Since the start of the most recent market turmoil, investors have pushed U.S. five-year credit default swaps roughly 20 basis points higher. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Private sector deleveraging risk amid trade conflict
One should not discount the possibility of further financial volatility because of the leverage of non-financial bank intermediaries. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Currency politics, capital flows and U.S.-Japanese relations
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato are set to start a dialogue on currency rates when they meet this week in Washington. Their meeting should capture in vivid fashion the lack of clarity in U.S. trade policy at a time when Japanese decision makers are … … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Reservation wages decline as worker discontent grows
The reservation wage, or the lowest wage rate at which a worker will accept a particular job offer, has declined this year to $74,135 from $82,236 last year, according to the New York Fed. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: A word about central bank independence
Cutting the policy rate into conditions best described as stagflation would only intensify that movement, driving capital flows into euros, yen and francs while driving interest rates higher. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Term premium rising as Fed independence at risk
Trade shock has turned into financial shock in the form of a rising term premium as investors unwind risk and diversify away from dollar-denominated assets. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Inventories increase again in February as tariffs loom
Businesses continued to brace for the imposition of tariffs, with total inventories increasing by 0.2% in February after rising by 0.6% in January. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Real income expectations plummet
March retail sales will see a pop of greater than 1% when the Census Bureau releases the data on Thursday as households pull forward consumption in advance of higher tariffs. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Housing units under construction easing
Cost curves associated with housing construction are rising, margins are thinning and it would logically follow that construction unemployment will increase later this year. … READ MORE >
Requiem for the dollar?
The United States’ attempt to rebalance the global economy to better serve its interests has resulted in the flight of capital out of the country, harming American businesses and consumers. … READ MORE >