The Federal Open Market Committee on Thursday kept its policy rate steady at a range between zero and 25 basis points and made little meaningful change to its policy statement. … READ MORE >
U.S. employment report preview: Sustained improvement, downside risk
We expect total employment to increase by 580,000 and the unemployment rate to fall to 7.6% when the October estimate of employment conditions in the United States is released on Friday. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims: Modest improvement, but levels still elevated
First-time jobless claims continued to show modest improvement with the top-line figure arriving at 751,000 for the week ending Oct. 31. That is down 7,000 from the previous week’s revised level of 758,000, according to Labor Department data released Thursday. … READ MORE >
An inconclusive outcome: Election produces no winner, expected court challenge
The presidential election produced no clear outcome on Tuesday night, and instead brought uncertainty, financial market volatility and political risk across the business world. … READ MORE >
Coronavirus update: Constructing a plan for containment
A mathematician at MIT, Scott Sheffield, has outlined an alternative approach — and the math behind it — to our current course of dealing with the pandemic. It is designed “for a society that has resolved to keep future infections low in anticipation of a vaccine.” … READ MORE >
Treasuries remain a safe haven in the pandemic, even as transaction demand falls
Global financial markets are reacting to the resurgence of the coronavirus in Europe, the United States and elsewhere and the prospect of increased U.S. postelection fiscal spending. … READ MORE >
FOMC preview: All is quiet
Thursday’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee will almost surely signal that all is quiet on the monetary front given the major changes by the central bank this year. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: As demand for oil sags, price and production tumble
For the third time in 20 years, the bottom has fallen out of oil prices, which will most likely have enormous implications for the economies of the U.S., Canada and Mexico, and have enormous potential geopolitical ramifications. … READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index breaks above 2018-20 downtrend
A rebound in manufacturing sentiment implies that the domestic economy is moving briskly back toward recovery. For this reason, we expect that the October Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index will reflect a modest improvement in overall sentiment and another month of robust new orders. … READ MORE >
Third-quarter GDP: Record growth, but closing the output gap will take years
Top-line growth of 33.1% in the third quarter gross domestic product woefully overstates the impaired condition of the American economy that is still in need of robust fiscal support and monetary accommodation. … READ MORE >