The RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index is signaling the potential of further economic moderation from rising prices and slowing demand. … READ MORE >
U.S. GDP declines by 1.4%: This is what an overheating economy looks like
Growth in the first three months of the year contracted at a 1.4% pace as Americans turned to imports to meet torrid demand that is simply unsustainable. … READ MORE >
Why the U.S. dollar is strengthening
Policy by the central bank, interest rate differentials and a risk haven move into U.S. dollar-denominated assets are driving up the dollar against major trading currencies. … READ MORE >
Interest rate update: Confidence in the Fed, but uncertainty over long-term growth
The Federal Reserve has started to normalize interest rates, lifting the short-term transaction cost off the zero bound. The result has been a 100-basis point increase in the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds. … READ MORE >
The illusion of inventory and price controls in the current economy
Disruptions of supply chains have renewed calls for political authorities to do something about soaring prices. Is this the time for price controls? No. … READ MORE >
Inflation marches higher, hitting 8.5% compared to a year ago
Long ago and far away, it was once taught that inflation has long and variable lags. That still probably applies when setting policy, managing a portfolio or making longer-term investments as top-line inflation jumped by 1.2% in March to 8.5% on a year-ago basis, according to government data released Tuesday. … … READ MORE >
FOMC minutes: Fed prepares to shift its policy normalization into a higher gear
The Federal Reserve is preparing to launch the next phase of its policy normalization by drawing down its balance sheet as soon as May to boost rates out along the maturity spectrum. … READ MORE >
RSM U.S. Financial Conditions Index: Pricing in the cost of uncertainty
The RSM US Financial Conditions Index remains more than 0.2 standard deviations below normal. This is a indication that investors are requiring additional compensation for the risk of lending and the increased cost of investing in an environment of heightened uncertainty. … READ MORE >
U.S. March jobs report: American labor market remains red hot
The American labor market remains red hot as the employment-to-population ratio among prime-age workers surged to 80.0% in March, up from 79.5% in February. … READ MORE >
What is the yield curve telling us?
Fears of an imminent recession are somewhat overblown. A closer look at the different components of the yield curve reveals a nuanced picture of the economic outlook … READ MORE >