First-time claims for unemployment benefits declined to 310,000 for the week ending Sept. 4, down from 345,000 the week before and well below the 13-week moving average of 377,000. Continuing claims increased to 2.783 million for the week ending Aug. 28. … READ MORE >
Budget brinkmanship as another debt-ceiling debacle looms
Once Congress returns from its summer recess, it will need to take up the funding of the government past Sept. 30, when the financing of its debt runs out at the end of the fiscal year. Lawmakers need to learn from the past that such debt ceiling showdowns extract a price from the economy. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: The ‘real’ unemployment rate
When those who are not in the labor force but want a job are included, that rate, which we call the “real” unemployment rate, is closer to 8.4%. … READ MORE >
U.S. August employment report: Delta variant exerts a drag on hiring
Hiring slowed to 235,000 in August, down from a revised gain of 1.053 million jobs in July, as the unemployment rate declined to 5.2%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. … READ MORE >
Jobless claims: After the deluge
First-time jobless claims decreased to 340,000 for the week ending Aug. 28, from an upwardly revised 354,000 the week before, while continuing claims fell to 2.75 million, according to government data released on Thursday. … READ MORE >
RSM UK Financial Conditions Index: Gimme shelter
The RSM UK Financial Conditions Index has moved to its highest level since 2014, reaching 1.1 standard deviations above levels of risk that are normally priced into financial assets. … READ MORE >
RSM Canada Financial Conditions Index: The global threat of a resurgent virus
Canada’s financial markets continued their cautious optimism in August despite the unexpected 1.1% decline in second-quarter gross domestic product. … READ MORE >
August jobs report preview: Expect a hint of delta drag on hiring
We expect an increase in total employment of 600,000 in August with the chance of a stronger number linked to seasonal hiring in education when the jobs report is released on Friday. … READ MORE >
Coronavirus update: Fourth wave of infections to carry economic impact
In the United States, infections have increased to a rate of 157,000 per day, with each loss of life and the use of medical resources and foregone activity taking their toll on economic progress. … READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: Still expansionary, but slipping from its peak
After a year of rapid growth in the manufacturing sector, there are signs that the buoyancy is ebbing. The RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index, while still elevated, declined in August after peaking in July. … READ MORE >