After nearly two years of extreme accommodation in the financial markets, the RSM US Financial Conditions index eased to 0.96 standard deviations above neutral—a sign that markets are starting to price in more risk. … READ MORE >
RSM Canada Financial Conditions Index shows the return of risk
Risk is being reintroduced into Canada’s financial markets as investment decisions and monetary policy begin to pivot from interest rates at the zero bound. … READ MORE >
Price stability now a paramount concern as inflation hits 7%
The Consumer Price Index rose to a 7% annual rate in December, presenting a challenge to the Federal Reserve as it attempts to restore price stability. … READ MORE >
Monetary and fiscal policy in a changing economy: The Fed’s mandate for price stability
In the year ahead, the economy and financial markets will be influenced by how the Federal Reserve strikes a balance between its dual mandates of full employment and price stability. We examine the challenge of keeping prices stable. … READ MORE >
U.S. December jobs report: Economy has strongest year of job creation on record
The total number of jobs created last year was roughly 6 million as the unemployment rate declined from 6.5% at the start of the year to 3.9%. … READ MORE >
December jobs report preview: Expect the unemployment rate to fall to 4.1%
We expect a net change in total employment of 475,000 jobs and a decline in the unemployment rate to 4.1% when the jobs report for December is published on Friday. … READ MORE >
Monetary and fiscal policy in a changing economy: Meeting the Fed’s full employment mandate
As workers have returned to the labor force, incomes have risen and the unemployment rate has dropped to 4.2%, a robust discussion has followed over what constitutes full employment in the American economy. … READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: Expansion continues despite omicron, supply chain uncertainty
The RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index remained solid in December at 1.3 standard deviations above neutral as the economy continued to expand into the end of the year. But that strength is in question as the omicron variant continues to spread. … READ MORE >
Consumer confidence surveys reflect a bifurcation of the nation’s economy
Recent readings of consumer confidence are revealing an increasingly bifurcated economy as households continue to grapple with the pandemic. … READ MORE >
Chart of the day: Supply chain issues ease as demand-pull inflation rises
Estimates of logistics data in the RSM US Supply Chain Index, as seen in the index’s Nowcast, point to improved conditions in the U.S. supply chain heading into the end of the year. … READ MORE >