The sharp 3.4% decline in goods costs on a three-month average annualized pace stands in contrast with the 8.9% increase in housing costs, all of which poses quite a dilemma for the Fed. … READ MORE >
Did fiscal spending go too far? Assessing the global economy.
Policymakers, firm managers and investors should anticipate a significant fiscal narrowing for both public and private actors in the post-pandemic period. … READ MORE >
FOMC preview: Policy rate to increase by 50 basis points
Such an increase would follow a series of 75 basis-point increases and would lift the Fed’s policy rate to a range between 4.25% and 4.5%. … READ MORE >
Bank of Canada increases policy rate to 4.25%
The Bank of Canada raised its policy rate by 50 basis points to 4.25% on Wednesday, the seventh consecutive increase since March. … READ MORE >
U.S. economic outlook: Recession on the horizon
Our baseline forecast for the American economy next year calls for a mild recession by the second half of the year as the impact of higher interest rates sets in. … READ MORE >
U.S. jobs report: Rising wages pose a problem as hiring remains strong
average hourly earnings increased by 5.1% on a year-ago basis and by 0.6% on the month in addition to being revised higher in October. … READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: Sentiment sours even as activity remains stout
Our composite measure of manufacturer surveys conducted by five regional central banks indicates that manufacturing activity remains at 1.6 standard deviations below normal. … READ MORE >
The post-pandemic era and the end of hyper-globalization
The American economy is in the midst of a long-lasting structural change following the severe shocks unleashed by the pandemic. … READ MORE >
Financial conditions update: Rising risks and tightening markets
Despite a strong bounce in U.S. financial markets following better-than-anticipated inflation data for October, financial conditions remain tight. … READ MORE >
How high will interest rates go?
We expect the Fed to raise its policy rate above 5% in the near term while at the same time reducing its balance sheet by $95 billion per month. … READ MORE >