The impact of the $1.9 trillion in fiscal aid put on the table this year bolstered U.S. personal income by a record 21.1% in March, resulting in a 4.2% increase in personal spending. Income excluding government transfers increased by 0.9% on the month. Compensation increased by 1%, while wages and … … READ MORE >
Fed policy decision: Steady as U.S. economy at inflection point
The Federal Reserve made no substantial changes on Wednesday to the path of interest rates, its monthly $120 billion in asset purchases, overnight interest rates or interest paid on excess reserves. … READ MORE >
First-quarter GDP: Growth improves as the recovery accelerates
An improved public health outlook linked to mass vaccinations and a flood of fiscal aid coursing through the American economy boosted gross domestic product by 6.4% during the first three months of the year. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Output gap to close in current quarter, an extraordinary achievement
We are now fully confident that the American economy will move back above the pre-pandemic level of activity in the current quarter. Given the size of the shock to the real economy, and the depth and breadth of the crisis, this recovery is remarkable. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Surging RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index implies a robust recovery
For the second month in a row, manufacturers’ optimism surged, which implies further acceleration in overall industrial production and manufacturing conditions. … READ MORE >
GDP preview: 6% growth forecast with room to accelerate
We expect that the initial estimate of U.S. gross domestic product for the first quarter, which will be released Thursday, will show 6% growth, which is somewhat below the Bloomberg consensus of 6.8%. … READ MORE >
Global economy to expand by 6% as vaccinations accelerate
The events that shook the global economy to its core last year – policy errors and a pandemic occurring at the end of a decade-long business cycle — finally appear to be bottoming out. … READ MORE >
Interest rate update: The changing yield landscape, in eight charts
The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds has moved to 1.55%, within 50 basis points of already low pre-pandemic rates. While anything near 1.60% is better than the 0.60% observed last year, we expect the yield to rise to 1.9% at the end of the year. … READ MORE >
FOMC preview: You can’t always get what you want
The Federal Open Market Committee’s decision on the federal funds rate Wednesday will for the most part be a non-market-moving event, with the Federal Reserve looking to convey a consistent outlook on the direction of policy and rates. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Leading economic index points to robust expansion of industrial production
There are more signs of a recovery in the works. Both industrial production and the Conference Board’s leading economic indicator reported positive year-over-year growth rates in March. … READ MORE >









