The latest bank seizure should bolster confidence in the ability of the federal government and systemically important financial institutions to address any subsequent landmines among small and medium-size lenders … READ MORE >
Tighter financial conditions threaten Canada’s growth
The RSM Canada Financial Conditions Index remains at 1.4 standard deviations below normal, indicating that greater risk than normal is being priced into financial assets. … READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: Slowdown continues into April
Overall manufacturing activity remains at 1.85 standard deviations below normal, a level consistent with past recessions. … READ MORE >
FOMC preview: Is 10 the magic number?
We expect the Federal Reserve to hike the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 5% to 5.25% at its May 3 meeting, with changes in the FOMC statement that imply a possible pause in the rate hike campaign and a bias toward future tightening if inflation proves sticky and stubborn. … READ MORE >
U.S. growth slows to 1.1% as businesses pull back
Growth in the first quarter expanded at a 1.1% annualized pace and by 1.6% on a year-ago basis as a modest inventory correction and a large pullback in business investment offset the increase in household consumption. … READ MORE >
Growth, employment and identifying the end of a business cycle
The Federal Reserve’s rate hikes are starting to pull down growth just as a period of tighter lending will probably cool the economy further over the next few months. … READ MORE >
Why the dollar remains the world’s reserve currency, and will stay that way
We find the recent discussion around the end of the dollar dominance bereft of any linkage to the reality of international finance. … READ MORE >
March inflation data points to a Fed rate peak in May
The inflation outlook improved in March because of a mix of year-over-year base effects and a significant decline in energy prices, all of which caused the top-line reading to decline to 5% from 6% previously. … READ MORE >
After flush years, households show a reluctance to borrow
As flush households face the potential of an economic slowdown, they are reluctant to take on debt. Instead, households appear to prefer precautionary saving in contrast with overconsumption. … READ MORE >
Hiring cools in March as fears of a wage price spiral ease
The U.S. March employment report indicated that total jobs increased by 236,000, illustrating that hiring remains strong, albeit at a slower pace. The Bureau of Labor Statistics Friday report points toward easing concerns of a wage price spiral that underscores the direction of monetary policy as the Fed is poised to hike its policy rate by 25 basis points at its May 3 meeting. … READ MORE >