We expect the Federal Reserve to cut its policy rate by 25 basis points at its meeting on Thursday to a range between 4.5% and 4.75%. … READ MORE >
Distortions in the October U.S. jobs report mask underlying strength
We would urge investors, firm managers and policymakers not to overinterpret the temporary factors driving the top-line decline and to expect a similar dynamic in the November jobs estimate. … READ MORE >
Strong gains in Income and spending boost economic growth in September
American households are well positioned to keep spending at a 3% to 3.5% pace as inflation moves back to 2% and real wages continue to increase. … READ MORE >
American economic outperformance continues as GDP expands by 2.8%
The U.S. economy continues to show strength, with full employment, price stability and strong productivity gains. … READ MORE >
Financial conditions improve in Canada and U.S., setting stage for growth
Financial conditions continue to improve both in Canada as well as the United States, signaling stability in markets and setting the groundwork for economic growth. … READ MORE >
A nascent dollar bloc: Re-globalization amid U.S.-Chinese tensions
We see a nascent dollar trading bloc forming out of need to protect essential industries. … READ MORE >
October jobs report will be distorted by hurricane and strike
We expect a top-line gain in total employment of roughly 120,000 jobs, which is approximately 80,000 below what our model would otherwise imply. … READ MORE >
American outperformance in the global economy
The U.S. economy is outperforming in growth and employment, and in controlling inflation, without causing the economy to fall into an extended period of slow growth. It’s a remarkable policy achievement. … READ MORE >
U.S. CPI: Further evidence of disinflation supports another rate cut
We expect the Fed to keep its eyes on preserving full employment amid general price stability, which points to a further reduction in interest rates throughout the remainder of the year … READ MORE >
When money has a price: How the higher cost of capital is affecting America’s real economy
Business models built around zero interest rates—and services firms with exposure to those businesses—are adapting to the return of a positive term premium in the price of money. … READ MORE >