Whether you make guacamole from scratch, as my grandmother Juanita liked to do, or buy pre-made spicy guacamole from Central Market in Austin, Tex., it’s going to cost more. … READ MORE >
Trump, tariffs and financial markets
Tariffs cannot be both a negotiating tactic and an offset that raises revenues to finance tax cuts. … READ MORE >
U.S. households show robust gains on spending and income
Robust income and spending gains continue to underscore a strong economy that is benefiting not only from real income gains but also from rising equity and home prices. … READ MORE >
Morning market minute: FHA loan demand shows rising stress among homebuyers
While conventional home loans still make up approximately 60% of all loans, purchasing a home at this point is financially out of reach for a growing percentage of the population. … READ MORE >
Robust household consumption supports 2.3% GDP growth
We expect growth this year to expand at a 2.5% pace with risk of a quicker pace of expansion—above 3%—as the economy continues to outperform its global peers. … READ MORE >
Morning market minute: Managing currency risk in an era of regime change
We expect the international investment community to continue purchasing U.S. financial assets, and in particular to continue financing the U.S. budget and trade deficits. … READ MORE >
Fed pauses rate cuts as inflation flattens out and policy changes loom
The Fed’s decisions set up an inevitable clash with President Trump, who is on record as wanting lower rates in contrast with the hawkish pause adopted by the Fed. … READ MORE >
Morning market minute: The questions that Powell will not want to answer
Jerome Powell’s answers to questions about trade and fiscal policy will drive volatility given the sensitivity of the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield and the American dollar to growing policy uncertainty. … READ MORE >
Morning market minute: Rate path more uncertain as era of fiscal dominance begins
The central bank’s decisions this year will be shaped by the Trump administration’s policies on trade and immigration. … READ MORE >
Morning market minute: Managing the dollar’s risk, volatility and tariffs
A look at the implied volatility of the dollar-euro pair suggests that there is ample room for dollar weakness and volatility until tariff policies are resolved … READ MORE >