Global auto production has declined 32% on a year-ago basis largely because of the combined impact of the global trade war and pandemic. But as dour that reality is, there are signs that the disruptions to global supply chains will be lifted. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Consumer Price Index shows little risk of inflation
The October Consumer Price Index was flat on the top line and in the core metric that excludes energy and food. … READ MORE >
Chart of the day: Number of unemployed persons per job falls to 2
Recovery of the domestic labor force continues as the number of unemployed persons per job opening in the United States fell to 1.95 in September while individuals continued to be recalled to work. But these data are dynamic and prone to change. … READ MORE >
Looking ahead: next steps for the economy after Pfizer’s promising vaccine news
Pfizer and German biotech firm BioNTech’s Monday announcement that their COVID-19 vaccine candidate has shown to be more than 90% effective in preliminary results from an ongoing trial is a much needed win in the fight against the pandemic. While significant challenges remain, we are likely now closer to the end of the pandemic than the beginning. … READ MORE >
Election economics: Biden victory projected as Senate hangs in the balance
Joe Biden’s projected victory implies a possible era of significant changes to address the pandemic, expand domestic health care, modernize the nation’s infrastructure and adopt expansionary fiscal policy—all of which will define the economic policy landscape over the next two years. However, the party that controls the Senate will determine the scope of that change, and that outcome is pending the two runoffs for the seats in Georgia. … READ MORE >
Chart of the Day: A stagnant minimum wage for society’s essential working people
Although some cities and states have imposed higher minimum wages, the federal minimum wage has not kept up with the times. Fifty years ago, people working at the minimum wage were receiving a salary that was 50% of average hourly earnings. Today, the $7.25 per hour minimum wage is 29% of the $25 average hourly earnings of hourly workers. … READ MORE >
Coronavirus update: Defining a national emergency
The spread of the coronavirus continues to accelerate. While it was taking about three to four weeks for the virus to spread to a million new people over the summer months, it took only 16 days for the case count to grow from eight million new infections on Oct. 11 to nine million on Oct. 27. It then took only 10 days for that figure to reach 10 million on Nov. 6. … READ MORE >
Chart of the Day: Employees have returned to work, but 13.3 million remain sidelined by the pandemic
While the recovery in the labor market continues with millions returning to work since local economies began to reopen in late May, roughly 13.3 million people remain dependent on government aid. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Estimating unemployment during the pandemic
By adjusting the number of unemployed for the number of people who are not in the labor force but want a job, and the pandemic unemployment rate jumps to 8.0%, our analysis shows. … READ MORE >
U.S. employment report: Unequivocally strong numbers
The end of the 2020 census and the loss of its workers masked a robust 906,000 increase in private-sector payrolls in October that was far stronger than the implied figure of 638,000 would suggest. … READ MORE >