The emergence of the Delta variant presents another round of economic risks that are part of the reason why we recently lowered our growth forecast for the year from 7.5% to 7% in the United States. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Inflation expectations remain rational and muted
A look at one of our preferred measurements of inflation expectations implies that the risk of a sustained outbreak of inflation is receding just as another set of inflation data—the Consumer Price Index for June—is about to be published on Tuesday. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Improving labor market signals increased consumer confidence and spending
The steady drop in unemployment claims this year coincides with a steady increase in consumer confidence, as seen in the Langer Research Consumer Comfort Index. … READ MORE >
The rebirth of industrial policy in the United States
The U.S. Innovation and Competition Act of 2021, a $250 billion legislative package passed in June to facilitate the research and development of science and technology, represents a sea change in U.S. economic strategy and a return of the government’s use of industrial policy. But the embrace of industrial policy to solve economic and strategic problems carries with it considerable possibilities and risks. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims imply that ending benefits does not improve employment numbers
First-time claims inched higher by 2,000, to 373,000, for the week ending July 3 from an upwardly revised 371,000 for the week ending June 26, according to the Labor Department. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: May was another good month for the labor market
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey suggests that American workers are enjoying a moment when work is plentiful and firms appear willing to meet demand for higher wages. … READ MORE >
Economic update: GDP to grow above 7% this year as expansion takes hold
The American economy will continue to boom in the second half of the year following what we expect will be 7.8% growth through the first six months. … READ MORE >
June jobs report: Let the good times roll
The U.S. economy generated a robust 850,000 jobs in June while at the same time the unemployment rate advanced to 5.9% amid an increase of 151,602 workers in the labor force, according to government data released Friday. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims resume their downward trend, falling to 364,000
Initial jobless claims declined to 364,000 for the week ending June 26, resuming their downward trend following a few weeks of flat to down readings. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Consumer confidence is sign of good things to come
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index increased to 127.3 from a revised up 120 in May. The topline index is traditionally interpreted as a forward-looking indicator of consumer spending and is very sensitive to employment conditions. … READ MORE >









