Food prices increased by 3.5% in March, according to recent government data, and those increases are likely to become more muted as global supply chains move back toward full production in the near term. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Rebound in rail freight is an early sign of recovery
Intermodal rail freight is in the midst of a strong recovery in another sign that the manufacturing sector and the economy have entered the early stages of what we expect to be a robust expansion this year. … READ MORE >
Consumer Price Index: Inflation begins its temporary march upward
Increases in energy and transportation costs that were made more extreme by comparisons to last year’s economic downturn helped push the Consumer Price Index higher at an annual rate of 2.6% in March. … READ MORE >
RSM recovery watch: Upgraded growth forecast and more evidence of a turn in the business cycle
There are arguably enough positive indications to begin planning for a return to normal commercial activity. Here is a sampling of what’s to come, or better put, what the data is suggesting. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Spillover effects of U.S. stimulus programs on Canada’s commodity and energy prices
Upward pressure on the Canadian dollar will have positive effects on the value of Canadian output, with increased demand for its products and increased buying power for Canadian consumers having a positive impact on both U.S. and Canadian economies. … READ MORE >
Labor market update: Signs of normalization as long-term challenges persist
The labor market is showing signs of optimism that might best be described as hedging its bets—confident that the vaccination program will eventually allow the reemergence of the normal workplace, but recognizing that it may not take just a snap of the fingers to get there. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Fracking gives Texas and New Mexico swing-state status
We can anticipate increased consumer demand for energy, especially given the rapid advances in vaccine distribution. But whether price increases are sustainable or more North American wells come back online is speculation because of the potential of market interference. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Estimating unemployment during the pandemic
Friday’s headline U3 unemployment rate of 6.0% for February is likely an undercount of the number of out-of-work people in the United States, not by design, but by the peculiar circumstances of the pandemic. While the topline change in net employment after adding in back revisions was 1.072 million, it will likely be later in 2022 before the economy returns to full employment, which we define as somewhere near 3.5%. … READ MORE >
March jobs report blows past expectations with best still to come
An American economy about to regain its swagger after a year of pandemic-induced crisis was on full display in the March jobs report. … READ MORE >
Reimagining redevelopment and innovation: A U.S. infrastructure bank
We are proposing the development of an independent infrastructure bank that would operate as the fiscal equivalent of the Federal Reserve. … READ MORE >