Businesses, and the economy overall, face uncertainty amid the regime change in the global economy. … READ MORE >
Market minute: Canadian dollar remains under duress
Should higher tariffs on Canada announced by the United States take effect, we would expect the value of the loonie to continue depreciating against the dollar. … READ MORE >
Market minute: The ripple effect of higher European defense spending
A common European Union defense buildup would provide substantial relief to many manufacturers, particularly in Germany. … READ MORE >
Market minute: U.S. housing supply is not meeting demand
One reason for the inadequate supply is that many homeowners are sitting on low-rate mortgages locked in during the pandemic and before. … READ MORE >
The new mercantilism: Tariffs and currency manipulation in an era of U.S.-China tensions
After decades of growing trade and current account imbalances in the U.S., the new administration has set out to change this equation. Now, a new mercantilism, rooted in tariffs and trade protection, is emerging. … READ MORE >
Market minute: Clash of the titans to cause further currency manipulation
The relative yield differentials between the U.S. and China point to the possibility that China will engineer a gradual, but large, depreciation in the yuan this year. … READ MORE >
Market minute: Money markets signal an easing in 10-year yields
A look at the spread between the two-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields in comparison with the Treasury term premium implies room for further easing in long-term yields. … READ MORE >
Inflation accelerates in January amid concerns about rising expectations
The CPI data for January will feed into expectations that the Fed is done cutting rates just as policy uncertainty on trade and immigration is likely to feed into rising inflation expectations.
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Market minute: The problem of sticky and stubborn inflation
While housing inflation is easing, owners’ equivalent rent remains one of the two major catalysts for rising cost pressures on American households. … READ MORE >
Market minute: Foreign purchases of U.S. Treasury issuance
Through the end of November, the largest foreign holders of U.S. debt were Japan at $1.09 trillion, China at $768 billion and the U.K. at $765 billion. … READ MORE >