Expect the economy to settle into its long-term growth rate of around 1.8% next year. Read our forecasts for growth, inflation, unemployment, the dollar, interest rates and fiscal policy. … READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: Slowdown even as jobs recover
Even with the overall pullback in manufacturing activity, employment in the sector has rebounded. After decades of decline, there are now as many goods-producing jobs in the American economy as in 2008. … READ MORE >
U.S. October consumer price index: Further evidence of disinflation
The October CPI report strongly implies a continuation of the current economic expansion and a soft landing for the American economy. … READ MORE >
U.S. October jobs report: Moderation in hiring as wage gains outpace inflation
The economy added 150,000 jobs in October with the unemployment rate at 3.9%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday. … READ MORE >
FOMC decision: Extended pause as Fed waits for economy and inflation to ease further
The Federal Reserve maintained its policy rate in a range between 5.25% to 5.5% at its November policy meeting on Wednesday. Given the recent backup in Treasury yields, with the 10-year increasing by 124 basis points from 3.74% on July 19 to 4.98% on Oct. 19, the Fed intends to … … READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: Financing costs and UAW strike take toll
Rising yields as well as the UAW strike contributed to a pullback in manufacturing in the United States into October, with the RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index slipping to 1.3 standard deviations below normal. … READ MORE >
Construction employment: Kickstarting the reindustrialization of the American economy
Public policy put in place in recent years points toward a tailwind for both construction employment and the manufacturing sector. … READ MORE >
Dollar ascendant? Why the dollar’s dominance will not fade.
The idea that the global economy can be organized around another currency seems out of place given the dollar’s ascendancy over the past 10 years during a period of uncertainty. … READ MORE >
Resilient U.S. economy grows 4.9% in third quarter
A resilient American economy continued to defy expectations by growing at a 4.9% pace in the third quarter because of one-time factors inside the consumption channel and because of sustained gains in U.S. labor dynamics and modest real income gains. … READ MORE >
Consumer price index: Volatility in energy and gas makes price stability elusive
Gains toward price stability remain elusive as the 1.5% increase in overall energy costs and stubborn housing inflation were the major drivers of inflation over the past month. … READ MORE >