More than 1.3 million state and local government jobs have been lost since December 2019. While this is the result of a broader economic shock across industrial sectors, we expect additional furloughs in state and local governments unless federal aid is quickly put in place. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Longer-term stagnation in the labor force
Since the summer, the labor force has been shrinking by up to 3% on a year-over-year basis. Should the pandemic drag on, there is the potential of more and more of the labor force becoming discouraged, ending efforts to look for work. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Estimating unemployment during the pandemic
Friday’s headline U3 unemployment rate of 6.7% for December is probably an undercount of the number of out-of-work people in the United States, not by design, but because of the peculiar circumstances of the pandemic. … READ MORE >
U.S. December employment report: Temporary stall in hiring
Hiring in the American economy declined by 140,000 in December as firms felt the effects of the six-month delay by the political sector in providing fiscal aid to the public, and the subsequent pulling back in economic activity. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: 10-year Treasury yield pushes above 1%
Yields broke past 1% overnight Tuesday and traded in a range on Wednesday. They did not move sharply following the civil unrest in Washington. We expect the 10-year yield to end the year at 1.29%, which is up from the 1.073% at the time of this writing. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims: Still elevated as another benefits cliff looms
First-time jobless claims held steady at 787,000 for the week ending Jan. 2, while the number of those claiming unemployment benefits stands at 19.1 million, the Labor Department reported Thursday. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Residential construction spending remains robust
Residential spending has been rising since February 2019, increasing by nearly 18% on a year-over-year basis in November. … READ MORE >
December payroll preview: State and local government employment to continue contracting
We anticipate a decline of 75,000 jobs in total U.S. employment and an increase in the unemployment rate to 6.8% when the jobs report is released Friday. … READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index remains positive, but within a range
Optimism in the American manufacturing community is poised to continue in the new year, though with some caution attached. It is clear that the risks around the pandemic are rising and we may observe volatility in manufacturing indices until the bottlenecks around vaccine distribution are solved. … READ MORE >
The U.S. external sector: Trade channel to support 2021 recovery
We expect the trade channel to be a major part of the 2021 growth narrative as the Biden administration mends fences with the major American trade partners, excluding China, early next year. In fact, one can already observe the stirring in animal spirits in the global economy as the nascent … … READ MORE >