The threat of increased inflation and increased public debt has sent 2-year bond yields above 4.0% this week, while pushing 10-year yields above 4.4%. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Why gas tax holidays and export bans don’t work
A gas tax holiday and an export ban on U.S. crude are politically appealing, but in the end they only put upward pressure on prices. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Credit default swaps and the Gulf region
As the war in the Middle East escalates, it is time to start considering the downside risks and the potential sources of contagion through the financial channel. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Oil shock, affordability and the American public
Top-line inflation is likely to increase to between 3.5% and 4%, which will carry with it second- and third-order effects even if the conflict ends soon. … READ MORE >
Fed holds rates steady as war raises uncertainty
The evolving oil shock has raised uncertainty in the economy, which will result in a period of risk management by the central bank. … READ MORE >
Bank of Canada holds interest rate again amid global economic disruptions
The Bank of Canada held its key interest rate amid domestic economic slack and wider disruptions due to the ongoing war in the Middle East. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Energy shock driving up long-term rates
The 10-year and 30-year gilts in the U.K. in particular are being charged a higher risk premium. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Fed rate cuts on hold as inflation risks mount
Expect the Fed to hold rates steady on Wednesday while raising its inflation forecast and reducing its estimates for growth and employment. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Great expectations and inflation dynamics
For years, near-term public expectations of inflation were largely discounted in favor of longer-term indicators. Not anymore. … READ MORE >
PCE inflation data shows the calm before the storm
On a month-over-month basis, the top-line PCE index, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, increased by 0.3%, with the core rate excluding food and energy rising by 0.4%. … READ MORE >









