The RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index is starting to show cracks in the optimism of the past few months as the economy decelerates and the pandemic intensifies. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Increase in productivity can’t mask need for long-term miracle
The Bureau of Labor Statistics recently released third-quarter productivity data that reinforced our view that a recovery from the depths of the economic shutdown is indeed underway. But in the long term, the U.S. still needs a productivity miracle. … READ MORE >
Pre-holiday data deluge: A November to remember
Among a series of economic reports released on Wednesday, first-time jobless claims increased for the second consecutive week, with the top line increasing to 778,000 for the week ending Nov. 21, up from 742,000 previously, … READ MORE >
RSM U.K. Financial Conditions Index: Adjusting expectations after double-dosed shocks
The news that Oxford/AstraZeneca has created a potential vaccine will bolster U.K. financial conditions and economic prospects heading into the end of the year. … READ MORE >
Coronavirus update: The beginning of the end
The number of potential coronavirus vaccines has increased to three with Oxford/AstraZeneca announcing on Monday that their technology is potentially 62% effective with two full doses and 90% effective if one gets a half a dose followed by a full dose. … READ MORE >
Anticipating a flood of personal and commercial bankruptcies in 2021
The long shadow of the economic shock is likely to cause firms and individuals to turn to the courts for a fresh start through the shedding of debt. … READ MORE >
Comment: Treasury Department moves to end select pandemic-era lending programs
The Treasury Department told the Federal Reserve on Thursday that it would not extend nine of the 13 liquidity and lending programs aimed at easing the effects of the pandemic. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: A key measure of future inflation implies disinflation risks
The Federal Reserve’s preferred forward-looking inflation metric — called the five-year, five-year forward break-even inflation rate — implies that pricing risks to the economic outlook revolve around disinflation, not inflation, over the next 10 years. … READ MORE >
Jobless claims: Data going wrong way as pandemic intensifies
Initial jobless claims increased by 742,000 for the week ending Nov. 14 as the pandemic intensified and lockdowns spread across the economy. … READ MORE >
The year ahead: Resilience, recovery and reimagination
The possibility of 500 million vaccine doses produced domestically for distribution in 2021 carries the potential that close to $4 trillion in impaired economic activity could be unlocked in the second half of next year. … READ MORE >