At this critical juncture, with the policy rate residing in neutral terrain, it is natural for the Fed to adjust its rhetoric as it considers next steps. … READ MORE >
Monetary policy tightening, the bond market and the business cycle
Economic shocks including inflation, interest rate increases and energy market turmoil are hitting the global economy and showing up in fixed income markets. … READ MORE >
FOMC policy decision preview: Fed to hike lending rate .75% next week
A 100-basis-point increase in the federal funds rate will be on the table during the Federal Open Market Committee meeting next week, but we expect the central bank will hike the policy rate by 75 basis points. … READ MORE >
Wholesale gas futures point to drop below $4 a gallon
Wholesale gasoline futures imply that the average price per gallon of gas, which stands at $4.44, will most likely fall below $4 per gallon by the end of the summer. … READ MORE >
Can a price cap on Russian oil work?
The idea of placing a cap on the price of Russian oil leaves the question of enforcement—or how to prevent Russia and other nations from getting around the cap. … READ MORE >
The return of king dollar: The greenback in an era of inflation
The return of inflation, interest rate differentials and a quickly changing geopolitical landscape are the primary catalysts behind the recent surge in the value of the American dollar. … READ MORE >
U.S. June CPI: Persistent top-line inflation hits 9.1%
The top-line inflation rate hit 9.1% in June on the back of a 11.2% increase in gasoline prices and a 7.5% jump in overall energy prices … READ MORE >
U.S. employment report for June indicates no recession now
An American economy in free fall does not tend to produce 372,000 jobs in any given month, as the June employment report showed on Friday. The data released by the Labor Department strongly implied that the economy is not in recession. … READ MORE >
U.S. June jobs preview: Slower hiring in rate-sensitive industries
We expect the June U.S. employment report to show a total gain of 225,000 jobs, with risk of a stronger pace of hiring and an increase in the unemployment rate to 3.7%. … READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index shows a slowing industrial sector
Three of the Federal Reserve’s regional surveys on manufacturing activity are now reporting outright contractions and the other two are falling quickly toward contraction. … READ MORE >