The Federal Reserve has a blunt yet effective instrument to fight inflation: raising the federal funds rate. But using it requires a delicate balancing act. We offer a snapshot of what to look for as the economic cycle plays out. … READ MORE >
Jackson Hole preview: Powell to set tone for next few years
Policymakers, investors and firms should prepare for a regime change in inflation that will require tighter monetary policy ahead as the central bank lifts the policy rate to 4% by the end of the year. … READ MORE >
US July CPI: Inflation posts likely peak as commodity, gas and transportation prices fall
Commodity, oil, and gasoline prices declined noticeably in July, driving the pace of top-line inflation lower even as core inflation continued to increase at a torrid pace. This will provide a large boost to overall consumption and economic activity as Americans likely spent roughly $400 million less on gas compared to the previous month which will result in improved consumption and direct relief to beleaguered households. … READ MORE >
Payroll employment returns to pre-pandemic levels
The U.S. unemployment rate now stands at 3.458%, the lowest rate in 50 years and one that many of us will most likely not observe again in our career arcs. … READ MORE >
U.S. July employment report: A recession is not yet at hand
Economies in recession do not produce 528,000 jobs in a given month and have 3.5% unemployment rates. Since January, total employment has increased by 3.3 million jobs and the unemployment rate has declined from 4% to 3.5%. With such a robust labor market, claims that the economy is in recession … … READ MORE >
Labor force dynamics: 60,000 jobs per month are needed to keep the jobless rate near 4.4%
Long-run changes in the labor force have slowed its growth and are likely to result in a shortage of workers even if the economy falls into recession. … READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: Sour topline sentiment despite robust shipments
July’s reading of 0.6 standard deviations below normal manufacturing conditions marks the third month of sub-standard activity. … READ MORE >
Q2 US GDP: Economy contracts for second consecutive quarter
From our point of view, the economy will likely soon meet the formal definition of being in a recession, though it isn’t there yet. … READ MORE >
Recession debate: What does the forward market say about the business cycle?
The forward market implies that the conventional recession definition of two consecutive quarters of negative growth is not yet consistent with an actual recession. … READ MORE >
FOMC policy decision: Fed hikes policy rate by 75 basis points
At this critical juncture, with the policy rate residing in neutral terrain, it is natural for the Fed to adjust its rhetoric as it considers next steps. … READ MORE >