The Federal Reserve will keep its policy rate unchanged at its May 1 meeting this week. The committee will also likely update its statement to reflect recent economic data releases and reiterate a focus on inflation that continues to run below the central bank’s 2 percent target. … READ MORE >
RSM Brexit Stress Index shows slightly more pressure ahead of elections
The RSM Brexit Stress Index finished the week at -0.01 from -0.16 a week earlier, showing a slight increase in stress as the markets corrected after a holiday lull. … READ MORE >
U.S. Q1 ’19 GDP: Strong topline 3.2 percent growth, real private demand at 1.3 percent
U.S. economic output for the first three months of 2019 expanded at a strong 3.2 percent pace, despite a slowdown in household consumption to 1.2 percent, headwinds from the external sector, a lengthy government shutdown and a rough winter. … READ MORE >
Wholesale gasoline prices point to 8% rise in retail costs in time for summer holidays
U.S. consumers are likely to feel a modest jolt in commuting costs, as wholesale gasoline futures now point to an 8 percent rise in retail gasoline prices in coming days, with risk of a much more pronounced increase to follow.The surge is due to non-market derived pricing action caused by a recent policy shift from Washington on waivers around imports of Iranian oil. … READ MORE >
First quarter GDP will show moderate growth, but with an asterisk
U.S. first quarter gross domestic product likely expanded 2.6 percent, a generous pace of growth given significant headwinds from a slowing global economy, the lengthy government shutdown and a rough winter. But put an asterisk next to it, as the first-quarter expansion was driven by unsustainable inventory accumulation, a temporary … … READ MORE >
RSM offers a new index to measure Canadian financial conditions
RSM Canada has developed a quarterly index of Canadian financial conditions, using marketassessments of risk and accommodation as a proxy for lending and borrowing attitudes. … READ MORE >
RSM Brexit Stress Index eases ahead of holiday weekend
The RSM Brexit Stress Index finished lower for the week at -0.16 from -0.09 a week earlier, following a recent extension for Britain’s imminent departure from the European Union. … READ MORE >
U.S. trade balance narrows, bolstering Q1 ’19 GDP expectations
The U.S. trade deficit narrowed to $49.3 billion in February from $51.1 billion in January, impacted by one-time factors in the aerospace and agriculture industries.The deficit—which represents an eight-month low—boosted our first-quarter GDP estimate by 0.4 percent to 1.9 percent. … READ MORE >
RSM Brexit Stress Index: Decline implies conditions support improved UK economic growth
The RSM Brexit Stress Index declined to -0.08 from 0.41 the prior week due to the extension to Oct. 31 of the UK’s potential exit from the European Union. The index has made a two-standard-deviation move since early December, 2018; the trend implies broader financial conditions supportive of growth sorely needed in the UK economy, which has been stuck near a one-percent growth trend. … READ MORE >
Policy options to boost economy may be limited in a post-Brexit world (updated)
It remains to be seen whether Britain’s impending departure from the European Union will be “hard” or “soft.” Either way, it is time to start thinking about the post-Brexit economic environment. … READ MORE >