A strong dollar is good for the American economy. Not only does a strong dollar mean that there is a healthy demand for American-made goods and services, but, perhaps more important, it’s also a show of confidence in the U.S. government and financial institutions. Like any asset, the dollar’s value ... READ MORE >
Further disinflation in the June consumer price index points to a Fed rate cut
Disinflation in energy and core goods has been the underlying inflation narrative over the past 18 months, and that continued to be the case in the consumer price index for June. Declines in gasoline prices, used cars and trucks, transportation and commodities caused a 0.1% decline in the top-line CPI ... READ MORE >
As economy cools, Fed needs to cut rates
Growth, inflation and hiring in the United States are all cooling toward a more sustainable pace, which will most likely define the second half of the year as the Federal Reserve gets ready to reduce its restrictive policy rate. While the fiscal tailwinds that have bolstered the economy are ... READ MORE >
Slower pace of hiring in June bolsters case for Fed rate cut
This is what an economy normalizing back toward long-term trends in growth, inflation and hiring looks like. In June, the American economy generated 206,000 jobs while the unemployment rate increased to 4.1%, or 4.054% when taken out to three decimal points. At the same time, wage growth eased to ... READ MORE >
June jobs report preview: Beveridge curve implies a balanced labor market as hiring cools
The labor market and inflation have finally come into balance. As Mary Daly, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, said recently, the inflection point where unemployment risks could trump inflation risks “is getting nearer.” Now, the risk is that as the economy cools, hiring will slow ... READ MORE >
Fed’s key inflation gauge continues to cool in May as income increases by 0.5%
The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation continued to ease in May as the personal consumption expenditures Index remained unchanged on the month and rose by 2.6% from a year ago. The core PCE index, which excludes the more volatile food and energy components, advanced by 0.1% and increased ... READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: Malaise continues in June
The best that can be said about manufacturing activity in five regional Federal Reserve banks is that it has moved more or less sideways over the past three months. This lackluster performance is consistent with the global slowdown in economic activity that is a response to tight monetary policies and ... READ MORE >
The de-risking of world trade: Industrial policy in an era of changing political economy
The death knell of globalization and free trade has been sounded over the past several years as nations have imposed tariffs and embraced industrial policies to protect vital industries. For the past five decades, the economics of efficiency has dominated the trade and financial framework. The logic ... READ MORE >
U.S. harmonized index of consumer prices: A more accurate metric of disinflation?
Part of a central bank’s challenge in setting its policy rate lies in knowing which measure of inflation to follow. From the consumer price index to the personal consumption expenditures index, different measures of inflation can tell a different story. On Friday, investors and policymakers will ... READ MORE >
U.S. inflation expectations are well anchored as Fed nears decision
American inflation expectations remain remarkably well anchored given the price shock of the past two and a half years. Our preferred measure of inflation expectations—the Federal Reserve’s five-year forward, five-year breakeven rate and the five-year forward breakeven index—imply that professional ... READ MORE >