The RSM Brexit Stress Index closed at 0.42 on Friday, moderating from 0.60 at the end of last week, as Prime Minister Theresa May officially exits her post at Tory leader. … READ MORE >
Jobs report clunker puts June rate cut on the table
An interest rate cut at the June 19 Federal Reserve meeting is now on the table as firms pulled back significantly on hiring in May. The weak hiring report is likely due to the uncertainty tax linked to trade policy out of the White House that has been placed on the economy. … READ MORE >
Recession watch: What the bond market is saying about prospects for growth
The bond market is clearly signaling that absent a cessation of trade hostilities or a shift in monetary policy, we are now late in the business cycle. … READ MORE >
FOMC policy and the path of interest rates: Fed funds rate to decline by 50 basis points in 2019
Based on recent economic data and policy risk around deteriorating global trade conditions, we now expect the Federal Reserve to reduce the policy rate to a range of 1.75 to 2 percent from 2.25 to 2.5 percent by the end of 2019. … READ MORE >
U.S. employment report preview: strong top line, focus on manufacturing employment
The focus of the May employment report will likely provide a contrast between underlying strength in the top line, which we expect to show a gain of 175,000 jobs in the month and the slowing of hiring in the manufacturing sector, which has produced a net gain of only 12,000 jobs over the past three months. … READ MORE >
RSM Brexit Stress Index rises amid political uncertainty
The RSM Brexit Stress Index moved higher again this week, closing at 0.60 from 0.53 last Friday, as the markets digest the resignation of Prime Minister Theresa May, effective June 7. … READ MORE >
RSM Brexit Stress Index closes week up, as May resigns PM post
The RSM Brexit Stress Index moved higher again in the week, as Prime Minister Theresa May of the Conservative Party resigned her post following multiple failed attempts to solidify a plan for Britain’s departure from the European Union. … READ MORE >
The RSM Brexit Stress Index–a waiting game
The RSM Brexit Stress Index finished the week at 0.36, virtually unchanged from last week’s close. Although the index remains within a range of normality in terms of asset price movement and volatility, there were nevertheless signs of increased stress in the majority of markets. … READ MORE >
What constitutes a trade war? You’re looking at it
While we have remained cautious, now there is no mistake: A trade spat initiated by the United States last year with the imposition of tariffs on steel and aluminum imports has clearly escalated into a full-blown trade war. … READ MORE >
A pivot point for agriculture : Can agritech save farming?
The U.S. agriculture sector has been hard hit in recent years due to changing global demand and the onset of the Trump administration’s trade conflicts. Growth of real net farm income in 2019 dollars has been negative in nine of the past 19 years. Here’s a look at some of the actions we could take to reverse these trends. … READ MORE >









