restoration and the U.S. economy
The Trump restoration was resonating across financial markets on Wednesday with the prospect that his second administration will almost certainly bolster economic conditions should a round of tax cuts occur next year. … READ MORE >