The American economy added 336,000 jobs in September, far above forecasts and showing that the labor market has yet to ease. … READ MORE >
Chart of the Day: Falling oil and gas demand implies inflation relief
Falling wholesale gasoline prices imply a decline of 12% in retail gasoline prices in the coming weeks from its current level of $3.79 to roughly $3.34 per gallon. … READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: Four months of improvements at risk
Three of the five regional Federal Reserve surveys reported increased activity during the month, while the Philadelphia and Kansas City regions reported significant contractions. … READ MORE >
The economics of another U.S. government shutdown
A shutdown will hurt the economy, placing a drag on spending and overall economic activity as we approach the traditional holiday season. … READ MORE >
Don’t believe the hype: Student loan payments present modest drag on growth
Despite the hype and scare tactics around a well-telegraphed restart date, we estimate that it will result in only a 0.3 percentage point drag on GDP in the United States. … READ MORE >
FOMC policy decision: No rate hike as Fed implies soft landing
The Fed maintained its policy rate in a range between 5.25% and 5.5% while revisions to its Summary of Economic Projections strongly imply that the central bank no longer expects a recession. … READ MORE >
R-star: The role of the natural rate of interest in monetary policy and economic growth
Known by economists as r-star, it has risen to a range between 1.75% and 2% in our estimation, a marked increase from the 0.5% that had prevailed over the previous 15 years. … READ MORE >
Why the Fed should lift its 2% inflation target
We expect the Fed to hold its policy rate steady at 5.25% to 5.5% at its meeting next week and would advise the Fed to begin shaping expectations about a likely cyclical peak at that range. … READ MORE >
Potential impact of UAW strike would not be sufficient to cause recession
Our back-of-the-envelope estimate indicates that the economy would suffer a modest 0.1% drag during the current quarter should the action last for a month. … READ MORE >
As financing costs surge, the real economy faces a reckoning: Rising loan costs are squeezing middle market firms
As the era of easy money and low-cost financing ends, middle market businesses are facing a reckoning.
Rising real interest rates are pushing up the cost of commercial and industrial loans, making it harder for these firms to meet payrolls and finance their expansion, according to a new survey from RSM US LLP. The result is a risk to economic growth across the real economy and, potentially, a recession. … READ MORE >









