Sustained demand for labor in the American economy was on vivid display on Friday as the Labor Department reported that 275,000 jobs were created in February. … READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: Soft sentiment in an uneven recovery
The slowdown in manufacturing continued into February, but at a slower pace, according to surveys conducted by regional Federal Reserve banks. … READ MORE >
How real is the wealth effect in a bull market?
Using a back-of-the-envelope calculation, we estimate that the sharp rebound in equities last year contributed to an increase of roughly $900 billion in households’ stock wealth, or $288 billion in consumer spending. … READ MORE >
What would Keynes do? Russian assets and funding the war in Ukraine
One way to finance the Ukraine war: Use Russia’s foreign exchange reserves as collateral to raise private sector debt. John Maynard Keynes just might have approved. … READ MORE >
Natural gas and the move toward energy self-sufficiency
Natural gas accounts for roughly 30% of the energy used domestically, and the U.S. is now the largest global exporter of LNG. … READ MORE >
Solow Residual: Total factor productivity and the U.S. economy
A recent study by the San Francisco Federal Reserve found that total factor productivity grew by a robust 4.99% on the most recent quarter after adjusting for factors such as labor, capital, utilization and worked hours. … READ MORE >
Geopolitical tensions and risks to the inflation outlook
Just as inflation appeared to be coming under control in recent months, rising tensions in the Middle East have shaken this view and now represent the major risk to our economic and inflation outlooks. … READ MORE >
Inflation expectations remain remarkably well anchored
The Federal Reserve’s five-year inflation forward breakeven rate—a closely watched measure of inflation expectations—stands at 2.3%, below the cyclical peak of 2.67% posted on April 19, 2022. … READ MORE >
CPI: Fed to remain patient as real wages rise 1.4%
January’s data shows that inflation is continuing to ease even as wages increase on an inflation-adjusted basis—an undeniably positive development. … READ MORE >
Revising our 2024 inflation outlook: Moving back to a 2% target
We expect the Fed to begin cutting rates in June, and that the central bank will reduce its policy rate four times this year, by 25 basis points each. … READ MORE >