We are entering the colder months – when infections are expected to rise as people move inside – and we have yet to lower the rate of infection to the insignificant levels that might allow for the normalization of activity. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims: No meaningful improvement in the pace of firings
Initial jobless claims for the week ending Sept. 19 arrived at 870,000, up from 860,000 during the previous week, the Labor Department reported on Thursday. … READ MORE >
In the long run, U.S. needs a productivity miracle
The Congressional Budget Office recently published its long-term budget outlook for 2020. Beneath the outlook’s headline of rising debt-to-GDP ratios are significant policy challenges facing the U.S. economy. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Resurgence of pandemic in the U.K.
The sharp sell-off across financial markets on Monday is linked to fears about a global resurgence of the pandemic. Nowhere is that more evident than in the U.K. … READ MORE >
Tracking the spread of COVID-19: A resurgent virus, and a grim milestone
Following a late-summer lull in the coronavirus pandemic, the rate of infections has resumed its increase in the United States and is poised to intensify in the coming weeks, RSM’s modeling shows. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims remain elevated at 860,000
The pace of firings in the economy remains well above anything observed during the Great Financial Crisis as 860,000 workers filed for first-time jobless claims for the week ending Sept. 12, a reflection of the deep scarring in the domestic labor market and economy. … READ MORE >
Monetary policy and inflation in the modern era
By adopting a flexible average inflation target, the Fed is using its most important tool — forward guidance – to infuse confidence in investors and the general public that it will do all it can to sustain the economic recovery needed in the wake of the coronavirus. … READ MORE >
FOMC comment: Fed follows through on its policy shift
Combined with the forward-looking interest rate forecast included in the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections, the FOMC’s statement shows that we are looking at five years at the least of rates remaining pinned to the zero boundary, if not far longer. … READ MORE >
Tracking the spread of COVID-19: A summer so foul
There have been more than 6.7 million cases of coronavirus infections and more than 198,000 deaths, according to the WorldoMeters database. Despite improvement in recent weeks, the rate of infections remains elevated heading into the fall. … READ MORE >
Savings, the money supply and inflation during a pandemic-induced recession
The changing structure of the economy, the integration of advanced technology, and broad demographic changes have contributed to the conditions that have all but ended the idea that inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon. … READ MORE >