Global growth in 2025 will expand at a modest 2.5% pace as the sluggish recovery from the pandemic continues, according to our forecast. … READ MORE >
Fed cuts rates as it signals a prudent pause to assess policy uncertainty
The Federal Reserve reduced its policy rate by 25 basis points to a range between 4.25% and 4.5% at its meeting on Wednesday. … READ MORE >
Morning market minute: What the Treasury yield curve is saying about the economy
Normally, yields would be expected to fall at a time when the Fed is cutting rates. But uncertainty over the economy and the probability of inflation’s decline stalling at 2.6% to 2.8% have helped push up yields. … READ MORE >
Inflation risk premium suggests higher yields ahead
Should the inflation risk premium continue to rise, investors should anticipate that longer-term Treasury yields will move higher in tandem. … READ MORE >
Morning market minute: The Fed’s terminal rate estimate needs to be lifted
We expect that the Federal Reserve will lift its estimate of the terminal rate to 3% this week. … READ MORE >
FOMC preview: A rate cut, followed by a prudent pause
We expect the Federal Reserve to reduce its policy rate by 25 basis points to a range between 4.25% and 4.5% at the Federal Open Market Committee’s meeting on Dec. 18. … READ MORE >
Morning market minute: Firms to pull forward durable goods orders to avoid tariffs
Firms appear to be acting rationally to avoid rising import taxes in the new year. … READ MORE >
Hiring rebounded in November following weather-distorted October report
After the distortions In October’s jobs report caused by two hurricanes, the American labor market bounced back in November with the creation of 227,000 jobs. … READ MORE >
Morning market minute: Will wage growth moderate?
A look at U.S. wage growth ahead of the November U.S. jobs report to be released today should translate to a gain of 3.9% on a year-ago basis. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims climb amid holiday volatility
First-time claims for unemployment benefits increased to 224,000 Last week, in line with the 13-week moving average of 226,000. … READ MORE >