Inflation continued to moderate in July as both topline and core inflation increased 0.2% while the former increased 2.9% from one year ago and the latter advanced 3.2%. The internals of the report tend to suggest that there will be further relief in the offing as housing and service inflation has plenty of room to ease further in the second half of the year. … READ MORE >
Notes on a classic market panic: Unwinding of the yen-based carry trade
The case for a supersized 50 basis-point reduction at its next meeting on Sept. 18 has been bolstered by the recent market turmoil. … READ MORE >
Job creation slows in July as unemployment increases to 4.3%
U.S. job growth slowed in July as 114,000 jobs were added and the unemployment rate increased to 4.3%. … READ MORE >
Fed holds rates steady as it sets up for September cut
We expect that the FOMC will reduce the policy rate by 25 basis points at its September meeting and then do so again in December. … READ MORE >
U.S. July employment report to show a gain of 200,000 jobs
The second, and more important, element of the jobs report will be the direction of the unemployment rate, which has been rising as more people, lured by rising wages, enter the workforce. … READ MORE >
PCE inflation continues to ease in June as income and spending gain
Top-line inflation in the personal consumption expenditures index increased in June by 0.1% and by 2.5% on a year-ago basis. … READ MORE >
American economy grew by 2.8% in second quarter, exceeding forecasts
A strong labor market, rising real wages and a 1% increase in disposable income bolstered household spending, which advanced by a sustainable 2.3%. … READ MORE >
GDP preview: U.S. top-line growth to show solid increase
The Fed will maintain its policy rate in a range between 5.25% and 5.5% when it meets at the end of July. But we anticipate a change in the committee’s policy statement that will signal a rate cut is on the table in September. … READ MORE >
Why a strong dollar is in America’s best interests
A strong dollar not only means that there is a healthy demand for American-made goods and services, but, perhaps more important, it is also a show of confidence in the U.S. government and financial institutions. … READ MORE >
Further disinflation in the June consumer price index points to a Fed rate cut
The road is now open to a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September. Broad-based core goods inflation along with easing energy and transportation costs all continue be the primary factors behind inflation’s decline from 9.1% in June 2022 to its current 3%. … READ MORE >