Through November this year, the American economy has produced 2.58 million jobs as inflation has eased from 6.4% to 3.2% all while the unemployment rate has remained below 4%. … READ MORE >
FOMC preview and the logic of Fed rate cuts in 2024
After nearly two years of raising the federal funds policy rate to restore price stability, the Federal Reserve is poised to all but declare that campaign to be over at its meeting next week. … READ MORE >
U.S. economic outlook: Expansion continues into 2024
Expect the economy to settle into its long-term growth rate of around 1.8% next year. Read our forecasts for growth, inflation, unemployment, the dollar, interest rates and fiscal policy. … READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: Slowdown even as jobs recover
Even with the overall pullback in manufacturing activity, employment in the sector has rebounded. After decades of decline, there are now as many goods-producing jobs in the American economy as in 2008. … READ MORE >
U.S. October consumer price index: Further evidence of disinflation
The October CPI report strongly implies a continuation of the current economic expansion and a soft landing for the American economy. … READ MORE >
U.S. October jobs report: Moderation in hiring as wage gains outpace inflation
The economy added 150,000 jobs in October with the unemployment rate at 3.9%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday. … READ MORE >
FOMC decision: Extended pause as Fed waits for economy and inflation to ease further
The Federal Reserve maintained its policy rate in a range between 5.25% to 5.5% at its November policy meeting on Wednesday. Given the recent backup in Treasury yields, with the 10-year increasing by 124 basis points from 3.74% on July 19 to 4.98% on Oct. 19, the Fed intends to … … READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: Financing costs and UAW strike take toll
Rising yields as well as the UAW strike contributed to a pullback in manufacturing in the United States into October, with the RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index slipping to 1.3 standard deviations below normal. … READ MORE >
Construction employment: Kickstarting the reindustrialization of the American economy
Public policy put in place in recent years points toward a tailwind for both construction employment and the manufacturing sector. … READ MORE >
Dollar ascendant? Why the dollar’s dominance will not fade.
The idea that the global economy can be organized around another currency seems out of place given the dollar’s ascendancy over the past 10 years during a period of uncertainty. … READ MORE >