One of the more underdiscussed economic developments following the shocks of the pandemic has been the United States’ outperformance compared to its peers. This success can be traced to bold monetary and fiscal policies put in place that have hardened supply chains, bolstered energy independence and ... READ MORE >
Fed cuts rates to support a soft landing in the economy
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday reduced its policy rate by 50 basis points to a range between 4.75% and 5% to protect full employment and preserve the soft landing it has achieved following a historic price shock. The central bank also laid out a path of monetary policy that suggests additional 25 ... READ MORE >
Real federal funds rate illustrates that Fed policy is restrictive
When I am on the road talking to clients about the economy and the path of Federal Reserve policy, the most frequent question I get is: If the economy is growing how can policy be restrictive? The answer lies not so much in the current economy as it does in what awaits if the Fed continues along its ... READ MORE >
FOMC preview: Why the Fed’s pivot to lower rates matters
The Federal Open Market Committee’s meeting on Sept. 18 will implement a significant turn away from a focus on price stability—which has been achieved—to supporting maximum sustainable employment. In turn, the policy pivot will create the conditions for greater fixed business investment, increased ... READ MORE >
U.S. August CPI: Further signs of moderation as energy prices decline
Inflation inside the consumer price index continued to moderate in August as the top-line figure increased by 0.2% on the month and by 2.5% on a year-ago basis. Core inflation increased by 0.3% and 3.2%, respectively, on the back of a 1% decline in used cars and truck prices as well as an 0.8% drop in ... READ MORE >
Financial markets update: Front-running the Fed’s first cut, and our new call on rates
Investors expect the Federal Reserve to cut the federal funds rate and signal a series of further cuts through next year at its next meeting on Sept. 18. Those expectations have resulted in a notable decline in 10-year bond yields. By the second week of August, investors had pushed 10-year Treasury ... READ MORE >
U.S. August jobs report: A soft landing in the economy
The U.S. August report was a solid if unspectacular one that reflected the type of non-inflationary job growth that will give Federal Reserve policymakers confidence as they embark on their long-awaited campaign to reduce rates. Once one adjusts for the benchmark revision, employment has been ... READ MORE >
Fed’s key inflation gauge shows price stability as consumers hit the accelerator
Disinflation, strong household consumption and incomes rising above the rate of inflation continue to be the defining narrative of the U.S. economy as it heads into the second half of the year. With the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, the personal consumption expenditures index, ... READ MORE >
Expect strong U.S. jobs report for August, but the devil is in the details
We expect a net gain in total employment of 175,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.2% when the U.S. jobs report is released on Sept. 6. In addition, we expect average hourly earnings to increase by 0.3% on the month and for the year-ago figure to cool slightly to a 3.5% gain. The key to any ... READ MORE >
Powell at Jackson Hole: Policy pivot signals the start of rate cuts
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech at the Kansas City Fed symposium on monetary policy in Jackson Hole, Wyo., showed that the central bank is preparing for a policy pivot toward a rate cut designed to protect and preserve the economic soft landing achieved by the Fed. In his statement, ... READ MORE >